Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of product substitutability on Nash equilibrium distribution structures in a duopoly where each manufacturer distributes its goods through a single exclusive retailer, which may be either a franchised outlet or a factory store. Static linear demand and cost functions are assumed, and a number of rules about players' expectations of competitors' behavior are examined. It is found that for most specifications product substitutability does influence the equilibrium distribution structure. For low degrees of substitutability, each manufacturer will distribute its product through a company store; for more highly competitive goods, manufacturers will be more likely to use a decentralized distribution system. This article was originally published in Marketing Science, Volume 2, Issue 2, pages 161--191, in 1983.

Abstract: This paper considers the pricing decision faced by a producer of a commodity with a short shelf or demand life. A hierarchical model is developed, and the results of the single period inventory model are used to examine possible pricing and return policies. The paper shows that several such policies currently in effect are suboptimal. These include those where the manufacturer offers retailers full credit for all unsold goods or where no returns of unsold goods are permitted. The paper also demonstrates that a policy whereby a manufacturer offers retailers full credit for a partial return of goods may achieve channel coordination, but that the optimal return allowance will be a function of retailer demand. Therefore, such a policy cannot be optimal in a multi-retailer environment. It is proven, however, that a pricing and return policy in which a manufacturer offers retailers a partial credit for all unsold goods can achieve channel coordination in a multi-retailer environment. This article was originally published in Marketing Science, Volume 4, Issue 2, pages 166--176, in 1985.

Abstract: A channel of distribution consists of different channel members each having his own decision variables. However, each channel member's decisions do affect the other channel members' profits and, as a consequence, actions. A lack of coordination of these decisions can lead to undesirable consequences. For example, in the simple manufacturer-retailer-consumer channel, uncoordinated and independent channel members' decisions over margins result in a higher price paid by the consumer than if those decisions were coordinated. In addition, the ensuing suboptimal volume leads to lower profits for both the manufacturer and the retailer. This paper explores the problems inherent in channel coordination. We address the following questions. ---What is the effect of channel coordination? ---What causes a lack of coordination in the channel? ---How difficult is it to achieve channel coordination? ---What mechanisms exist which can achieve channel coordination? ---What are the strengths and weaknesses of these mechanism? ---What is the role of nonprice variables (e.g., manufacturer advertising, retailer shelf-space) in coordination? ---Does the lack of coordination affect normative implications from in-store experimentation? ---Can quantity discounts be a coordination mechanism? ---Are some marketing practices actually disguised quantity discounts? We review the literature and present a simple formulation illustrating the roots of the coordination problem. We then derive the form of the quantity discount schedule that results in optimum channel profits. This article was originally published in Marketing Science, Volume 2, Issue 3, pages 239--272, in 1983.

Abstract: This descriptive study explores the reasons for integration of the personal selling function, i.e., the use of employee (“direct”) salespeople rather than manufacturers' representatives (“reps”). A hypothesized model is developed based on both transaction cost analysis and the sales force management literature. Data from 13 electronic component manufacturers covering 159 U.S. sales districts are used to estimate a logistic model of the probability of “going direct” in a given district. Results are shown to be stable across specification and estimation methods and to fit the data well. The transaction cost model is generally supported. The principal finding is that the greater the difficulty of evaluating a salesperson's performance, the more likely the firm to substitute surveillance for commission as a control mechanism, i.e., to use a direct sales force. Among other findings, direct sales forces are also associated with complex, hard-to-learn product lines and with districts that demand considerable nonselling activities. Several factors prove unrelated, including company size, the amount of travel a district requires, and the importance of key accounts. This article was originally published in Marketing Science, Volume 4, Issue 3, Pages 234--254, in 1985.

Abstract: This paper describes a new data set available to academic researchers at the following website: http://mktsci.pubs.informs.org . These data are comprised of store sales and consumer panel data for 30 product categories. The store sales data contain 5 years of product sales, pricing, and promotion data for all items sold in 47 U.S. markets. In two U.S. markets, the store level data are supplemented with panel-level purchase data and cover the entire population of stores. Further information is available regarding store characteristics in these markets. We address several potential applications of these data, as well as the access protocol. The data set described in this paper is maintained by IRI. Any fees charged by IRI for the distribution of the data set will be used for the continual maintenance and updating of the data. Scholarships to cover IRI's fees for those who need it are available through the INFORMS Society for Marketing Science ISMS. Please see the website above for further details.

