Evolution: Selection for positive illusions
TL;DR: Game theory is used to model the situations under which overconfidence is an advantage, and Dominic Johnson and James Fowler find that they occupy a large part of the parameter space and show that overconfidence and conflict tend to increase with greater resource availability.
read more
Abstract: Everybody knows that overconfidence can be foolhardy. But a study reveals that having an overly positive self-image might confer an evolutionary advantage if the rewards outweigh the risks. See Letter p.317
Overconfidence is a major puzzle in evolutionary biology, economics and political science, because despite causing costly errors and policy failures, it remains a widespread bias in human judgement and decision-making. Animals too, in examples seen during conflict behaviour, are liable to overconfidence. Dominic Johnson and James Fowler use game theory to model the situations under which overconfidence is an advantage, and find that they occupy a large part of the parameter space. They also show that overconfidence and conflict tend to increase with greater resource availability. As long as the prize at stake sufficiently exceeds the cost of competing for it, it seems, fortune favours the brave.
read more
Chat with Paper
AI Agents for this Paper
Find similar papers on Google Scholar, PubMed and Arxiv
Write a critical review of this paper
Analyze citations of this paper to find unaddressed research gaps
Citations
Cognitive sophistication does not attenuate the bias blind spot.
TL;DR: In 2 studies, replicable bias blind spots are found with respect to many of the classic cognitive biases studied in the heuristics and biases literature (e.g., Tversky & Kahneman, 1974).
357
Effects of group sensitivity on cooperation in N-person snowdrift game with dynamic grouping
TL;DR: In this article, the authors studied the coevolution of the preferred group sizes and the frequencies of cooperators and found that the widespread of cooperation is closely related to the degree of an individual's group sensitivity.
11
The ethics of providing hope in psychotherapy.
Justine Dembo,Norman A. Clemens +1 more
TL;DR: It may occasionally be ethical to encourage some degree of optimistic bias, and perhaps even positive illusion, when treating patients in psychotherapy, according to the surprising outcomes of two case examples.
8
Experiences encouraging creativity and team work in a content and language integrated learning framework at university
J. López Puga
- 01 Jan 2011
TL;DR: In this article, a group of 88 students of psychology enrolled in the subject Psychometrics at the Universidad de Almeria participated in that study, where a creative and collaborative task was proposed to add extra mark to the individual curriculum of each student (creating a short film in English about a scientific essay related with the content of the subject).
2
Adaptación de la Escala de Realismo de Liang y Dunn para emprendedores potenciales / Adaptation to Spanish of the Liang and Dunn’s realism scale for potential entrepreneurs
Jorge López Puga,Ana María Ruiz-Ruano García +1 more
- 01 Jan 2015
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide a Spanish adapted version of the Liang and Dunn (2010a) scale of realism and show that the realism scale is unifactorial and characterized by acceptable internal consistence ( α =.83, 90% CI =.76 -.83).
References
Illusion and well-being: a social psychological perspective on mental health
TL;DR: Research suggesting that certain illusions may be adaptive for mental health and well-being is reviewed, examining evidence that a set of interrelated positive illusions—namely, unrealistically positive self-evaluations, exaggerated perceptions of control or mastery, and unrealistic optimism—can serve a wide variety of cognitive, affective, and social functions.
Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments.
Justin Kruger,David Dunning +1 more
TL;DR: Across 4 studies, the authors found that participants scoring in the bottom quartile on tests of humor, grammar, and logic grossly overestimated their test performance and ability.
Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment
Brad M. Barber,Terrance Odean +1 more
TL;DR: Theoretical models predict that overconedent investors trade excessively as mentioned in this paper, and they test this prediction by partitioning investors on gender by analyzing the common stock investments of men and women from February 1991 through January 1997.
Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment
Brad M. Barber,Terrance Odean +1 more
TL;DR: For example, this paper found that men trade 45 percent more than women and earn annual risk-adjusted net returns that are 1.4 percent less than those earned by women, while women perform worse than men.
4.2K
Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers
TL;DR: In this paper, the results showed that a majority of subjects regarded themselves as more skillful and less risky than the average driver in each group respectively, compared with similar recent findings in other fields.
2.1K