Long-Term Growth Scenarios

Question

1. What are the future works in "Long-term growth scenarios" ?

2. What contributions have the authors mentioned in the paper "Long-term growth scenarios" ?

3. What could be done to provide some endogenous correction to such tendencies?

4. How long does it take to eliminate half the gap to the average fixed effects?

Accepted Answer

5. Further enriching the convergence framework.. At present, the main impact of policies on total factor productivity is through changes in product market regulation, but it might be possible to identify further empirical links between policy and the convergence process.. ETPT Potential employment of the total economy EXCH Exchange rate, USD per National currency GAP Output gap of the total economy GDP Gross domestic product, value, market prices GDPD Gross domestic product, value, at 2005 PPP, USD GDPPOP Gross domestic product per capita, volume, at 2005 PPP, USD GDPTR Potential output of total economy, value GDPV Gross domestic product, volume, market prices GDPVD Gross domestic product, volume, at 2005 PPP, USD GDPVTR Potential output of total economy, volume GFAR General government gross financial assets, as a percentage of GDP GGFL General government gross financial liabilities, value GGFLQ General government gross financial liabilities, as a percentage of GDP GGINTP Gross government interest payments, value GGINTPQ Gross government interest payments, as a percentage of GDP GGINTR Gross government interest receipts, value GGINTRQ Gross government interest receipts, as a percentage of GDP GNFL General government net financial liabilities, value GNFLQ General government net financial liabilities, as a percentage of GDP HSHARE Housing share of total investment IHV Gross fixed capital formation, housing, volume INFTARG Inflation target IRL Long-term interest rate on government bonds IRLR Real long-term interest rate on government bonds IRS Short-term interest rate IRSNEUT Country-specific neutral short-term interest rate ISK Stockbuilding, value IT Gross fixed capital formation, total, value ITISK Gross capital formation, value ITV Gross fixed capital formation, total, volume KBASE Baseline productive capital stock of the private sector, volume KSTAR Target productive capital stock of the private sector, volume KTPV Productive capital stock of the private sector, volume LIFEXP Life expectancy NLG Government net lending, value NLGA Cyclically adjusted government net lending, value NLGQ Government net lending, as a percentage of GDP NLGQA Cyclically adjusted government net lending, as a percentage of potential GDP NLGU Underlying government net lending, value NLGX Government primary balance, value NLGXA Cyclically adjusted government primary balance, value NLGXQU Underlying government primary balance, as a percentage of potential GDP NLGXU Underlying government primary balance, value OILBALQ. Energy, world price YBASE Baseline potential output, volume YPGA Cyclically adjusted current disbursements, general government, value YPGXA Cyclically adjusted current disbursements excluding interest, general government, value YRGA Cyclically adjusted current receipts, general government, value YRGXA Current receipts excluding gross interest receipts, general government, value

Accepted Answer

Johansson et al. this paper presented a model for the long-term growth of the world economy based on a new modelling framework.

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Accounting for net external debt positions and providing some feedback to either interest rate premia or saving could provide some endogenous correction to such tendencies.

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The rate at which the country fixed effects converge across countries implies that it takes around 27 years to eliminate half the initial gap to the average fixed effects.

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Whereas the stock of unemployed workers may not be affected by population ageing, some evidence suggests that average worker turnover may decrease as older workers display lower entry and exit rates into/from unemployment, which in turn may increase the risk of cyclical unemployment becoming structural.

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29 Demographic developments (combining the effect of changes in old-age and youth dependency ratios as well life expectancy) are estimated to reduce the private saving rate of the median OECD country by about 5 percentage points by 2060.

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policies that induce convergence towards best-practice labour force participation could raise living standards by close to 6% on average, with much larger effects in some countries.

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When these data are not available, external sources, such as IMF‟s World Economic Outlook (WEO), World Development Indicators (WDI) and national sources, are used.

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More generally, one way to envisage the outcome of structural policies aimed at sustaining labour force participation in the face of ageing is to assume that, over the projection period, the share of lifetime spent in the labour force remains unchanged despite gains in longevity.

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Over the past decades, themigration from rural to urban areas, and more particularly the shift of female workers out of the agricultural sector, has negatively affected the size of the labour force by reducing the number of family workers registered officially in the labour force.

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PPPs are therefore better suited than market exchange rates to making cross-country comparisons in living standards because market exchange rates underestimate current relative output levels of low-income countries and thus exacerbate cross-country income differences (e.g. Nordhaus, 2007).

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For those OECD countries which are major oil producers, most notably Norway, the impact of changes in oil production and prices on fiscal accounts could be identified.

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In addition, the level of the replacement rate and spending on ALMPs appear to be two important channels through which public policy may affect the medium-term unemployment rate.

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total population among the 42 countries included in this study is projected to increase by around 14% (from 4.5 to 5.2 billion).

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The long-term trend increase in average years of schooling per worker is assumed to continue in all countries, which has two countervailing effects on aggregate labour force participation.

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As countries develop, differences between PPPs and market exchange rates tend to decrease as productivity improvements in the tradable-goods sector increase the relative value of non-tradables.

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Due to these offsetting forces, the projected increase in educational attainment only moderately raises labour force participation -- on average by 0.5 percentage points in 2050, although the effect is noticeably larger in some countries (e.g. Turkey, Mexico, Korea, Italy and Hungary).

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In the 12 OECD countries for which data on gender and age-specific labour force participation areavailable, average labour force participation among women (aged 15 years and above) increased by roughly 8 percentage points (from 47% to 55%) between 1980 and 2010.

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The availability of private sector credit in the economy (relative to GDP) is assumed to gradually catch-up with the situation in the United States -- where private credit is assumed to remain constant at around 200% of GDP -- with the gap assumed to close at 2% per annum.

Long-Term Growth Scenarios

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Most frequently asked questions

1. What are the future works in "Long-term growth scenarios" ?

2. What contributions have the authors mentioned in the paper "Long-term growth scenarios" ?

3. What could be done to provide some endogenous correction to such tendencies?

4. How long does it take to eliminate half the gap to the average fixed effects?

5. What is the effect of population ageing on the stock of unemployed workers?

6. How much will the private saving rate of the OECD country be reduced by 2060?

7. How much could a policy that induces convergence towards best-practice labour force participation raise?

8. What are the sources of data used when the BRICs are not available?

9. What is the way to envisage the outcome of structural policies aimed at sustaining labour force?

10. What is the effect of the migration from rural to urban areas on the labour force?

11. Why are PPPs better suited to making cross-country comparisons?

12. What is the main impact of changes in oil production and prices on fiscal accounts?

13. How does the tax wedge affect the unemployment rate?

14. How much population is projected to increase in the countries included in this study?

15. What is the effect of the long-term trend increase in average years of schooling per worker?

16. What is the effect of PPPs on the exchange rate of non-tradable goods?

17. Why is the increase in educational attainment only moderately higher in some countries?

18. How much did the average labour force participation among women increase between 1980 and 2010?

19. How is the gap between private sector credit and the United States assumed to be closed?

Figures

Citations

Evolving patterns and impacts of migration: Global societal trends to 2030: Thematic report 4

Horizon 2060 : Perspectives de croissance économique globale à long terme: Un rapport "Objectif croissance"

Employment and Skills in Finland

The importance of complementary policy for ICT in the EU

Well-being analytics for policy use

References

An introduction to the bootstrap

A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth

An Introduction to the Bootstrap.

Schooling, Experience, and Earnings

Why Do Some Countries Produce so Much More Output Per Worker than Others

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