Abstract: This paper analyzes how a firm should adjust its marketing expenditures and its price to defend its position in an existing market from attack by a competitive new product. Our focus is to provide usable managerial recommendations on the strategy of response. In particular we show that if products can be represented by their position in a multiattribute space, consumers are heterogeneous and maximize utility, and awareness advertising and distribution can be summarized by response functions, then for the profit maximizing firm: it is optimal to decrease awareness advertising, it is optimal to decrease the distribution budget unless the new product can be kept out of the market, a price increase may be optimal, and even under the optimal strategy, profits decrease as a result of the competitive new product. Furthermore, if the consumer tastes are uniformly distributed across the spectrum a price decrease increases defensive profits, it is optimal (at the margin) to improve product quality in the direction of the defending product's strength and it is optimal (at the margin) to reposition by advertising in the same direction. In addition we provide practical procedures to estimate (1) the distribution of consumer tastes and (2) the position of the new product in perceptual space from sales data and knowledge of the percent of consumers who are aware of the new product and find it available. Competitive diagnostics, such as the angle of attack, are introduced to help the defending manager. This article was originally published in Marketing Science, Volume 2, Issue 4, pages 319--360, in 1983.

Abstract: The two main influences leading to adoption at the individual consumer level are marketing communication and interpersonal communication. Although evidence of the effect of these two influences is abundant at the market level, there is a paucity of research documenting the simultaneous effect of both influences at the individual consumer level. Thus, the primary objective of this paper is to fill the gap in the literature by documenting the existence and magnitude of both influences at the individual customer level while controlling for unobserved temporal effects. The pharmaceutical industry provides an appropriate context to study this problem. It has been conjectured that adoption and usage patterns of a new drug by physicians—“contagion”—acts as a “consumption externality,” as it allows a given physician to learn about the efficacy and use of the drug. In addition, pharmaceutical companies target individual physicians via marketing activities such as detailing, sampling, and direct-to-consumer adverti...

Abstract: In this paper, we develop a structural model of household behavior in an environment where there is uncertainty about brand attributes and both prices and advertising signal brand quality. Four quality signaling mechanisms are at work: 1 price signals quality, 2 advertising frequency signals quality, 3 advertising content provides direct but noisy information about quality, and 4 use experience provides direct but noisy information about quality. We estimate our proposed model using scanner panel data on ketchup. If price is important as a signal of brand quality, then frequent price promotion may have the unintended consequence of reducing brand equity. We use our estimated model to measure the importance of such effects. Our results imply that price is an important quality-signaling mechanism and that frequent price cuts can have significant adverse effects on brand equity. The role of advertising frequency in signaling quality is also significant, but it is less quantitatively important than price. In the printed version of Marketing Science, Vol. 27, No. 6, Erdem et al. 2008 was mistakenly identified as a Research Note. It is a regular article and has been corrected here and in the online table of contents.

Abstract: While retailers have sales data to forecast demand, manufacturers have a broad understanding of the market and the coming trends. It is well known that pooling such demand information within a distribution channel improves supply chain logistics. However, little is known about how information-sharing affects wholesale pricing incentives. In this paper, we investigate a channel structure where a manufacturer and two retailers have private signals of the state of the demand. Our model identifies the presence of a pricing distortion, which we term the inference effect, when a manufacturer sets price to an uninformed retailer. Because of this inference effect, the manufacturer would like to set a low wholesale price to signal to the retailer that the demand is low. On the other hand, the manufacturer would like to set a high wholesale price so that he earns the optimal margin on each unit sold. Vertical information sharing benefits the manufacturer by eliminating the distortion caused by the inference effect, which is more profound in a channel whose retailer has a noisier signal. This result implies that when there is a cost associated with transmitting information, the manufacturer may choose to share information with only the less-informed retailer rather than with both.

