Showing papers in "Parameters in 2024"
2 citations
TL;DR: The relationship between the military and society is complex and multifaceted, influenced by global events, cultural trends, and politics. The journal Armed Forces & Society plays a key role in reflecting this dynamic field.
Abstract: There is an ongoing dependence and tension between the military and the society it protects. This article examines the relatively new "military and society" field using the 50-year anniversary of the journal Armed Forces & Society as a focal point. This dynamic field is influenced by world events, cultural trends, and politics. Civil-military relations is at the heart of the discourse. An international and interdisciplinary journal, Armed Forces & Society reflects the changing nature of the field over the last 50 years. I have edited the journal since 2001 and bring this experience to the discussion.
2 citations
TL;DR: China employs police and internal security forces as a nontraditional means of projecting strategic landpower in Asia, enhancing its presence, partnerships, and influence through engagements in the Indo-Pacific and Central Asia.
Abstract: This article argues that the People's Republic of China uses its police and internal security forces as a nontraditional means of projecting strategic Landpower in the Indo-Pacific and Central Asia. Instead of limiting analysis of China's power projection to military forces, this article employs new data on Chinese police engagements abroad to fill a gap in our understanding of the operating environment in Asia. Policymakers will gain an understanding of how these activities enhance China's presence, partnerships, and influence across the region to inform the development of recommendations for a more effective response.
1 citations
TL;DR: The BRI lacks coherence and Beijing's capacity to extract geopolitical benefits will remain limited due to its fragmented nature and the agency of participant countries.
Abstract: American accounts of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) contend that it is a coherent grand strategy that reflects Beijing's geopolitical ambitions. These accounts ignore the BRI's fragmented nature, whereby Chinese provinces have been pivotal actors in its development and implementation. Furthermore, these accounts disregard the agency of participant countries and their capacity to shape the BRI. This article illustrates this fragmentation and agency by studying the Yunnan province and its domestic and international neighbors. It contends that these dynamics indicate that the BRI lacks coherence and that Beijing's capacity to extract geopolitical benefits will remain limited.
1 citations
TL;DR: This article examines the Israel-Hamas conflict through the lens of international law, specifically Article 51 of the UN Charter, to determine if Israel's use of military force in self-defense against Hamas is legally justified.
Abstract: This article examines the international law of self-defense as it applies to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict to determine whether the October 2023 attacks by Hamas against Israel can be interpreted under Article 51 of the UN Charter as an "armed attack" that gives Israel the right to use military force in self-defense against non-state actors. It situates the conflict within ongoing legal and political debates, shows how this conflict fits into a changing global reality where the most dangerous security threats do not exclusively emanate from other states and concludes that Israel's resort to force in the current conflict appears to have a sound basis in international law.
1 citations
TL;DR: This article redefines strategy as problem-solving, challenging traditional approaches by emphasizing diagnosis of complex problems, and provides a new logic for strategy, along with practical tools and pedagogies for military strategists to address 21st-century challenges.
Abstract: This article proposes a new definition of strategy as problem-solving that challenges the focus on goals and assumptions of order within many post–Cold War approaches to strategy. It argues that the military needs strategy to diagnose the complex problems of the twenty-first century before they can be solved. Inspired by practitioners such as Andrew Marshall and George F. Kennan, this new definition clarifies what strategists do and offers a logic for distinguishing the use of the term strategy. Practitioners will also find problem-solving tools and pedagogies they can adopt today.
1 citations
TL;DR: The US strengthening ties with Taiwan is crucial to preserve the liberal international order in Asia, improve security relative to China, and reduce conflict risk, with Taiwan contributing to US-led institutions and regional order through integration into multilateral Asian institutions.
Abstract: Strengthening ties with Taiwan is the best chance the United States has to preserve the liberal international order in Asia and improve its security relative to China. This study offers a normative perspective on how Taiwan can contribute to US-led international institutions and the Asian regional order and reduce conflict risk. It concludes with recommendations for the United States and its partners to integrate Taiwan into multilateral institutions in Asia.
