An improved algorithm for outbreak detection in multiple surveillance systems.
Angela Noufaily,Doyo Gragn Enki,Paddy Farrington,Paul H. Garthwaite,Nick Andrews,Andre Charlett +5 more
TL;DR: It is found that the new system greatly reduces the number of alarms while maintaining good overall performance and in some instances increasing the sensitivity.
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Abstract: In England and Wales, a large-scale multiple statistical surveillance system for infectious disease outbreaks has been in operation for nearly two decades. This system uses a robust quasi-Poisson regression algorithm to identify abberrances in weekly counts of isolates reported to the Health Protection Agency. In this paper, we review the performance of the system with a view to reducing the number of false reports, while retaining good power to detect genuine outbreaks. We undertook extensive simulations to evaluate the existing system in a range of contrasting scenarios. We suggest several improvements relating to the treatment of trends, seasonality, re-weighting of baselines and error structure. We validate these results by running the existing and proposed new systems in parallel on real data. We find that the new system greatly reduces the number of alarms while maintaining good overall performance and in some instances increasing the sensitivity.
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Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic with the World Mortality Dataset.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors compared the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic between countries or across time by collecting weekly, monthly, or quarterly all-cause mortality data from 103 countries and territories, openly available as the regularly updated World Mortality Dataset.
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Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020: age and sex disaggregated time series analysis in 29 high income countries.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimate the direct and indirect effects of the covid-19 pandemic on mortality in 29 high income countries with reliable and complete age and sex disaggregated mortality data.
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Place and causes of acute cardiovascular mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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The World Mortality Dataset: Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic
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References
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TL;DR: Investigations identified sprouts as the most likely outbreak vehicle, underlining the need to take into account food items that may be overlooked during subjects' recall of consumption.
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A Statistical Algorithm for the Early Detection of Outbreaks of Infectious Disease
TL;DR: A robust system developed to process weekly reports of infections received at the Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre is described, using a simple regression algorithm to calculate suitable thresholds.
427
A review and discussion of prospective statistical surveillance in public health
Christian Sonesson,David Bock +1 more
TL;DR: A review of methods suggested in the literature for sequential detection of changes in public health surveillance data is presented, including methods that include only the time domain as well as methods for detection where observations have a spatial structure.
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Statistical methods for the prospective detection of infectious disease outbreaks: a review
TL;DR: There has been a surge in interest in statistical methods for the early detection of infectious disease outbreaks over the past decade as mentioned in this paper, and this growth in interest has given rise to much new methodological work, ranging across the spectrum of statistical methods.
Online Journal of Public Health Informatics
TL;DR: A framework for classifying XAI algorithms applied to clinical medicine is presented and communication modalities used to convey an XAI explanation can be used to classify algorithms and may affect clinical outcomes.
154