Abstract: This paper studies a model in which consumers search among multiple competing firms for products that match their preferences at a reasonable price. We focus on how easier search, possibly due to the adoption of search-facilitating technologies such as the Internet, influences equilibrium prices, assortments, firm profits, and consumer welfare. Conventional wisdom suggests that easier search creates a competition-intensifying effect that puts pressure on firms to lower their prices and reduce assortments. However, in our model we demonstrate that search also exhibits a market-expansion effect that encourages firms to expand their assortment---easier search means that each firm is searched by more consumers. Because of broader assortments, consumers are more likely to find products that better match their ideal preferences, improving the efficiency of the market. In fact, we demonstrate that the market-expansion effect can even dominate the competition-intensifying effect potentially leading to higher prices, broader assortments, more profits, and expanded welfare.

Abstract: For marketers, television remains the most important advertising medium. This paper proposes a two-sided model of the television industry. We estimate viewer demand for programs on one side and advertiser demand for audiences on the other. The primary objective is to understand how each group's program usage influences the other group. Four main conclusions emerge. First, viewers tend to be averse to advertising. When a highly rated network decreases its advertising time by 10%, our model predicts a median audience gain of about 25% (assuming no competitive reactions). Second, we find the price elasticity of advertising demand is -2.9, substantially more price elastic than 30 years ago. Third, we compare our estimates of advertiser and viewer preferences for program characteristics to networks' observed program choices. Our results suggest that advertiser preferences influence network choices more strongly than viewer preferences. Viewers' two most preferred program genres, Action and News, account for just 16% of network program hours. Advertisers' two most preferred genres, Reality and Comedy, account for 47% of network program hours. Fourth, we perform a counterfactual experiment in which some viewers gain access to a hypothetical advertisement avoidance technology. The results suggest that ad avoidance tends to increase equilibrium advertising quantities and decrease network revenues.

Abstract: Reference groups influence product and brand evaluations, especially when the product is a publicly consumed luxury good. Marketers of such luxury goods need to carefully balance two important social forces: 1 the desire of leaders to distinguish themselves from followers and 2 the countervailing desire of followers to assimilate with leaders. In this paper, we examine the theoretical implications of these social forces for firm prices, product design, and target consumer selection. We show that the presence of reference group effects can motivate firms to add costly features, which provide limited or no functional benefit to consumers. Furthermore, reference group effects can induce product proliferation on one hand and motivate firms to offer limited editions on the other hand. We find that offering a limited edition can increase sales and profits. In some cases, reference group effects can even lead to a buying frenzy.

Abstract: Brand salience---the extent to which a brand visually stands out from its competitors---is vital in competing on the shelf, yet is not easy to achieve in practice. This study proposes a methodology to determine the competitive salience of brands, based on a model of visual search and eye-movement recordings collected during a brand search experiment. We estimate brand salience at the point of purchase, based on perceptual features color, luminance, edges and how these are influenced by consumers' search goals. We show that the salience of brands has a pervasive effect on search performance, and is determined by two key components: The bottom-up component is due to in-store activity and package design. The top-down component is due to out-of-store marketing activities such as advertising. We show that about one-third of salience on the shelf is due to out-of-store and two-thirds due to in-store marketing. The proposed methodology for competitive salience analysis exposes the optimal visual differentiation level of a brand versus its competitors, and of each SKU versus the other SKUs of the same brand. The model of the visual search process and methodology for competitive salience analysis enable diagnostic analyses of the current levels of visual differentiation of brands and SKUs at the point of purchase, and provide directions for increasing these.

Abstract: With advances in technology, the collection of information from consumers at the time of purchase is common in many categories. This information allows a firm to straightforwardly classify consumers as either “new” or “past” consumers. This opens the door for firms to implement marketing that a discriminates between new and past consumers and b entails making offers to them that are significantly different. Our objective is to examine the competitive effects of marketing that tailors offers to consumers based on their past buying behavior. In a two-period model with two competing firms, we assume that each firm is able to commit about whether or not to implement behavior-based discrimination BBD, i.e., to add benefits to its offer for past consumers in the second period. When the firms are identical in their ability to add value to the second-period offer, BBD generally leads to lower profits for both firms. Past customers are so valuable in the second period that BBD leads to cutthroat competition in the first period. As a result, the payoffs associated with the implementation of BBD form a prisoner's dilemma. Interestingly, when a firm has a significant advantage over its competitor one firm has the capability to add more benefits for its past customers than the other, it can increase its profit versus the base case even when there is significant competition in the second period. Moreover, the firm at a disadvantage sometimes finds that the best response to BBD by a strong competitor is to respond with a uniform price and avoid the practice completely.

