Estimating Group Properties in Online Social Networks with a Classifier

TL;DR: Simulated and empirical graphs show that this procedure performs well compared to optimal baselines in a variety of circumstances, while indicating that variance increases can be large for low-recall classifiers.

Abstract: We consider the problem of obtaining unbiased estimates of group properties in social networks when using a classifier for node labels. Inference for this problem is complicated by two factors: the network is not known and must be crawled, and even high-performance classifiers provide biased estimates of group proportions. We propose and evaluate AdjustedWalk for addressing this problem. This is a three step procedure which entails: (1) walking the graph starting from an arbitrary node; (2) learning a classifier on the nodes in the walk; and (3) applying a post-hoc adjustment to classification labels. The walk step provides the information necessary to make inferences over the nodes and edges, while the adjustment step corrects for classifier bias in estimating group proportions. This process provides de-biased estimates at the cost of additional variance. We evaluate AdjustedWalk on four tasks: the proportion of nodes belonging to a minority group, the proportion of the minority group among high degree nodes, the proportion of within-group edges, and Coleman’s homophily index. Simulated and empirical graphs show that this procedure performs well compared to optimal baselines in a variety of circumstances, while indicating that variance increases can be large for low-recall classifiers.