Abstract: Deterrence theory describes a process of offender decision making that consists of two linkages—one in which official sanctions and other information affect a would-be offender’s perceptions about the risks of criminal conduct, and another in which such perceptions influence the decision whether or not to offend. Decades worth of empirical research has concentrated virtually exclusively on this latter linkage, and in so doing, has produced an incomplete account of the deterrence process. This article develops a model of how perceptions of sanction certainty are modified in response to an individual’s involvement in criminal activity and the consequences (if any) therefrom. Implications of the model are tested with data from a multi-wave, panel survey of 1,530 high school students from the southeastern U.S. Key findings include: the manner in which new information affects perceived certainty depends on the level of perceived certainty before the new information is received, and the extent of peer offending was one of the most influential factors in determining change in perceived sanction certainty over time.

Abstract: This study examined the measurement of low self-control as well as the low self-control-deviance relationship in a sample of N = 335 Japanese late adolescents. Participants completed the Grasmick et al. low self-control instrument and the Normative Deviance Scale (NDS). Findings indicated that the low self-control measure was a valid and reliable indicator of low self-control among male and female Japanese late adolescents and that it was multi-dimensional. Furthermore, the study provided evidence that low self-control was consistently related to diverse measures of deviance, ranging from trivial to more serious norm-violating behaviors (e.g., assault). Finally, in a series of comparisons of partial unstandardized regression coefficients between Japanese and U.S. late adolescents, the study found that the low self-control-deviance relationship was invariant across all measures of deviance with the exception of alcohol use. Findings are discussed in terms of their importance for cross-cultural/cross-national predictions made by the General Theory of Crime.

Abstract: This response to “Methodological Sensitivities to Latent Class Analysis of Long-Term Criminal Trajectories” is intended to make three key points: (1) the data sensitivities that are explored in that paper are examples of two generic data problems that transcend the specific methodology used to analyze longitudinal data, (2) while real sensitivities are identified, the overall stability of results is also noteworthy, and (3) the groups must be understood to be approximations.

Abstract: With availability of crime data to the public via sources such as the Uniform Crime Reports, and increasing geographic information system (GIS) capabilities for mapping crime, macro-level studies of crime have advanced knowledge of how crime is distributed over large areas. Choropleth mapping, commonly used in macro-level studies, visually displays data by assigning the number of crimes or crime rate to the corresponding spatial unit and using different shades or textures for each value or classified values creating a thematic map. However, crime incidents or crime rates are not dispersed evenly within spatial units, and choropleth mapping masks the underlying nuances of the distribution. Artificial boundaries, along with variations in the size of the unit of analysis, can further distort the true distribution of crime. Dasymetric mapping provides a methodology for refining the distribution of crime within a spatial unit. It does so by using additional data, such as land use and census data, to provide a realistic estimate of how crime may be distributed within the units of analysis. Dasymetric mapping is also useful in creating density maps to reveal clusters of crime normally masked with choropleth maps. This paper will show how dasymetric mapping can estimate the spatial distribution of aggregate level residential burglary within political boundaries in Massachusetts based on land use and housing data.

Abstract: Traditional strain theory received substantial empirical attention for a prolonged period of time, but it currently occupies a marginal position in criminology. Efforts to revitalize and elaborate it have occurred under the rubric of Agnew's general strain theory. These theories share a focus on how contextual factors, in particular what are commonly referred to as opportunity structures, affect the relationship between stresses and strains and delinquency. Using national-level data, this study considers empirically the impact of several illegitimate opportunity structures conceptualized at the school-level on the association between strain, stressful life events, delinquency, and self-concept. The results indicate that both stress and strain affect changes in delinquency and self-concept over time. Yet there is little evidence that these relationships are conditioned by access to illegitimate opportunity. These results suggest that strain and stress affect delinquency uniformly across a variety of illegitimate opportunity structures.

Abstract: This paper investigates inequality in criminal victimization in the United States over the past quarter century. By analyzing data from the National Crime Victimization Survey, it shows that the crime drop since the early 1970s has benefited upper-income households much more than the poor, so that criminal victimization has become more concentrated among the poor (particularly in the area of nonstranger violence). The paper then decomposes this trend statistically in order to investigate factors that may explain it. That analysis finds that demographic changes in each quintile explain a significant share of the growing concentration of criminal victimization among the poor.

Abstract: Numerous studies have established a strong connection between the use of illicit drugs and the commission of other illegal activities, including both predatory and property crimes. No study, however, has examined the cost of crimes associated with drug users both as victims and as perpetrators. In the present study, recent data were analyzed from a targeted sample of chronic drug users (CDUs) and a matched sample of non-drug users (NDUs) in Miami-Dade County, Florida, to estimate the incremental cost of crime associated with CDU. Two separate models were employed to estimate (1) the probability of being a victim or a perpetrator of crime and (2) the cost of crime for both situations. The cost measures were transformed to reduce the influence of extreme outliers, and a smearing technique was used to compare the cost of crime for CDUs relative to NDUs. The findings illustrate that criminal activity among CDUs is circular, extensive, and costly. Implications for law enforcement, criminal justice policy, and substance abuse treatment are discussed.

Abstract: This study examines the protective effects of education and marriage against homicide mortality in Russia. Individual data are obtained from death records and population data from the 1994 micro-census, and differentials in mortality from homicide are estimated employing two different methods: a straightforward approach using census data and proportional mortality analysis. We find that the latter underestimates the impact of education on homicide mortality. Despite differences in effect sizes, however, both methods reveal a significantly higher risk of homicide victimization for those that are unmarried and less educated. We conclude that education and marriage likely provide social capital and coping skills that protect individuals against violent victimization, even during times of dramatic social change and dire economic circumstances such as those faced in transitional Russia.