Abstract: We analyze a large-scale field test conducted with a mail-order catalog firm to investigate how customers react to premium prices for larger sizes of women's apparel. We find that customers who demand large sizes react unfavorably to paying a higher price than customers for small sizes. Further investigation suggests that these consumers perceive that the price premium is unfair. Overall, premium pricing led to a 6% to 8% decrease in gross profits.

Abstract: The authors study the takeoff of 16 new products across 31 countries 430 categories to analyze how and why takeoff varies across products and countries. They test the effect of 12 hypothesized drivers of takeoff using a parametric hazard model. The authors find that the average time to takeoff varies substantially between developed and developing countries, between work and fun products, across cultural clusters, and over calendar time. Products take off fastest in Japan and Norway, followed by other Nordic countries, the United States, and some countries of Midwestern Europe. Takeoff is driven by culture and wealth plus product class, product vintage, and prior takeoff. Most importantly, time to takeoff is shortening over time and takeoff is converging across countries. The authors discuss the implications of these findings.

Abstract: Prior behavioral research has suggested that advertising can influence a consumer's quality evaluation through informative and transformative effects. The informative effect acts directly to inform a consumer of product attributes and hence shapes her evaluations of brand quality. The transformative effect affects the consumer's evaluation of brand quality by enhancing her assessment of her subsequent consumption experience. In addition, advertising may influence a consumer's utility directly, even without providing any explicit information---this is the persuasive effect. In this paper, we propose a framework that formally models the processes through which all three effects of advertisements impact consumers' brand evaluations and their subsequent brand choice decisions. In particular, we model source credibility, confirmatory bias, and bounded rationality on the part of consumers, by appropriately modifying the standard Bayesian learning approach. Our model conforms closely to prior behavioral literature and the experimental findings therein. In our empirical analysis, we get significant estimates of both informative and transformative effects across brands. We find interesting temporal patterns across the effects; for instance, the importance of transformative effects seem to grow over time, while that of informative effects diminishes. Finally, we conduct policy experiments to examine the impact of increased ad intensity on advertising effects, as well as the role played by consumption ambiguity.

Abstract: This paper defines a unique type of product or service offering, termed probabilistic goods, and analyzes a novel selling strategy, termed probabilistic selling (PS). A probabilistic good is not a concrete product or service but an offer involving a probability of getting any one of a set of multiple distinct items. Under the probabilistic selling strategy, a multi-item seller creates probabilistic goods using the existing distinct products or services and offers such probabilistic goods as additional purchase choices. The probabilistic selling strategy allows sellers to benefit from introducing a new type of buyer uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty in product assignments. First, introducing such uncertainty enables sellers to create a “virtual” product or service (i.e., probabilistic good), which opens up a creative way to segment a market. We find that the probabilistic selling strategy is a general marketing tool that has the potential to benefit sellers in many different industries. Second, this paper shows that creating buyer uncertainty in product assignments is a new way for sellers to deal with their own market uncertainty. We illustrate two such benefits: (a) offering probabilistic goods can reduce the seller's information disadvantage and lessen the negative effect of demand uncertainty on profit, and (b) offering probabilistic goods can solve the mismatch between capacity and demand and enhance efficiency. Emerging technology is creating exciting (previously unfeasible) opportunities to implement PS and to obtain these many advantages.

Abstract: Existing evidence suggests that preferences are affected by whether a price is presented as one all-inclusive expense or partitioned into a set of mandatory charges. To explain this phenomenon, we introduce a new mechanism whereby price partitioning affects a consumer's perception of the secondary (i.e., nonfocal) benefits derived from a transaction. Four experiments support the hypothesis that a partitioned price increases the amount of attention paid to secondary attributes tagged with distinct price components. Characteristics of the offered secondary attributes such as their perceived value, relative importance, and evaluability can therefore determine whether price partitioning stimulates or hinders demand. Beyond its descriptive and prescriptive implications, this theory contributes to the emerging notion that pricing can transform, as well as capture, the utility of an offer.

