Journal Article10.3390/en16186421
Exploring Model-Based Decarbonization and Energy Efficiency Scenarios with PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN
Panagiotis Fragkos,Francesco Dalla Longa,Eleftheria Zisarou,Bob van der Zwaan,A. Giannousakis,Amir Fattahi +5 more
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TL;DR: Exploring model-based decarbonization and energy efficiency scenarios with PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN reveals similar responses of both models to carbon pricing, with PROMETHEUS being more sensitive. The study identifies key sensitivities to technology costs, global energy prices, and carbon pricing, highlighting the importance of these factors in driving decarbonization efforts.
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Abstract: This study provides a quantitative analysis of future energy–climate developments at the global level using two well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN. The research aims to explore the results of these IAMs and identify avenues for improvement to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. The study focuses on the effects of varying assumptions for key model drivers, including carbon prices, technology costs, and global energy prices, within the context of stringent decarbonization policies. Diagnostic scenarios are utilized to assess the behavior of the models under varying exogenous assumptions for key drivers, aiming to verify the accuracy and reliability of the models and identify areas for optimization. The findings of this research demonstrate that both PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN exhibit similar responses to carbon pricing, with PROMETHEUS being more sensitive to this parameter than TIAM-ECN. The results highlight the importance of carbon pricing as an effective policy tool to drive decarbonization efforts. Additionally, the study reveals that variations in technology costs and global energy prices significantly impact the outcomes of the models. The identified sensitivities and responses of the IAMs to key model drivers offer guidance for policymakers to refine their policy decisions and develop effective strategies aligned with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. By understanding the behavior of the models under different assumptions, policymakers can make informed decisions to optimize decarbonization pathways and enhance the likelihood of meeting global climate goals.
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Citations
Exploring the Impacts of Lifestyle Changes in the Global Energy Transition: Insights from a Model-Based Analysis Using PROMETHEUS
TL;DR: This study uses the PROMETHEUS model to analyze the impact of lifestyle changes on global energy consumption and CO2 emissions, finding that even under current policies, lifestyle changes can reduce energy demand by 5-10% by 2030-2050, and up to 35% with ambitious decarbonization policies.
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