Measuring and Modeling Repeat and Near-Repeat Burglary Effects
TL;DR: A mathematical framework aimed at analyzing repeat and near-repeat effects in crime data is developed, which model repeat victimization as a series of random events, the likelihood of which changes each time an offense occurs.
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Abstract: We develop a mathematical framework aimed at analyzing repeat and near-repeat effects in crime data. Parsing burglary data from Long Beach, CA according to different counting methods, we determine the probability distribution functions for the time interval τ between repeat offenses. We then compare these observed distributions to theoretically derived distributions in which the repeat effects are due solely to persistent risk heterogeneity. We find that risk heterogeneity alone cannot explain the observed distributions, while a form of event dependence (boosts) can. Using this information, we model repeat victimization as a series of random events, the likelihood of which changes each time an offense occurs. We are able to estimate typical time scales for repeat burglary events in Long Beach by fitting our data to this model. Computer simulations of this model using these observed parameters agree with the empirical data.
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References
An introduction to probability theory and its applications - 3/E. volume 3
William Feller
- 22 Mar 2002
Abstract: The classic text for understanding complex statistical probability An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications offers comprehensive explanations to complex statistical problems. Delving deep into densities and distributions while relating critical formulas, processes and approaches, this rigorous text provides a solid grounding in probability with practice problems throughout. Heavy on application without sacrificing theory, the discussion takes the time to explain difficult topics and how to use them. This new second edition includes new material related to the substitution of probabilistic arguments for combinatorial artifices as well as new sections on branching processes, Markov chains, and the DeMoivreLaplace theorem.
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A statistical model of criminal behavior
Martin B. Short,Maria R. D'Orsogna,V. B. Pasour,George E. Tita,P. J. Brantingham,Andrea L. Bertozzi,L. B. Chayes +6 more
TL;DR: This work focuses on a two-dimensional lattice model for residential burglary, where each site is characterized by a dynamic attractiveness variable, and where each criminal is represented as a random walker.
Space-time patterns of risk: A cross national assessment of residential burglary victimization
Shane D. Johnson,Wim Bernasco,Kate J. Bowers,Henk Elffers,Jerry H. Ratcliffe,George F. Rengert,Michael Kenneth Townsley +6 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed space-time patterns of burglary in 10 areas, located in five different countries, and found that houses within 200 m of a burgled home were at an elevated risk of burglary for a period of at least two weeks.
Infectious Burglaries. A Test of the Near Repeat Hypothesis
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explored one aspect of spatial dependence for the offence of burglary, utilising epidemiological methods for the study of infectious diseases to investigate the phenomenon of near repeat victimization.
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