Abstract: We develop a robust model for estimating, tracking, and managing brand equity for multicategory brands based on customer survey and financial measures. This model has two components: 1 offering value computed from discounted cash flow analysis and 2 relative brand importance computed from brand choice models such as multinomial logit, heteroscedastic extreme value, and mixed logit. We apply this model to estimate the brand equity of Allstate---a leading insurance company---and its leading competitor, which compete in multiple categories. The model captures the brand's spillover effects from one category to another. In addition, we identify the dimensions that drive a brand's image, examine the relationships among advertising, brand equity, and shareholder value, and build a decision support simulator for the focal brand. Our model provides reliable estimates of brand equity, and our results show that advertising has a strong long-term positive influence on brand equity, which is significantly positively related to shareholder value. The model, the brand equity estimates, and the decision support simulator are used by key executives across multiple functional areas and have enabled the company to substantially gain by reallocating its advertising resources to improve brand equity and shareholder value, and by offering better guidance to analysts and investors.

Abstract: Guadagni and Little 1983 had a surprising to the authors number of citations, presumably because it was the first paper to build a useful model with UPC scanner panel data. More surprising but not ...

Abstract: How can a standardized product survive in a mass-customized world? This requires understanding that consumers often experience problems predicting their future hedonic reactions to new experiences (such as custom products), leading to feelings of regret. This form of regret occurs not because the custom product differs from specifications, but because consumers miswanted the design they ordered. Our analytic model shows that regret aversion induces consumers to design custom products to reflect the attributes of the available standard products. Consequently, regret-averse consumers may choose the standard product rather than place a custom order. The number of available standard products, however, moderates both these effects. Two experiments empirically substantiate the key predictions of the analytical model: (a) the custom product's resemblance to the standard product grows with regret aversion associated with miswanting, (b) there exists a segment of “regretfully loyal consumers” for the standard product in a mass-customized world and it expands with regret aversion, (c) both the above effects are weakened by the presence of a second standard product, and (d) the custom product can increase its market share when the number of standard products increases.

Abstract: This paper develops a model that extends the traditional aggregate discrete-choice-based demand model (e.g. Berry et al. 1995) to account for varying levels of product availability. In cases where not all products are available at every consumer shopping trip, the observed market share is a convolution of two factors: consumer preferences and the availability of the product in stores. Failing to account for the varying degree of availability would produce incorrect estimates of the demand parameters. The proposed model uses information on aggregate availability to simulate the potential assortments that consumers may face in a given shopping trip. The model parameters are estimated by simulating potential product assortment vectors by drawing multivariate Bernoulli vectors consistent with the observed aggregate level of availability. The model is applied to the UK chocolate confectionery market, focusing on the convenience store channel. We compare the parameter estimates to those obtained from not accounting for varying availability and analyze some of the substantive implications.

Abstract: We study two main questions in this paper: (1) How do spillovers of knowledge created by manufacturers' investments in process innovation affect channel structure and effort investment incentives? (2) What are the interactions between organizational incentives to form joint ventures and strategic alliances with competitors, and coordinate decisions vertically with downstream channel members? We focus on situations where spillovers are involuntary, firms' innovative activities are nonoverlapping, and firms benefit directly from the results of competitors' innovations. Under these conditions, we find that spillovers in process knowledge increase the likelihood of observing decentralized channel structures. Surprisingly, decentralized manufacturers invest more in process innovation than perfectly coordinated manufacturers do when spillovers are large. Moreover, in industries where large spillovers exist, horizontal cooperation among manufacturers induces higher levels of process innovation investments than channel coordination does. From a public policy perspective, however, the desirability of such cooperative arrangements among competitors depends on channel structure: joint ventures among decentralized manufacturers are more likely to meet the regulators' criteria of raising effort investments than cooperation among integrated manufacturers would be. Investment incentives are best provided when firms share their process knowledge and are buffered from subsequent price competition by independent retailers.

