Bounded rationality: the two cultures
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compare the idealistic and pragmatic cultures of bounded rationality, and show that the pragmatic culture is empowering: if people are educated to use the right tool in the right situation, they do well.
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Abstract: Research on bounded rationality has two cultures, which I call ‘idealistic’ and ‘pragmatic’. Technically, the cultures differ on whether they (1) build models based on normative axioms or empirical facts, (2) assume that people's goal is to optimize or to satisfice, (3) do not or do model psychological processes, (4) let parameters vary freely or fix them, (5) aim at explanation or prediction and (6) test models from one or both cultures. Each culture tells a story about people's rationality. The story of the idealistic culture is frustrating, with people in principle being able to know what they should do, but in practice systematically failing to do it. This story makes one hide in books for intellectual solace or surrender to the designs of someone smarter. The story of the pragmatic culture is empowering: If people are educated to use the right tool in the right situation, they do well.
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Citations
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References
Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk
Daniel Kahneman,Amos Tversky +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a critique of expected utility theory as a descriptive model of decision making under risk, and develop an alternative model, called prospect theory, in which value is assigned to gains and losses rather than to final assets and in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights.
•Book
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Amos Tversky,Daniel Kahneman +1 more
- 01 Jan 1974
TL;DR: The authors described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: representativeness, availability of instances or scenarios, and adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available.
•Book
Theory of Games and Economic Behavior
John von Neumann,Oskar Morgenstern +1 more
- 01 Jan 1944
TL;DR: Theory of games and economic behavior as mentioned in this paper is the classic work upon which modern-day game theory is based, and it has been widely used to analyze a host of real-world phenomena from arms races to optimal policy choices of presidential candidates, from vaccination policy to major league baseball salary negotiations.
•Journal Article
Judgement under uncertainty: heuristics and biasis
A Tversky,D Kahneman +1 more
Abstract: This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty.
19.3K
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