Frequency-dependent selection can forecast evolution in Streptococcus pneumoniae
Taj Azarian,Taj Azarian,Pamela P. Martinez,Brian J. Arnold,Xueting Qiu,Lindsay R. Grant,Jukka Corander,Jukka Corander,Jukka Corander,Christophe Fraser,Nicholas J. Croucher,Laura L. Hammitt,Raymond Reid,Mathuram Santosham,Robert Weatherholtz,Stephen D. Bentley,Katherine L. O’Brien,Marc Lipsitch,William P. Hanage +18 more
TL;DR: The frequencies of accessory genes are used to predict changes in the pneumococcal population after vaccination, hypothesizing that these frequencies reflect negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) on the gene products.
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Abstract: Predicting how pathogen populations will change over time is challenging. Such has been the case with Streptococcus pneumoniae, an important human pathogen, and the pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), which target only a fraction of the strains in the population. Here, we use the frequencies of accessory genes to predict changes in the pneumococcal population after vaccination, hypothesizing that these frequencies reflect negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) on the gene products. We find that the standardized predicted fitness of a strain, estimated by an NFDS-based model at the time the vaccine is introduced, enables us to predict whether the strain increases or decreases in prevalence following vaccination. Further, we are able to forecast the equilibrium post-vaccine population composition and assess the invasion capacity of emerging lineages. Overall, we provide a method for predicting the impact of an intervention on pneumococcal populations with potential application to other bacterial pathogens in which NFDS is a driving force.
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Global spatial dynamics and vaccine-induced fitness changes of Bordetella pertussis
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Negative frequency-dependent selection and asymmetrical transformation stabilise multi-strain bacterial population structures
Gabrielle L. Harrow,John A. Lees,William P. Hanage,Marc Lipsitch,Jukka Corander,Jukka Corander,Jukka Corander,Caroline Colijn,Caroline Colijn,Nicholas J. Croucher +9 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors showed that the combination of asymmetrical recombination and multi-locus negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) could restore multi-strain population structures from randomised initial populations.
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