TL;DR: Russia will dominate information warfare if the US fails to address disinformation as central to its strategy. The US defense leaders are aware of Russian disinformation but have failed to assess its impact or sufficiently negate Russian influence. To counter Russia's disinformation strategy, the US needs to take proactive measures.
Abstract: Russia will dominate information warfare if the United States does not treat disinformation as central to Russian strategy. This article examines the vital role disinformation played in post–Cold War Russian strategy, including its strategy in the current Russia-Ukraine War, and in a departure from previous scholarship, this article observes that US defense leaders are aware of Russian disinformation but have failed to assess its impact or sufficiently negate Russian influence. The article also reviews current US efforts and suggests proactive ways to counter Russia's disinformation strategy.
TL;DR: The Autumn 2024 issue of Parameters features a special commentary from the US Army War College Commandant and Provost, along with various forums and commentaries on strategic vision, partnerships, development, and historical studies in the military context.
Abstract: Welcome to the Autumn 2024 issue of Parameters. The Autumn issue consists of a special piece from the US Army War College Commandant and Provost on their strategic vision for the college, three In Focus special commentaries, three forums (Cooperative Partnerships, Professional Development, and Historical Studies), two regular forums (A Major's Perspective and the Civil-Military Relations Corner), and a review essay focused on strategy in India.
TL;DR: AI-powered warning system for insurgent attacks in Afghanistan implemented in 2019-2020.
Abstract: This article examines Raven Sentry, a project that employed artificial intelligence to provide advance warning of insurgent attacks in Afghanistan. During 2019 and 2020, the Resolute Support Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence (J2) benefited from a command culture open to innovation, the urgency created by the US drawdown, and a uniquely talented group of personnel that, aided by commercial sector experts, built an AI system that helped predict attacks. The war's end cut Raven Sentry short, but the experience provides important lessons on AI and the conditions necessary for successful innovation.
TL;DR: This article analyzes US-Africa relations through a geopolitical lens, examining strategies of China, France, Russia, and the US, and provides actionable policy recommendations for fostering stable US-Africa relations amidst the global power competition between democracy and authoritarianism.
Abstract: As a key battleground in the global struggle between democracy and authoritarianism, Africa offers US policymakers insights to navigate competing interests and power dynamics. For a comprehensive view of this competition, this article analyzes Chinese, French, Russian, and American geopolitical strategies; employs a geopolitical analysis of current events, diplomatic maneuvers, and historical lessons; and uses policy documents, expert opinions, and case studies of geopolitical engagements. It then provides actionable policy recommendations for fostering stable, long-term US relations in Africa and offers strategic perspectives on managing the global power competition applicable to broader national security and diplomatic contexts.
TL;DR: This article critiques the concept of "unambiguous warning" in intelligence, arguing it's a false dichotomy that provides policymakers with a false sense of security, and examines its inadequacy through case studies of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the Pearl Harbor attack.
Abstract: The Indications and Warnings subfield of intelligence has traditionally divided warnings into a dichotomy of "ambiguous" and "unambiguous" that gives policymakers a false sense of security. This article examines how unambiguous warning has been conceptualized and why it has become an inadequate planning tool that can lead to dire consequences in the quest for certainty. Using the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the Pearl Harbor attack as case studies, the article shows unambiguous warning is an inadequate planning tool that can lead to dire consequences in the quest for certainty. The article concludes with observations about the role of intelligence and the future of military planning.
TL;DR: This article reappraises Eisenhower's performance as Supreme Allied Commander, highlighting strategic errors and missteps that led to severe casualties and prolonged the war in Europe, offering lessons for US military practitioners and policymakers on successful theater command.
Abstract: This article argues that the historical assessment of Dwight D. Eisenhower as Supreme Allied Commander of the Allied Expeditionary Force in World War II lacks objectivity and balance. It identifies several strategic errors and missteps attributable to Eisenhower, which resulted in severe casualties and prolonged the war in Europe. The conclusions can help US military practitioners and policymakers assess the background and qualities required for successful theater command during wartime and senior commanders' performances.
