A commentary on studies presenting projections of the future prevalence of dementia.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a commentary on studies projecting the future prevalence of dementia for the world or for individual continents and identify some important limitations of the methods used in published projections and provide recommendations to improve the accuracy of future projections, and allow for the checking of the correctness of the predictions.
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Abstract: Population ageing over the first half of this century is likely to lead to dramatic increases in the prevalence of dementia. This will affect all regions of the world, but particularly developing regions. Dementia projections have been used extensively to support policy. It is therefore important these projections are as accurate as possible. In this paper we provide a commentary on studies projecting the future prevalence of dementia for the world or for individual continents. We identify some important limitations of the methods used in published projections and provide recommendations to improve the accuracy of future projections, and allow for the checking of the accuracy of the predictions. Accurate projections of dementia incidence, at both the global and local level, are essential for healthcare planners.
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References
Global prevalence of dementia: a Delphi consensus study
Cleusa P. Ferri,Martin Prince,Carol Brayne,Henry Brodaty,Laura Fratiglioni,Mary Ganguli,Kathleen S. Hall,Kazuo Hasegawa,Hugh C. Hendrie,Yueqin Huang,Anthony F. Jorm,Colin Mathers,Paulo Rossi Menezes,Elizabeth Rimmer,Marcia Scazufca +14 more
TL;DR: Detailed estimates of dementia prevalence for each world region are believed to constitute the best currently available basis for policymaking, planning, and allocation of health and welfare resources.
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