Abstract: Two widely recognized components, central to the calculation of customer value, are acquisition and retention propensities. However, while extant research has incorporated such components into different types of models, limited work has investigated the kinds of associations that may exist between them. In this research, we focus on the relationship between a prospective customer's time until acquisition of a particular service and the subsequent duration for which he retains it, and examine the implications of this relationship on the value of prospects and customers. To accomplish these tasks, we use a bivariate timing model to capture the relationship between acquisition and retention. Using a split-hazard model, we link the acquisition and retention processes in two distinct yet complementary ways. First, we use the Sarmonov family of bivariate distributions to allow for correlations in the observed acquisition and retention times within a customer; next, we allow for differences across customers using latent classes for the parameters that govern the two processes. We then demonstrate how the proposed methodology can be used to calculate the discounted expected value of a subscription based on the time of acquisition, and discuss possible applications of the modeling framework to problems such as customer targeting and resource allocation.

Abstract: Existing literature discusses a number of possible pioneering cost advantages and disadvantages. In this paper, we empirically test three different sources of long-term pioneering cost advantage---experience curve effects, preemption of input factors, and preemption of ideal market space---and three different sources of pioneering cost disadvantage---imitation, vintage effects, and demand orientation. We disentangle these sources by breaking total cost of a business unit into three different components---purchasing, production, and selling, general, and administrative SG&A costs---and identifying conditions that intensify or reduce the effect of the proposed source. Using two samples of business units, one for consumer goods and one for industrial goods, we find support for five of the six sources of pioneering cost advantage and disadvantage in both samples, while the advantage due to preemption of ideal market space is limited to the consumer goods sample. The unconditional analysis shows a pioneering purchasing cost advantage but even larger pioneering production and SG&A cost disadvantages. The complexity of our obtained findings suggests that managers need to think carefully about their particular conditions before making assumptions about the cost and, therefore, profit implications of a pioneering strategy.

Abstract: In this paper, we propose and operationalize a new method for optimizing shelf arrangements. We show that there are important dependencies between the layout of the shelf and stock-keeping unit (SKU) sales and marketing effectiveness. The importance of these dependencies is further shown by the substantive profit gains we obtain with our proposed shelf optimization approach. The basis of our model is a standard sales equation that explains sales using item-specific marketing effect parameters and intercepts. In a Hierarchical Bayes (HB) fashion, we augment this model with a second layer that relates the effect parameters to shelf and SKU descriptors. We also take into account potential endogeneity of facings. After estimating the parameters of the two-level model using Bayesian methodology, we carefully investigate the dependencies of SKU sales and SKU marketing effectiveness on the shelf layout. Next, we search for the shelf arrangement that maximizes the expected total profit using simulated annealing (SA). We appear to be able to increase profits for all the stores analyzed, and our approach appears to outperform well-known rules of thumb.

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between prices and market concentration in the auto rental industry. We assemble an original database that includes the number of auto rental operators and other exogenous demand and cost conditions at every commercial airport in the country. The data are interesting because we observe a large variation in market structure, ranging from more than 100 monopoly and duopoly markets to several competitive airports with more than eight firms. In addition, we collect daily rental prices in each market that are regressed against the number of operating firms and other control factors. Due to potential biases in treating market participants as exogenously assigned, we employ a two-stage estimation procedure in which an equilibrium model of endogenous market structure provides correction terms for the second-stage price regression. Results show that ignoring the endogeneity of market structure severely underestimates the impact of additional competitors on prices, with the ...

Abstract: With $40 billion in annual gross merchandise volume, electronic auctions comprise a substantial and growing sector of the retail economy. Using unique data on Celtic coins, we estimate a structural model of buyer and seller behavior via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with data augmentation. Results indicate that buyer valuations are affected by item, seller, and auction characteristics; buyer costs are affected by bidding behavior; and seller costs are affected by item characteristics and the number of listings. The model enables us to compute fee elasticities even though there is no variation in fees in our data. We find that commission elasticities exceed per item fee elasticities because they target high-value sellers and enhance their likelihood of listing. By targeting commission reductions to high-value sellers, auction house revenues can be increased by 3.9%. Computing customer value, we find that attrition of the largest seller would decrease fees paid to the auction house by $97. Given the seller paid $127 in fees, competitive effects offset only 24% of those fees. In contrast, competition offsets 81% of the buyer attrition effect. In both events, the auction house would overvalue its customers by neglecting competitive effects.