Abstract: Inspired by public choice theories — in particular the work of Bernholz, Downs, Olson and Tullock — two propositions are advanced. First, the older a democracy is, the slower its growth rates should become. Second, the higher the social security spending is, the slower economic growth rates should become. Pooled regression analysis and the growth experience of 19 OECD nations between 1960 and 1985 allow for an empirical test. Unfortunately, results very much depend on a technical issue, i.e., on the inclusion or exclusion of period and country dummy variables. It is argued that inclusion of the dummies is misleading. If you accept these arguments, then the propositions linking age of democracy or social security transfers on the one hand and lower economic growth rates on the other hand are confirmed.

Abstract: The aim of this study is to verify whether a given semantic differential scale is appropriate for measuring attitudes toward four health-related behaviors: smoking cigarettes; using oral contraceptives; breast self-examination; and using dental floss 193 undergraduate university women completed an attitudinal questionnaire concerning these behaviors and three months later the corresponding behaviors were self-reported Internal consistency values varied from 049 to 083 and the attitude-behavior correlations fluctuated between 012 and 064 The lowest alpha value was associated with the lowest attitude-behavior correlation The results are discussed in terms of the relevance and the semantic stability of the pair of adjectives used to assess the attitude construct

Abstract: An attempt is made to bridge the gap between the ‘theorists’ and ‘modellists’ approaches to the conceptualization of theoretical constructs. The former approach assumes that every theoretical construct has a ‘surplus meaning’ over and above its operationalization and measurement as a ‘concept’. The latter approach denies this: it only accepts ‘theoretical constructs’ as functions of relations between observations, i.e. measured concepts.

Abstract: The concepts of internal and external validity, developed by Norman Campbell, are widely used to structure methodological thinking about social research. This article points to ambiguities in the interpretation of those terms, both as regards the relationships they refer to as well as the sort of object that is held to be capable of internal and external validity. In addition, it is suggested that the distinction between these types of validity is fundamentally misleading because it reflects a failure to distinguish relations between events and relations between variables. It also rests on the false assumption that we can separate the discovery of causal relationships from the question of whether these apply to other cases than the ones studied. In the final section, an alternative conceptualisation of validity is sketched, one that avoids the problems identified.

Abstract: The present paper considers some new models for the analysis of multidimensional contigency tables. Although the theoretical background used here appeared already in Haberman (1974), prescribed conditional interaction (PCIN) models were introduced by Rudas (1987) and their mathematical properties were worked out by Leimer and Rudas (1988). These models are defined by prescribing the values of certain conditional interactions in the contingency table. Conditional interaction is defined here as the logarithm of an appropriately defined conditional odds ratio. This conditional odds ratio is a conditional version of a generalization of the well known odds ratio of a 2×2 table and that of the three factor interaction term of a 2×2×2 table and applies to any number of dimensions and any number of categories of the variables. The well known log-linear (LL) models are special PCIN models. Estimated frequencies under PCIN models and tests of fit can be computed using existing statistical software (e.g. BMDP). The paper describes the class of PCIN models and compares it to the class of association models of Goodman (1981). As LL models are widely used in the analysis of social mobility tables, application of more general PCIN models is illustrated.

Abstract: Forty years ago sociology possessed a plethora of broad theories, some untestable and others merely untested. Merton rightly argued that global theorizing could be premature if the middle-range groundwork were not properly accomplished. At the present time sociology possesses a plethora of middle-range theories, and is close to paralyzing fragmentation. This paper argues that the time has come for a return to classical concerns as a complement (not an alternative) to continuing middle-range theorizing. Three strategies for macrosociological theorizing are presented: the divisive, aggregative, and direct. The divisive strategy is largely nonexistent, and Merton argued strongly against the direct, leaving the aggregative as his method of choice. We argue here that the concept of middle-range theory is vague, and it is exceedingly difficult to distinguish middle-range from non-middle-range theories. Out of 27 cells in our table, only 14 are identifiable as middle-range, and 9 are indeterminable. We argue that the aggregative strategy is probably not feasible at this time, but that all three strategies should be used, with an emphasis on the direct.

Abstract: To avoid the response set phenomenon, in handbooks it is suggested to compose item batteries of both positively and negatively formulated items. However, while doing a factor analysis, researchers usually neglect the effect this may have on the fit of the factor solution.

Abstract: In the article are given examples showing how, by using musical notation in registering (complicated) developments, considerably more qualitative variables may be taken into account than we were used to; furthermore, the temporal element may be represented with a degree of precision that corresponds to our needs. In case of cross-sectional data modifications of musical notation may be used. However, we have to recognize that there are also variables, maybe important ones, that — for several reasons — cannot be registered with a very high precision. Other complications are hinted at. The method described is rather a working method by means of which to improve the basis for a further quantitative analysis than a method suitable for showing final research results.