TL;DR: The US and its allies must provide sufficient aid to Ukraine soon to deny Russia an objective victory, as a failure in Ukraine will weaken global relationships and embolden state and non-state actors to challenge the rules-based international order.
Abstract: If the United States and its allies seek to deny Vladimir Putin an objective victory in the Russia-Ukraine War, they must commit to providing sufficient aid to the Ukrainian army soon because the window of opportunity to provide sufficient resources is narrow—and closing. This article argues that the West must articulate a reasonable strategy for Ukrainian victory now, as a failure in Ukraine will weaken relationships between the United States and Western European states and their global partners while emboldening state and non-state actors to threaten the rules-based international order.
TL;DR: NATO's COE Defence Against Terrorism report previews emerging technologies in terrorism, highlighting key inhibitors to counterterrorism, potential threat scenarios, and recommendations for policy and defense communities to address the challenges posed by emerging technologies.
Abstract: The Strategic Studies Institute and the NATO Centre of Excellence for the Defense Against Terrorism have solicited expert researchers' knowledge on emerging threats and technologies to prepare a (forthcoming) report on emerging technologies in terrorism. The information presented here previews this report, including an overview of key factors inhibiting counterterrorism, examples of potential threat scenarios, and recommendations of ways in which the policy and defense communities can keep apace with the challenges that emerging technologies present.
TL;DR: The CLSC Director's Corner discusses the center's research agenda, outlining how it addresses large campaign questions from the perspectives of the PRC, US, and US allies, building on the center's mission and previous research.
Abstract: In this second installment of the CLSC Director’s Corner, Joshua Arostegui, the center’s research director and chair of China studies, and the center's director, Richard Butler, discuss the center’s research agenda. Previously, Butler outlined the center’s mission and how the research agenda answers large campaign questions across the perspectives of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the United States, and US allies and partners.
TL;DR: The forum covers various topics including the Belt and Road Initiative, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the Middle East, and professional development. It includes articles on the BRI, mental readiness in Ukrainian soldiers, disinformation, retrenchment, and officer education.
Abstract: Misunderstand about the Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI), by Zenel Garcia and Phillip Guerreiro; they argue the grand-strategic and geopolitical framing American policymakers typically use to interpret the BRI ignores the origin of the program and its fragmented nature.Our first forum, Russia-Ukraine War, includes two articles.The first of these, "The Combat Path: Sustaining Mental Readiness in Ukrainian Soldiers," by Oleh Hukovskyy et al. reviews the Combat Path Debriefing technique developed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to support psychological resilience, unit readiness, and combat performance.The second article, "Understanding Russian Disinformation and How the Joint Force Can Address It," by Michael Kelley suggests several proactive measures US defense leaders can take to counter Russia's disinformation strategy.Kelley warns Russia will continue to dominate information warfare if the United States fails to take steps to negate its influence.The second forum, Middle East, features three articles.In the first, "The Dynamics of US Retrenchment in the Middle East," Paul MacDonald and Joseph Parent examine existing retrenchment theories to determine if the current geopolitical environment in the Middle East supports that approach.In their view, conditions favor American retrenchment because forward military deployments do not positively influence potential threats in the region.The second article, "Iraq's Ministry of Interior: NATO, Capability Building, and Reform," by Andrea Malouf, outlines 10 NATO and Allied failures that stymied efforts to reform Iraq's police and the Ministry of Interior.The forum closes with "Raven Sentry: Employing AI for Indications and Warnings in Afghanistan" by Thomas Spahr, who shows how a talented group of military personnel collaborated with commercialsector experts to develop an AI model called Raven Sentry to predict attacks on Afghan district and provincial centers.TOC 4 Parameters 54(2) Summer 2024The third forum, Professional Development, contains two articles.In the first, "Closing the Gap: Officer Advanced Education STEM+M (Management)," Leon Robert and Carl Wojtaszek claim the Army has made little progress in providing the current officer corps with a science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and management (STEM+M) education.They offer recommendations for closing the STEM+M gap through advances in higher education and the adoption of talent management practices.The second article, "Operating Successfully within the Bureaucracy Domain of Warfare: Part One," by Jeff McManus, discusses the first three of 10 fundamentals (politics, personalities, and pressure) that policy professionals should consider when navigating the bureaucratic domain of warfare and maintaining trusted access to senior decisionmakers.
