Journal Article10.1002/QJ.2640
Improved stochastic physics schemes for global weather and climate models
95
TL;DR: In this article, a new configuration of stochastic physics schemes for the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) was developed, which consists of an improved Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter v2 (SKEB2), plus the stochastic Perturbation of Tendencies (SPT).
read more
Abstract: The importance of probabilistic weather predictions and climate projections is growing. One of the key elements of the former is stochastic physics, schemes that perturb some uncertain processes in a general circulation model (GCM), such as physical parametrizations or diffusion. They help to increase the ensemble dispersion of ensemble prediction systems (EPS) and in some cases improve certain atmospheric processes by noise-induced drifts. We have developed a new configuration of stochastic physics schemes for the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). It consists of an improved Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter v2 (SKEB2), plus the Stochastic Perturbation of Tendencies (SPT).
The improvements to SKEB2 remove spurious physical artefacts, e.g. a spurious wave caused by low-wave-number perturbations, and improve the resolution sensitivity of the scheme. The SPT produces a larger ensemble spread in the Tropics than present schemes, but its impact on long-term climate budgets makes the use of conservation constraints for water vapour and energy essential.
The new configuration produces a higher impact in the Tropics, increasing the ensemble spread and improving some long-standing climate biases in areas of excessive convection, whilst minimizing the negative impact on tropical processes like tropical convective waves.
read more
Chat with Paper
AI Agents for this Paper
Find similar papers on Google Scholar, PubMed and Arxiv
Write a critical review of this paper
Analyze citations of this paper to find unaddressed research gaps
Citations
The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 7.0/7.1 and JULES Global Land 7.0 configurations
David N. Walters,Anthony J. Baran,Anthony J. Baran,Ian A. Boutle,M. E. Brooks,Paul Earnshaw,John M. Edwards,Kalli Furtado,Peter Hill,Adrian Lock,James Manners,Cyril J. Morcrette,Jane Mulcahy,Claudio Sanchez,Chris Smith,Rachel Stratton,Warren Tennant,Lorenzo Tomassini,Kwinten Van Weverberg,Simon Vosper,Martin Willett,J. Browse,Andrew C. Bushell,Kenneth S. Carslaw,Mohit Dalvi,Richard Essery,Nicola Gedney,Steven C. Hardiman,Ben Johnson,Colin E. Johnson,Andrew Jones,Colin Jones,Graham Mann,Sean Milton,Heather Rumbold,Alistair Sellar,Masashi Ujiie,Michael Whitall,Keith D. Williams,M. Zerroukat +39 more
TL;DR: The Global Atmosphere 3.0 (GA3.0) as mentioned in this paper is a configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) developed for use across climate research and weather prediction activities.
The Met Office Global Coupled Model 3.0 and 3.1 (GC3.0 and GC3.1) Configurations
Keith D. Williams,Dan Copsey,Edward W. Blockley,Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo,Daley Calvert,Ruth E. Comer,Philip Davis,Tim Graham,Helene T. Hewitt,Richard Hill,Patrick Hyder,Sarah Ineson,T. C. Johns,A. B. Keen,Robert W. Lee,Alex Megann,Sean Milton,J. G. L. Rae,Malcolm J. Roberts,Adam A. Scaife,Reinhard Schiemann,D. Storkey,Livia Thorpe,I. G. Watterson,David N. Walters,Alex West,Richard Wood,Tim Woollings,Prince K. Xavier +28 more
TL;DR: The Global Coupled 3 (GC3) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model is presented in this paper, which is the basis of the United Kingdom's submission to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6).
626
Stochastic Parameterization: Towards a new view of Weather and Climate Models
Judith Berner,Ulrich Achatz,Lauriane Batté,Lisa Bengtsson,Alvaro de la Camara,Hannah M. Christensen,Matteo Colangeli,Danielle R. B. Coleman,Daaaan Crommelin,Stamen Dolaptchiev,Christian Franzke,Petra Friederichs,Peter Imkeller,Heikki Järvinen,Stephan Juricke,Vassili Kitsios,François Lott,Valerio Lucarini,Salil Mahajan,Tim Palmer,Cécile Penland,Mirjana Sakradzija,Jin-Song von Storch,Antje Weisheimer,Michael Weniger,Paul Williams,Jun-Ichi Yano +26 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors make a case that the use of stochastic representation of unresolved processes in the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and cryosphere of comprehensive weather and climate models gives rise to more reliable probabilistic forecasts of weather, and reduces systematic model bias.
