Foreign Trade

China's domestic politics and foreign policy have evolved considerably under President Xi Jinping. Domestically the regime has actively promoted the idea of the ‘China dream’ to restore optimism and enthusiasm about its future, particularly among young people. Yet it has also sought to differentiate the socialist China dream from any resemblance to the American dream. Its main emphasis is on making China ‘strong and powerful’ again. In foreign policy, the leadership has become more active. While China has pursued a more robust policy in the South China Sea, it has also launched two extremely ambitious long-term projects to expand land and maritime transport links between China and Europe, termed the ‘one belt, one road’ initiative. They aim to promote development of western China, but if successful, they should also help to transform economic relations across large parts of Eurasia. In geopolitical terms, they will expand China's shadow over regions of the world where hitherto its presence has been relatively modest. They should strengthen links with Europe, as well as with other countries along the routes, to counterbalance potentially conflictual relations with the US. However, success will require active and enthusiastic cooperation from many neighbours. For that reason the risks are as great as the ambition.

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Westward ho—the China dream and ‘one belt, one road’: Chinese foreign policy under Xi Jinping

Chapter 1: China looks west Chapter 2: Rome looks east Chapter 3: The Kushan Empire and the Silk Road Chapter 4: The golden age: The Byzantine Empire (310-1453 CE) and Tang China (618-906 CE) Chapter 5: The coming of Islam Chapter 6: Religions, languages, and artistic styles of the Silk Road

The Silk Road in world history

Part I: Introduction Chapter 1: Tangled Titans: Conceptualizing the U.S.-China Relationship David Shambaugh Part II: The Historical Context Chapter 2: The Evolution of U.S.-China Relations Nancy Bernkopf Tucker Part III: The Theoretical Context Chapter 3: The Rise of China, the United States, and the Future of the Liberal International Order G. John Ikenberry Chapter 4: U.S.-China Relations in a Realist World Ashley J. Tellis Part IV: The Domestic Context Chapter 5: Domestic American Influences on U.S.-China Relations Robert Sutter Chapter 6: Domestic Chinese Influences on U.S.-China Relations Yufan Hao Part V: The Bilateral Context Chapter 7: The Diplomatic Relationship: Substance and Process Bonnie S. Glaser Chapter 8: The Commercial and Economic Relationship Charles W. Freeman III Chapter 9: The Cultural Relationship Terry Lautz Chapter 10: The Military-Security Relationship Christopher P. Twomey Part VI: The Regional Context Chapter 11: U.S.-China Interactions in Asia Avery Goldstein Chapter 12: Taiwan in U.S.-China Relations Shelley Rigger Part VII: The Global Context Chapter 13: U.S.-China Interactions in the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and Latin America David Shambaugh and Dawn Murphy Chapter 14: U.S.-China Interactions in Global Governance and International Organizations Rosemary Foot Part VIII: Visions for the Future Chapter 15: Chinese Visions of the Future of U.S.-China Relations Wu Xinbo Chapter 16: American Visions of the Future of U.S.-China Relations: Competition, Cooperation and Conflict Harry Harding

Tangled Titans: The United States and China

Central Asia and the Silk Road

This paper provides a framework to assess the impact of infrastructure investment expected under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the debt vulnerabilities of countries that are located on BRI transport and connectivity corridors in the absence of comprehensive and consistent information on investments and financing terms. Key assumptions relate to the amount of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt financing and its terms, the size and sectoral type of identified BRI investment, and the expected impact of growth in the medium and long term of that investment. BRI debt financing is expected significantly increase PPG debt in a number of countries. The paper provides estimates for both the medium and the long term. In the medium term, defined as the period 2019-2023, debt financing of BRI investment is expected to be fully disbursed while the full growth impact of BRI related infrastructure is not entirely realized. In this initial phase, around one-third of assessed BRI-recipient countries are estimated to face elevated debt vulnerabilities post- BRI, several of which have already high debt vulnerabilities. The impact of BRI on public debt would improve over the longer term under the assumption of a sustained negative interest rate-growth differential and in the absence of the materialization of BRI related fiscal risks. Still, debt to GDP ratio is expected to remain higher in one-third of countries (11 out of 30 with available data).

A Framework to Assess Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Risks under the Belt and Road Initiative

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References

Westward ho—the China dream and ‘one belt, one road’: Chinese foreign policy under Xi Jinping

The Silk Road in world history

Tangled Titans: The United States and China

Central Asia and the Silk Road

A Framework to Assess Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Risks under the Belt and Road Initiative

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