TL;DR: This article bridges the gap between abstract policy discussions and tactical actions by developing a strategic art for sanctions, drawing on Joint Planning and Joint Campaigns and Operations to inform methodologies for projecting political-economic power in future engagements and campaigns.
Abstract: New strategic art is required to maneuver political economies to meet the demands of future engagements and campaigns. Current discussions of the projection of political-economic power are typically abstract, high-level, and policy-focused or present singular tactical actions as strategic actions, creating a gap for campaign practitioners. This article addresses the gap by drawing on Joint Planning, Joint Publication 5-0, and Joint Campaigns and Operations, Joint Publication 3-0, to further develop the concept and methodologies first introduced in the author's earlier article "Multidimensionality: Rethinking Power Projection for the 21st Century."
TL;DR: The Philippines' vulnerability to China's rising threats is understated by the US, despite its strategic importance in maintaining regional balance. The article examines the country's military capabilities and provides recommendations for US assistance within existing commitments.
Abstract: This article contends that the United States has insufficiently acknowledged the extent of the Philippines' vulnerability and its importance in preserving the balance of power. While many scholars have focused on Taiwan's strategic importance, few have considered the state of the Philippines' military capabilities in maintaining the region's status quo. This article traces the modern history of the Philippines' military and defense capabilities and examines the current state of the country's defenses and the likely outcomes of different military scenarios. It concludes by providing practical recommendations on how the United States can help the Philippines within the constraints of its existing commitments.
TL;DR: The Spring 2024 issue of Parameters has been formatted with endnotes instead of footnotes and includes a new feature to click on endnote numbers to view the full endnote.
Abstract: Welcome to the Spring 2024 issue of Parameters. Readers will note a few differences in the formatting for this issue: we are now using endnotes instead of footnotes to facilitate switching from pdf to html via Adobe's Liquid App; also, readers will be able to click on each endnote number to view the full endnote and then switch back to the text to resume reading. Please drop us a note to let us know how you like the changes. More are coming!
TL;DR: This issue of Parameters features an In Focus commentary, three forums on Indo-Pacific, Security Cooperation, and Historical Studies, and a Civil-Military Relations Corner installment, providing diverse perspectives on global security and military relations.
Abstract: Welcome to the Winter 2024–25 issue of Parameters. This issue consists of an In Focus special commentary, three forums (Indo-Pacific, Security Cooperation, and Historical Studies), and the regular Civil-Military Relations Corner installment.
TL;DR: Israel faces a precarious situation, requiring it to either escalate or maintain the status quo, and must develop capable threats to deter Hamas and dissuade Hezbollah and Tehran from supporting it, while avoiding escalation with violent extremist organizations.
Abstract: Israel finds itself in a trap: escalate or maintain the status quo; absent a political solution, it must develop capable threats that deter future Hamas attacks and dissuade Hezbollah and Tehran from providing the support Hamas requires to carry them out. This special commentary executes an analysis of Israel's precarious position and, in doing so, confronts the larger question of how to avoid escalation when engaging with violent extremist organizations with clear but unverifiable state support. The analysis provides a clear picture of the problem and offers tentative, evidence-based solutions for evading escalation or an untenable status quo.
TL;DR: The US Army War College undergoes its fifth evolution, adapting education to meet future operational force needs, delivering assessment-based education, leader development, research, and war gaming to inform strategic leaders on critical national security choices and global Landpower applications.
Abstract: The US Army War College recognizes the requirements for continued adaptation during periods of systemic and technological change. Currently on the forward edge of its fifth evolution, the college is adapting to provide assessment-based, tailorable education to its students and deliver impactful leader-development programs, research, and war gaming to inform strategic leaders about critical national security choices. Adapting strategic education to keep pace with the needs of the future operational force is essential to maintain the war-fighting edge for the Army of 2040 and beyond. This fifth evolution of the Army War College reinvigorates education requirements in the global application of Landpower. In a testament to the quality of adaptive curricular processes and design, the college is envisioning new means and methods to answer the call that Secretary of War Root issued more than a century ago, "[n]ot to promote war but to preserve peace through intelligent and adequate preparation to repel aggression."
