How big is an outbreak likely to be? Methods for epidemic final-size calculation
Thomas House,Joshua V. Ross,David Sirl +2 more
TL;DR: This work considers methods for evaluating the probability mass function of the total number of infections over the course of a stochastic epidemic, with a focus on homogeneous finite populations, but also considering heterogeneous and large populations.
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Abstract: Epidemic models have become a routinely used tool to inform policy on infectious disease A particular interest at the moment is the use of computationally intensive inference to parametrize these models In this context, numerical efficiency is critically important We consider methods for evaluating the probability mass function of the total number of infections over the course of a stochastic epidemic, with a focus on homogeneous finite populations, but also considering heterogeneous and large populations Relevant methods are reviewed critically, with existing and novel extensions also presented We provide code in MATLAB and a systematic comparison of numerical efficiency
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Citations
Dynamics of Multi-stage Infections on Networks
B K. B. Blyuss
- 01 Jan 2015
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the dynamics of infectious diseases with a non-exponential distributed infectious period and showed that a higher number of stages results in faster epidemic outbreaks with a higher peak prevalence and a larger final size of the epi- demic.
•Posted Content
Assessing the impact of non-vaccinators: quantifying the average length of infection chains in outbreaks of vaccine-preventable disease
TL;DR: Estimates of ANDI are obtained using both deterministic and stochastic modelling formalisms, finding that even for relatively small community sizes and under most scenarios for R0 and initial fraction vaccinated, ANDI can be surprisingly large when the effective reproduction number is >1, leading to high probabilities of adverse outcomes for one or more people down an average chain of infection in outbreaks of diseases like measles.
•Dissertation
Modelling health behaviour
Daniel Alexander Sprague
- 01 Jun 2015
TL;DR: A quantitative model of health behaviour that takes into account individual-level barriers, the health system, and spread between individuals is introduced, and it is believed that it provides a valuable tool for informing policies to combat disease.
Heterogeneity can markedly increase final outbreak size in the SIR model of epidemics
Alexander Leibenzon,Michael Assaf +1 more
- 15 Jun 2023
TL;DR: In this paper , the SIR model of epidemics on positively correlated heterogeneous networks with population variability was studied, and the dependence of the final outbreak size on the network heterogeneity strength and basic reproduction number was explored.
Data Forecasts of the Epidemic COVID-19 by Deterministic and Stochastic Time-Dependent Models (preprint)
Boqiang Chen,Zong-Ying Wu,Yen-Jia Chen,J. L. Chern +3 more
- 07 Sep 2022
TL;DR: In this paper , a deterministic SAIVRD model and a stochastic SARV model were proposed to conduct data forecasts using time-dependent parameters for the COVID-19 epidemic.
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