Impact of Model Resolution on Tropical Cyclone Simulation Using the HighResMIP–PRIMAVERA Multimodel Ensemble
Malcolm J. Roberts,Joanne Camp,Jon Seddon,Pier Luigi Vidale,Kevin I. Hodges,Benoit Vanniere,Jenny Mecking,Rein Haarsma,Alessio Bellucci,Enrico Scoccimarro,Louis-Philippe Caron,Fabrice Chauvin,Laurent Terray,Sophie Valcke,M. P. Moine,Dian Putrasahan,Christopher D. Roberts,Retish Senan,Colin M. Zarzycki,Paul A. Ullrich +19 more
TL;DR: In this article, a multimodel, multiresolution set of simulations over the period 1950-2014 using a common forcing protocol from CMIP6 HighResMIP have been completed by six modeling groups.
Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision
Martin Leutbecher,Sarah-Jane Lock,Pirkka Ollinaho,Simon T. K. Lang,Gianpaolo Balsamo,Peter Bechtold,Massimo Bonavita,Hannah M. Christensen,Michail Diamantakis,Emanuel Dutra,Stephen English,Michael Fisher,Richard G. Forbes,Jacqueline Goddard,Thomas Haiden,Robin J. Hogan,Stephan Juricke,Heather Lawrence,Dave MacLeod,Linus Magnusson,Sylvie Malardel,Sebastien Massart,Irina Sandu,Piotr K. Smolarkiewicz,Aneesh C. Subramanian,Frederic Vitart,Nils Wedi,Antje Weisheimer,Antje Weisheimer +28 more
TL;DR: Recent progress, challenges and future directions regarding stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF are described in this paper.
References
Mechanisms of midlatitude cross‐tropopause transport using a potential vorticity budget approach
TL;DR: In this article, a potential vorticity (PV) budget method has been used to attribute vertical transport across the near-tropopause (1 PVU surface) in extratropical weather systems to radiative, latent heating and cooling, and mixing processes.
An Analysis of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves in 20 WCRP CMIP3 Global Coupled Climate Models
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed output from 20 coupled global climate models to determine whether convectively coupled Kelvin waves exist in the models, and, if so, how their horizontal and vertical structures compare to observations.
Influence of a stochastic parameterization on the frequency of occurrence of North Pacific weather regimes in the ECMWF model
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used the ECMWF model to investigate whether the use of stochastic parameterizations help reduce the overestimation of the mean westerly winds in the mid-latitude North Pacific.
Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system
TL;DR: It is found that the stochastic tendency perturbation schemes helped to reduce excessively strong convective activity especially over the Maritime Continent and the tropical Western Pacific, leading to reduced biases of the outgoing longwave radiation, cloud cover, precipitation and near-surface winds.
Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking as simulated by 15 atmospheric general circulation models in the period 1979–1988
Fabio D'Andrea,Stefano Tibaldi,Michael Blackburn,George J. Boer,Michel Déqué,Martin Dix,B. Dugas,Laura Ferranti,Toshiki Iwasaki,Akio Kitoh,V. D. Pope,David A. Randall,Erich Roeckner,D. Strauss,W. Stern,H. Van den Dool,David L. Williamson +16 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the behavior of 15 general circulation models has been analyzed in order to diagnose and compare the ability of the different models in simulating Northern Hemisphere midlatitude atmospheric blocking, and a few common features can be found, such as the general tendency to underestimate both blocking frequency and the average duration of blocks.
Related Papers (5)
Martin Leutbecher,Sarah-Jane Lock,Pirkka Ollinaho,Simon T. K. Lang,Gianpaolo Balsamo,Peter Bechtold,Massimo Bonavita,Hannah M. Christensen,Michail Diamantakis,Emanuel Dutra,Stephen English,Michael Fisher,Richard G. Forbes,Jacqueline Goddard,Thomas Haiden,Robin J. Hogan,Stephan Juricke,Heather Lawrence,Dave MacLeod,Linus Magnusson,Sylvie Malardel,Sebastien Massart,Irina Sandu,Piotr K. Smolarkiewicz,Aneesh C. Subramanian,Frederic Vitart,Nils Wedi,Antje Weisheimer,Antje Weisheimer +28 more