Abstract: We model the initiation process into cannabis and hard drugs using long-term survivor analysis. This approach hypothesizes two sub-populations: a population that is ‘‘immune’’ to drugs, who will never use them no matter how long they live, and a population which is ‘‘susceptible’’ to drugs for whom it is a matter of time until they begin to use drugs. We use data for Israel to test competing hypotheses concerning the timing of drug use initiation and the determination of susceptibility. Cigarettes do not significantly affect immunity to drugs, but they tend to speed up the rate of initiation for those who smoke them. This implies that antismoking policy may only delay drug use initiation without affecting immunity. Finally, drug initiation in Israel is not explained by variables that are traditionally associated with criminality.

Abstract: This article develops two distinct explanations for the failure of potential consequences to influence behavior. Discounting is the tendency to deliberatively devalue the future. In contrast, poor impulse control refers to the failure to consider the future. The implications of this distinction were investigated with data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health. The study produced several findings. First, both forms of present-orientation independently predicted a range of problem outcomes among respondents. Second, high discounting was a better predictor of deliberative or future-related problem outcomes, whereas poor impulse control was a better predictor of urge driven behaviors or conduct involving little forethought. Third, only poor impulse control but not high discounting predicted violent offending among respondents. While both forms of present-orientation were associated with property offending, high discounting was a stronger and more consistent predictor. These three findings were far more evident for males than they were for females.

Abstract: In articulating models of offender decision-making, researchers have tended to focus on either deterrence/rational choice or situational/emotional considerations. In this paper, we merge these two lines of inquiry and examine how rational choice considerations and perceived angry reactions inter-relate in predicting assaultive violence. Using data collected on a random sample of young adults, we assess three hypotheses. First, that both rational choice and perceived anger exhibit additive effects on assault. Second, that perceived anger influences how rational choice considerations are interpreted. Third, that rational choice considerations influence assault under different levels of perceived anger, and in particular, that the effect of sanction threats fall apart under high perceived anger. Future theoretical and empirical directions are outlined.

Abstract: We identify and elaborate a conceptual distinction between capability for self-control and the desire to exercise it, and employ data from a city survey to explore the empirical viability of such a differentiation. Separate scales measuring ability and desire to exercise self-control both prove to be significant and moderately strong predictors of several measures of criminal/deviant behavior, showing independent, cumulative, and interactive relationships with each other. For some measures of crime/deviance, self-control capability is most effective when the individual's interest in exercising self-control is low but its effect is greatly reduced or eliminated when desire to exercise self-control desire is high. Combinations of capability for self-control and interest in exercising it prove to be particularly good predictors of the absolute level of misbehavior.

Abstract: A recent and growing body of research has employed a semiparametric group-based approach to discover underlying developmental trajectories of crime. Enthusiasm for such latent class models has not been matched with robustness and sensitivity analyses to determine how conclusions from the method vary according to fundamental methodological problems that inhere in criminological data. Using a sample of 500 delinquent boys and their official crime counts from ages 7 to 70, this paper systematically addresses how three concerns in longitudinal research—(a) length of follow-up, (b) the inclusion of exposure time (incarceration), and (3) data on involuntary desistance through death—influence our inferences about developmental trajectories. While there is some evidence of stability, a comparison of group number, shape, and group assignment across varying conditions indicates that all three data considerations can alter trajectory attributes in important ways. More precisely, longer-term data on offending and the inclusion of incarceration and mortality information appear to be key pieces of information, especially when analyzing high-rate offending patterns.

Abstract: Neighborhood incivilities—minor breaches of order such as vandalism, vacant houses, and trash on the streets—are, as a group, important causes of fear of crime and neighborhood dissatisfaction. Nevertheless, it is uncertain how much individual incivilities differ in importance, and which incivilities are most important. A survey of residents of 30 Baltimore neighborhoods suggests that different incivilities influence perceptions of the amount of crime, fear of crime, and neighborhood satisfaction, and that the patterns of influence differ among neighborhoods. As a result, top-down and city-wide responses to crime, fear, and neighborhood satisfaction problems may be less effective than responses tailored to individual neighborhood conditions.

Abstract: In response to Nagin's comment on our paper, “Methodological Sensitivities to Latent Class Analysis of Long-Term Criminal Trajectories,” we reconsider the robustness and validity of group-based approaches to criminal trajectories and introduce additional issues for future research. We emphasize the limitations of typological approaches and the dangers of reifying the idea of distinct offender groupings for research and policy. We also clarify misunderstandings about the use of hierarchical linear models for studying trajectories of crime. Our basic conclusion is that methods in criminology need to be more tightly linked with theory.

Abstract: The importance of the relation between impulsivity and deviance is well-acknowledged among criminologists. However, differences in the representations of impulsivity, some merely titular and others substantive, may cloud our understanding of these relations. The current study examines the argument, offered by Whiteside and Lynam Pers. Individuals Diff. (2000) 30: 669–689, that there may be four distinct personality pathways through which impulsive behavior may be manifested. Across three samples (two undergraduate, one community), we examine the validity of a four-factor structure of impulsivity, test whether these four pathways manifest divergent relations with various forms of deviant behavior such as crime and substance use, as well as laboratory manifestations of aggressive and impulsive behavior, and examine the invariance of these results across gender. The results support the existence of a four-factor model of impulsivity, the importance of two specific personality pathways in relation to self-reports of deviance (lack of premeditation and sensation seeking), as well as actual behavior, and suggest that these pathways are important for both men and women.