Abstract: It has been argued that fundamentally different methodological approaches have made for ‘two sociologies’ This view has obscured the fact that the problem of validity has to be tackled independently of any specific methodological premises because of the textuality of sociological data This does not necessarily imply, however, a single, unified strategy for validity testing In this paper, some basic theoretical presuppositions underlying the approach to validity testing in quantitative research will be contrasted with the strategies offered by Max Weber's methodological writings on the ideal type It is argued that the use of ideal typical constructs in qualitative research (exemplified by patient's illness careers) allows systematic validity testing despite the important differences in the conceptualization of social reality which is used in quantitative research, thus serving the purpose of any empirical sociological research, that is, to gain valid insight into societies' concrete reality

Abstract: In this article an overview is presented of some 50 methodological studies on survey questioning, published from 1986 until 1987.

Abstract: In this paper, the Kreps-Wilson monopoly-entrant game will be reconstructed in order to make the underlying concepts and the strain of reasoning amenable to a general discussions It is shown that for the derived sequential equilibrium on incentive problem for the players exits, inasmuch as it contains mixed strategies and equilibrium payoffs are equal to maximin, and that the consequences of a variation of payoffs with respect to equilibrium behavior are counter-intuitive for a large range of parameters of the payoff matrix To conclude, the concept of cautiously rationalizable sequential equilibrium is suggested

Abstract: In recent years the question of how the size of government should be measured has been an unresolved issue in the research program on government growth. Employing the simple ratio of government spending to total economic output in their measures, most scholars have failed to recognize the different inflation rates which characterize the public and private sectors, as well as the fact that observed government growth may be attributable both to the effects of differential deflators and to increases in the scope of government activity. In this paper I present a simple geometric formulation for decomposing government growth into real growth and deflator-based components. Although the utility of this method is illustrated using data from two American states (New York and Florida), the technique has broad applicability for decomposing government growth into real and deflator components for a wide range of political systems for which data are available.

Abstract: Individual differences in psychophysical data are examined in an olfactory experiment using a group of sixteen children (9 year olds) and three different techniques: magnitude estimation (ME), reglets or sticks (RE) and finger span (FS). From the responses given in the three techniques Steven's functions were calculated. Group and individual fits to the power law are analyzed. Comparisons of all individual curves were also done and consistency of the subjects responses across techniques was examined. Results show that: (1) while group data fit to the power law, individual data, in general, do not; (2) individual differences are found in both slopes and intercepts and (3) subjects are consistent in their judgments across techniques. These results might be interpreted in a sensory and cognitive context. Further research is needed to identify the specific contribution of sensory and cognitive sources to the individual differences in the psychophysical function.

Abstract: The standard assumption underlying most of the negative results of the social choice theory is that the individuals have complete and transitive preference relations over the candidates. As an alternative to this assumption we consider the possibility that individuals can be characterized as possessing preference tournaments (i.e. asymmetric and complete relations) over the candidate set. We discuss the implications of the latter assumption to the negative results of social choice theory. Finally some solution concepts applicable in the individual preference tournament framework are outlined.

Abstract: A model is proposed for the simulation of human society as a system of highly interconnected units whose behavior is described by a system of coupled differential equations. The stable solutions of this system represent stable formations in society. The concepts of ‘social energy’ and ‘social temperature’ are introduced for the description of these stable formations as energy minima. Changes in society are explained as redistributions of the connections between the units. Some simple relationships between political parties are analyzed as examples. The model can be used at different levels, and it can provide help both for the analysis of past political events and for the development of future political strategies.

Abstract: The principal assumption of statistical theory is that a sample came from a homogeneous population. This assumption is not tested when statistical computations are produced. It creates a gap between statistical theory and statistical practice. This gap is bridged by the new quality philosophy (NQP) in statistics. The NQP defines a homogeneous population in terms of classical probability discrete distributions.

Abstract: In a letter to the author Arrow makes an important recognition regarding the question of irrelevant alternatives by expressing his view that alternatives which are not among the superior ones can, in fact, affect the choice of the best alternative (it is a question of choosing the best chess player).

Abstract: Considerations regarding the interrelationships among theory, research design, observational approaches, and data analysis techniques bear on the consistency and integration of our overall procedures in performing social research. It is here illustrated how an initial research conclusion, shown through further analysis to be false, might have been avoided entirely if a more stringent research design had been employed. In a medical treatment context a worrisome negative correlation between treatment and outcome is revealed as spurious, due to gender differences in reactions to a serious disease. If subjects had been randomly assigned to experimental and control groups, a zero correlation coefficient would have correctly indicated that the treatment had no effect upon the outcome.

Abstract: A linear regression procedure is usually used to estimate the effect of a set of predictors on utilization of ambulatory health care. The implicit assumptions embedded in the linear regression model have never been examined. Here, with utilization data of a sample of 48292 patients from the file of the Quebec National Health Plan, four implicit hypotheses embedded in the linear regression model are tested: (1) the transition from the state of utilization to the state of no utilization, and vice-versa, depends on the level of the transition rates, (2) the effect of independent variables depends on the transitions being predicted from or to the state of utilization, (3) the transition is time dependent, and (4) the system of transitions from one state to another is not at equilibrium. The analysis shows that the first three hypotheses cannot be rejected. Thus, the use of the familiar linear regression procedure in this study to estimate the effect of a set of factors on utilization would have yielded biased estimates.

