Journal Article10.2139/SSRN.3523222
Belief Elicitation with Binary Outcomes: A Comparison of Quadratic and Binarized Scoring Rules
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TL;DR: It is found that reported beliefs are less accurate under the quadratic scoring rule than the BSR at the aggregate level, and risk-averse subjects tend to distort their reported beliefs under the QSR.
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Abstract: It is becoming increasingly common for researchers to elicit individuals’ beliefs in controlled experiments to understand the underlying motivations of decision makers. We evaluate the performance of the quadratic scoring rule (QSR) and the binarized scoring rule (BSR) in an environment where subjects report probabilistic beliefs over binary outcomes when the probabilities are objectively known to them. We find that reported beliefs are less accurate under the QSR than the BSR at the aggregate level. Consistent with theoretical predictions, risk-averse subjects tend to distort their reported beliefs under the QSR.
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Citations
•Posted Content
Risk aversion elicitation: reconciling tractability and bias minimization
TL;DR: This article focuses on a tractable procedure initially proposed by Holt and Laury (2002) to elicit risk attitude and generalizes this method to measure utility and risk aversion, and uses the outcome scale rather than the probability scale in the menu of choices.
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•Posted Content
A Penny for Your Thoughts:A Survey of Methods for Eliciting Beliefs
Karl H. Schlag,James Tremewan,Joel J. van der Weele,Joel J. van der Weele,Joel J. van der Weele +4 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the most prominent elicitation methods and their underlying assumptions, provide theoretical comparisons, and propose some extensions to the standard framework, considering also practical issues of implementation such as order efects, hedging, and different ways of presenting probabilities and payment schemes to experimental subjects.
References
•Posted Content
A Theoretical and Experimental Appraisal of Five Risk Elicitation Methods
Paolo Crosetto,Antonio Filippin +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, a comparative analysis of five incentivized tasks used to elicit risk preferences is performed, comparing the elicitation methods in terms of completeness of the range of the estimates, their precision, the likelihood of triggering loss aversion, and problems arising when multiple choices are required.
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Belief Elicitation: A Horse Race Among Truth Serums
TL;DR: In this article, the authors pit non-incentivized introspection against five truth serums, to elicit beliefs in a simple two-player game, and test the internal validity (additivity and predictive power for own behavior), and the external validity (predictive power for other players' behavior, or accuracy) of each method.
Scoring rules for subjective probability distributions
TL;DR: For example, the authors show that for empirically plausible levels of risk aversion, one can reliably elicit most important features of the latent subjective belief distribution without undertaking calibration for risk attitudes providing one is willing to assume Subjective Expected Utility.
•Posted Content
Risk aversion elicitation: reconciling tractability and bias minimization
TL;DR: This article focuses on a tractable procedure initially proposed by Holt and Laury (2002) to elicit risk attitude and generalizes this method to measure utility and risk aversion, and uses the outcome scale rather than the probability scale in the menu of choices.
70
Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries
TL;DR: This article showed that the binary lottery procedure also induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule and showed that it can induce direct revelation of subjective probabilities in subjects with popular non-expected utility preference representations that satisfy weak conditions.