Bayesian model calibration using structural reliability methods: application to the hydrological abc model

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors apply Bayesian updating using structural reliability methods (BUS) to calibrate the simple hydrological abc model to observations of a hypothetical real world case.

Abstract: Bayesian updating using structural reliability methods (BUS) is applied to calibrate the simple hydrological abc model to observations of a hypothetical real world case. The assumed hypothetical real world is chosen such that the abc model cannot represent it perfectly. The likelihood function is expressed in terms of the measurement error and the modeling error. The probability distributions of both errors are only approximate, due to a lack of knowledge about the true behavior. The correlation structure of the modeling error is regarded as partially uncertain and inferred in the updating process. It is highlighted that under the presence of modeling errors, the predictive distribution of the model output is not the same as the predictive distribution of the true discharge.