Abstract: A common problem in data analysis occurs when one has many models to compare to a single or just a few data sets. For example, a researcher may conduct an experiment in which subjects respond by choosing one category from a small set of categories. The data set then consists of the frequencies with which the categories occur. Many substantive models may yield predictions of these frequencies, so that the researcher is faced with the problem of comparing the data to many a priori equally attractive theoretical predictions. This paper proposes a method for the simultaneous study of the predictions and data. The method improves on the standard approach to judging goodness-of-fit by treating the predictions as rows in a two (or higher) way contingency table. Log linear models for the probabilities that subjects respond in specific ways are used to determine how the predictions compare to the data and to rank the predictions in terms of their accuracy.

Abstract: Analysts of social mobility are coming round to the view that it is not enough to find a model that fits the data; it is at least as important to know which bits of the model fit the data, and which are unimportant. The need for this type ofstructuring becomes even more pressing when we seek to determine the dimensions along which societies differ. This paper carries the process of structuring a stage further by proposing an orthogonal decomposition of a mobility model in which each dimension (degree of freedom) can be given a distinct sociological interpretation.

Abstract: Borda's vote method was used by the French Academy from 1796 to 1803 when Napoleon got it abolished. In the laws and regulations of the Academy there are stipulations regarding the election of new members. The practice is demonstrated by some examples from the protocols. In fact, Borda presented two vote methods which he showed would give the same conclusion. The method which has not been in the limelight proves to be the same one as is used for selecting the best player in chess tournaments.

Abstract: In this study it will be argued that the perceived distribution of opinions among others is important for opinion research. Three different ways of measuring the perception of opinion distributions in survey research are compared: (a) by means of a questionwhat most people think about an issue, (b) by means of a questionhow many people are perceived to agree with an issue-statement, (c) by means of ‘line-production-boxes’, a special version ofmagnitude estimation. The results indicate that ‘line-production-boxes’ can improve data quality, but have also some drawbacks which will have to be dealt with. ‘Line-production-boxes’ give a wealth of information about individual differences in the forms of perceived opinion distributions. Although the normal distribution is used often, many other distribution forms are also used. The method of ‘line-production-boxes’ is compared with the method of estimating percentage points. Although high correlations suggest a good concurrent validity, some systematic differences do exist. New research directions are suggested.

Abstract: In this paper the α and β characteristic functions are reviewed and a new concept, the credible threat function, is introduced following some tentative remarks on the credibility of threats.

Abstract: A continuity axiom for bargaining solutions is introduced, which is satisfied by all Pareto optimal and continuous (in the Hausdorff metric) solutions. It is shown by two examples how this axiom can be used to characterize solutions having certain kind of monotonicity properties. One of the solutions is the lexicographic maximin solution. The other is the lexicographic extension of the Kalai-Smorodinsky solution. The former is an efficient (Pareto optimal) extension of the symmetric proportional solution. The latter is an efficient extension of the Kalai-Smorodinsky solution.

Abstract: Research in consumer behavior, or other surveys, where there is interest in the comparison of response measurement can produce data that is conveniently summarized in an m×m contingency table. In this case, interest may lie in the symmetry of the data in the table or in the homogeneity of the marginal distributions. The purpose of this paper is to examine some of these ideas and propose a test of symmetry which has advantages over the commonly used statistics.

Abstract: According to Komter, the consultations necessary to get permission to investigate a certain group can provide information as to the research subject and the prospects that the people to be examined believe to have in their circumstances. In this paper it will be made clear that these ‘preliminary investigations’ can provide more than these two kinds of information. On the basis of a case study it will be demonstrated that: (1) the reasons provided by the people involved for not being able to participate in the research as such, or in its proposed form, at least provide some information about the context in which the empirical research will have to take place; (2) this context may suggest in what way the results of the research will possibly be utilized by the people examined.

Abstract: Prior research efforts have attempted to identify the extent to which interviewers bias survey data. Interviewer characteristics such as age, sex, race and social class have been widely studied, as have the effects of certain interviewer attitudes. These previous works, however, have examined the effect of only one or two of these variables upon responses. The current research incorporates interviewer demographic variables, social distance measures, and interviewer attitudinal indicators into the analysis to ascertain their relative impact upon respondent attitudes. Findings include: (1) interviewer demographic characteristics and social distance measures have no significant effects upon responses; and (2) interviewer attitudes exert a statistically significant but small influence upon respondent attitudes.

Abstract: A method is proposed to obtain standardized regression coefficients for composite variables made up of dummy variables or polynomial terms The method to be described enables the researcher to compare the effect of the composite variable with the effects of other predictor variables Forming a composite variable is particularly useful in polynomial regression where individual regression coefficients are hard to interpret A second application is assessing the impact of a compound of dummy variables An empirical example dealing with the curvilinear relationship between church involvement and prejudice is used to illustrate the approach