Open AccessPosted Content
Can subjective survival expectations explain retirement behaviour
42
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used data from the first three waves of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing to test whether the timing of retirement is responsive to subjective survival expectations, and they found a significant concave relationship between the propensity to retire and survival expectations.
read more
Abstract: Theory predicts a number of mechanisms through which survival expectations influence retirement decisions: a wealth effect of a longer lifespan; an uncertainty effect through the return on savings; a longevity risk effect; and, an adverse selection effect from pooling within pensions. We use data from the first three waves of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing to test whether the timing of retirement is responsive to subjective survival expectations. Measurement error in reported survival chances is allowed for by instrumenting using parental longevity and smoking behaviour. We find a significant concave relationship between the propensity to retire and survival expectations. Men who are extremely pessimistic about their survival chances are least likely to retire, but after initially rising steeply the propensity to retire falls as survival expectations improve over most of their range. This is consistent with some of the theory. For women, the results are more sensitive to allowing for endogeneity. Surprisingly, the retirement behaviour of the less educated is more sensitive to survival expectations.
read more
Chat with Paper
AI Agents for this Paper
Find similar papers on Google Scholar, PubMed and Arxiv
Write a critical review of this paper
Analyze citations of this paper to find unaddressed research gaps
Citations
Die young or live long: modeling subjective survival probabilities
TL;DR: This article used survey data on subjective survival probabilities over a range of target ages and from an array of age cohorts to estimate individual subjective scalings of population mortality probabilities and showed that both cohort age and target age matter: respondents are generally pessimistic about overall life expectancy, but are optimistic about their probability of surviving to advanced ages.
16
Wealth and the effect of subjective survival probability
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined whether subjective survival probability (SSP), a proxy measure of self-assessed life expectancy, affects retirement wealth among the pre-retirement older population in Ireland.
Langer leven, langer werken?De rol van gepercipieerde levensverwachting in het uittredeproces
H. van Solinge,C.J.I.M. Henkens +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used regression and survival models to examine the effect of subjective life expectancy on retirement planning and behaviour of older employees in the Netherlands, and found that older employees with longer time horizons have a preference for later retirement.
10
Life Cycle Saving and Dissaving Revisited across Three-tiered Income Groups
Robert Holzmann,Mercedes Ayuso,Estefanía Alaminos,Jorge Miguel Bravo +3 more
- 01 Jul 2019
TL;DR: Holzmann et al. as mentioned in this paper revisited life cycle saving and dissaving across three-tiered income groups: starting hypotheses, refinement through literature review, and ideas for empirical testing.
Subjective health expectations
Kim P. Huynh,Juergen Jung +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, subjective health expectations are derived using data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study (HRS) using a Bayesian updating mechanism to correct for focal point responses and reporting errors of the original health expectations variable.
9
References
•Book
Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data
Jeffrey M. Wooldridge
- 01 Jan 2001
TL;DR: This is the essential companion to Jeffrey Wooldridge's widely-used graduate text Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data (MIT Press, 2001).
Inverse probability weighted estimation for general missing data problems
TL;DR: The authors study inverse probability weighted M-estimation with missing data due to a censored survival time, propensity score estimation of the average treatment effect in the linear exponential family, and variable probability sampling with observed retention frequencies.
1K
Mortality Risk and Bequests
TL;DR: In this article, a lifetime utility model, in which the date of death is uncertain and in which bequests give utility, is analyzed and estimated, and the parameter estimates imply that most inheritances are accidental, the result of mortality risk and the shape of the desired consumption path is sensitive to variations in mortality rates.
811
Pensions, the option value of work, and retirement
James H. Stock,David A. Wise +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a new model of retirement and uses it to estimate the effects of pension plan provisions on the departure rates of older salesmen from a large Fortune 500 firm.