TL;DR: The US and its allies must provide sufficient aid to Ukraine soon to deny Putin a victory in the Russia-Ukraine War, as a failure will weaken Western relationships and embolden global threats to the rules-based international order.
Abstract: A BSTR ACT: If the United States and its allies seek to deny Vladimir Putin an objective victory in the Russia-Ukraine War, they must commit to providing suff icient aid to the Uk rainian army soon because the window of opportunity to provide suff icient resources is narrow-and closing.This article argues that the West must articulate a reasonable strategy for Ukrainian victory now, as a fa i lu re in U k ra ine w i l l wea ken relat ionsh ips bet ween the United States and Western European states and their global partners while emboldening state and non-state actors to threaten the rules-based international order.
TL;DR: The Autumn 2024 issue of Parameters features a special commentary from the US Army War College Commandant and Provost, along with various forums and commentaries on strategic vision, partnerships, development, and historical studies in the military context.
Abstract: Welcome to the Autumn 2024 issue of Parameters. The Autumn issue consists of a special piece from the US Army War College Commandant and Provost on their strategic vision for the college, three In Focus special commentaries, three forums (Cooperative Partnerships, Professional Development, and Historical Studies), two regular forums (A Major's Perspective and the Civil-Military Relations Corner), and a review essay focused on strategy in India.
TL;DR: This review essay explores Indian strategy, focusing on domestic issues and Pakistan-India relations, highlighting the oversized role of the Pakistani military in India's national politics and its impact on security and foreign policy decisions.
Abstract: This review essay discusses Rajesh Basrur's Subcontinental Drift: Domestic Politics and India's Foreign Policy and Feroz Hassan Khan's Subcontinent Adrift: Strategic Futures of South Asia and explores Indian strategy, especially concerning domestic issues and the relationship between Pakistan and India. The review concludes by noting that the two books agree on the oversized role of the Pakistani military in India's national politics, where most security and foreign policy decisions are directed toward Pakistan.
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TL;DR: This book provides a well-researched analysis of the Russia-Ukraine War, detailing military decisions, operational blunders, and strategic setbacks, with a central argument that Russia's invasion was driven by fear of regime change, not NATO encirclement.
Abstract: deserves praise for tackling the complex and fast-moving target of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War in his well-researched tour de force, Putin' s War on Ukraine.His book details tactical and operational military decisions, even though Ramani is a professor of politics and international relations, not a military historian.He relies heavily on primary and secondary sources from local press, social media apps like Telegram, Russia's pro-Kremlin punditry, and his extensive interviews with experts.I appreciated his attempt to capture the confusion in Moscow ahead of the February 2022 Ukraine invasion and his blow-by-blow account of the war's opening phase, revealing the ugliness of the war effort and why it faltered.For wonks who follow the war closely, the book might feel like familiar terrain, but its insightful analysis and colorful quotes make it a must-read for diplomats and defense experts.The book's central argument describes why Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.Spoiler alert: it was not fear of NATO encirclement but of regime change and popular revolution from within.What motivated the Kremlin is what Ramani calls "counter-revolution." Anything with a whiff of revolutionary fervor is anathema to Vladimir Putin's brand of authoritarianism.Ramani then gives readers a front-row seat to the war.Military historians should skip to chapter 4, which provides an intriguing overview of the botched battle of Kyiv and should be required reading at war colleges.The book decently details the Russian military's operational blunders and strategic setbacks throughout 2022.Ramani points to the Russian armed forces' "hierarchical rigidity," a legacy of its Soviet predecessor (129).Followers of Ukraine will appreciate how the author recalls incidents that may be buried in readers' memories.For example, I had largely forgotten about the fusillade of cyberattacks Russia carried out against Ukraine in the years before 2022.