Formal aspects of model validity and validation in system dynamics
1.5K
TL;DR: This paper focuses on the formal aspects of validation and presents a taxonomy of various aspects and steps of formal model validation, including structure-oriented behavior tests, which seem to be the most promising direction for research on model validation.
read more
Abstract: Model validation constitutes a very important step in system dynamics methodology. Yet, both published and informal evidence indicates that there has been little effort in system dynamics community explicitly devoted to model validity and validation. Validation is a prolonged and complicated process, involving both formal/quantitative tools and informal/qualitative ones. This paper focuses on the formal aspects of validation and presents a taxonomy of various aspects and steps of formal model validation. First, there is a very brief discussion of the philosophical issues involved in model validation, followed by a flowchart that describes the logical sequence in which various validation activities must be carried out. The crucial nature of structure validity in system dynamics (causal-descriptive) models is emphasized. Then examples are given of specific validity tests used in each of the three major stages of model validation: Structural tests, structure-oriented behavior tests and behavior pattern tests. Also discussed is if and to what extent statistical significance tests can be used in model validation. Among the three validation stages, the special importance of structure-oriented behavior tests is emphasized. These are strong behavior tests that can provide information on potential structure flaws. Since structure-oriented behavior tests combine the strength of structural orientation with the advantage of being quantifiable, they seem to be the most promising direction for research on model validation.
read more
Chat with Paper
AI Agents for this Paper
Find similar papers on Google Scholar, PubMed and Arxiv
Write a critical review of this paper
Analyze citations of this paper to find unaddressed research gaps
Citations
Does a reduction in the price of rhino horn prevent poaching
TL;DR: An open access rhino poaching model is developed for South African rhino, which indicates that reducing the price of rhino horn would not be effective at curbing poaching, unless poacher costs are also increased.
19
Simulation modeling of operation and coordination of agencies involved in post-disaster response and recovery
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors proposed a hybrid framework that facilitates the probabilistic modeling of responsible agencies' post-disaster performance and coordination, which is applied to a virtual community where several agencies must operate and collaborate to respond to an earthquake.
19
•Posted Content
Harvesting synergy from Sustainable Development Goal interactions
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a method for identifying and quantifying these synergetic interactions and assessing them quantitatively, and also introduce a typology of five classes of synergy that enables an understanding of their structures.
19
Participative Modelling of Socio‐Technical Transitions: Why and How Should We Look Beyond the Case‐Specific Energy Transition Challenge?
Silvia Ulli-Beer,Merla Kubli,Merla Kubli,Juliana Zapata,Michael Wurzinger,Jörg Musiolik,Bettina Furrer +6 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a process framework for generic participative modeling based on system dynamics modelling and socio-technical transition frameworks and applied it to the Swiss energy transition workshop series.
19
Leverage points to march “upward from the aimless plateau”
TL;DR: Forrester as discussed by the authors argues that most of us are unqualified, poor modelers, turning out low-quality models of problems that have no relevance to the real world! This is quite dramatic, given the fact that modeling is essentially what (we think) we do.
19
References
Simultaneous Statistical Inference
Rupert G. Miller
TL;DR: Simultaneous Statistical Inference is an outdated book that has been out of print since 1973.
5.3K
•Book
Simultaneous Statistical Inference
Rupert G. Miller
- 01 Jan 1966
TL;DR: In this article, the authors presented a case of two means regression method for the family error rate, which was used to estimate the probability of a family having a nonzero family error.
4.7K
Modeling managerial behavior: misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors report an experiment on the generation of macrodynamics from microstructure in a common managerial context, where subjects manage a simulated inventory distribution system which contains multiple actors, feedbacks, nonlinearities, and time delays.
•Posted Content
Verification and validation of simulation models
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a survey of verification and validation of simulation models in operations research, focusing on good programming practice (such as modular programming), checking intermediate simulation outputs through tracing and statistical testing per module, statistical testing of final simulation outputs against analytical results, and animation.
1.6K