Abstract: PurposeThis study investigates how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine impacts global inflation.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from 60 countries for 30 months, from January 2020 to June 2022. An event study methodology has been employed to check abnormal variation in the CPI, after classifying country-specific monthly data into nine groups.FindingsThe outcome revealed that Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered inflation globally. However, the severity of inflation in the sample countries is determined by their geographical proximity and trading activity with the countries in conflict. A significant rise in inflation was observed among major European economies during the invasion. As the war continues, the increase in the price of essential commodities is evident worldwide.Originality/valueThe war literature till now has concentrated on stock markets, energy markets, exchange rates and precious metals. Since no previous research has attempted to quantify the abnormal effect of the war on domestic and global inflation, the current study will shed much-needed light on the subject.

Abstract: Purpose In this paper, the heterogeneity of the linkages among financial development, productivity and growth across income groups is emphasized.Design/methodology/approach An empirical analysis is conducted with an illustrative sample of 130 economies over the period 1991–2019 and classified into four subsamples: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), developing, least developed and net food importing developing countries. Forecast error variance decompositions and panel vector auto-regressive estimations are computed, with insightful findings.Findings Higher levels of output stimulate the economic development in the agricultural sector, mainly via the productivity channel and, in the most developed economies, also through access to credit. Differently, in developing and least developed economies, the role of access to credit is marginal. The findings have practical implications for stakeholders involved in the planning of long-run investments. In less developed economies, priorities should be given to investments in technology and innovation, whereas financial markets are more suited to boost the development of the agricultural sector of developed economies.Originality/value The authors conclude on the credit–output–productivity nexus and contribute to the literature in (at least) three ways. First, they assess how credit access, agricultural output and agricultural productivity are jointly determined. Second, they use a novel approach, which departs from most of the case studies based on single-country data. Third, they conclude on potential causality links to conclude on policy implications.

Abstract: PurposeThis paper provides a thorough examination of Socios.com, a blockchain platform that integrates token sales with the fan experience in the sports industry. The study focuses on three key aspects: the performance, bubble phenomenon and dynamics of fan tokens. The author aims to address important questions that may concern potential supporters and investors. Might sports fans incur financial losses due to their team loyalty? Is the fan token market just a passing trend? Are fan tokens driven by the behaviour of the cryptocurrency market?Design/methodology/approachThis analysis aims to involve several methodologies. The author evaluates the short- and long-term performance of fan tokens by computing first-day and buy-and-hold (abnormal) returns. The author also employs the Phillips, Shi, and Yu's (PSY) real-time bubble detection method to investigate the presence of bubble phenomenon in the fan token market segment. Finally, the author examines the potential dependences between fan tokens, Chiliz and the cryptocurrency market (represented by the CCi30 index) using both Pearson/Kendall correlations and the wavelet coherence approach.FindingsThe study presents three notable contributions to the existing literature. First, the author demonstrates that investing in fan tokens to support one's favourite sports teams can lead to financial losses, whereas traders can potentially outperform the market by investing in Chiliz. Second, the author states that fan tokens were a short-lived trend, as evidenced by their decline in value after the bubble burst in 2021. Third, the findings indicate that the fan token market was influenced by the cryptocurrency market and Chiliz during periods of market downturns.Originality/valueTo the best of author’s knowledge, this is the first paper to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the performance, bubble phenomenon and dynamics of the token market fan segment, along with the exclusive on-platform currency, Chiliz.

Abstract: PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the impact of remittance inflows on sustained economic growth in India.Design/methodology/approachThis study has taken a time series dataset for the period of 1976–2021, and a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model technique (NARDL) has been applied to check the impact of remittance inflows along with other control variables, including broad money and service sector performance, on the sustained economic growth of India.FindingsThe results of the study indicated that in both the short and long runs, any positive shock in remittance inflows has a positive impact on the economic growth of India, while negative shocks do not affect economic growth.Practical implicationsThe economic policymakers of India can use the findings of the study by implementing remittance-friendly policies. Moreover, NITI Aayog, the body working toward achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) in India, can also use this study as a reference while making strategies to achieve SDG.Originality/valueEconomic growth has always been an area of interest among economists, researchers and policymakers. However, achieving sustained economic growth requires an analysis of those factors that themselves have sustained performance over a long period of time and have the potential to sustain it over the upcoming years. This study has taken remittance inflows as one such factor and investigated its impact on the sustained economic growth of India. At present, there is an evident gap in the literature that very little attention has been given to sustained Indian economic growth. Moreover, there is no study available in which the nonlinear impact of different variables has been tested on the economic growth of India.

Abstract: PurposeUsing textual analysis the authors study the relationship between social media sentiments and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic.Design/methodology/approachThe study analysis is based on a sample of 1,616,007 tweets over the period January to June 2021 for seven countries. The authors process the tweets via the VADER analyzer thereby producing both positive and negative sentiment measures.FindingsParticularly, the authors prove that higher positivism is associated with a short-term increase in stock prices. On the other side, negativism relates inversely to stock prices with long-term impact, in the case of English-spoken countries. Notably, the study results remain robust to the inclusion of various control variables, including virtual fear and Google vaccine indexes. Finally, the authors prove that positivism is associated with higher returns and lower volatility in the short-run, while negativism is linked with lower returns in the short run.Practical implicationsThe study analysis also has significant policy implications for researchers, investors and policymakers. First, researchers can employ our measures to quantify market sentiments and expand their research arsenal to incorporate social media trends, thus providing better explanatory power. Second, during times of severe uncertainty such as in a pandemic period, investors could beneficially take into account our textual measures and empirical results when using asset pricing models or constructing their portfolios. Third, the finding that the stock market is heavily governed by sentimental behaviors, especially during crisis periods, implies that policymakers including central banks, governments and capital market commissions must consider these sentiments before exerting their policies. In this regard, governments can effectively develop policy tools and approaches to manage recovery from the pandemic, which translates to greater long-term economic resilience. Moreover, central banks should accordingly adjust their monetary policy measures in order to stabilize financial markets, and by extension, to stop the pandemic from turning into a renewed financial crisis. For example, asset purchase program is considered the main instrument of this kind of intervention.Originality/valueThe authors confirm that this work is original and has not been published elsewhere, nor is it currently under consideration for publication elsewhere. The paper should be of interest to readers in the areas of finance.

Abstract: Purpose This study is the first to investigate the causal relationship between Bitcoin and equity price returns by sectors. Previous studies have focused on aggregated indices such as S&P500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones, but this study uses mixed frequency and disaggregated data at the sectoral level. This allows the authors to examine the nature, direction and strength of causality between Bitcoin and equity prices in different sectors in more detail. Design/methodology/approach This paper utilizes an Unrestricted Asymmetric Mixed Data Sampling (U-AMIDAS) model to investigate the effect of high-frequency Bitcoin returns on a low-frequency series equity returns. This study also examines causality running from equity to Bitcoin returns by sector. The sample period covers United States (US) data from 3 Jan 2011 to 14 April 2023 across nine sectors: materials, energy, financial, industrial, technology, consumer staples, utilities, health and consumer discretionary. Findings The study found that there is no causality running from Bitcoin to equity returns in any sector except for the technology sector. In the tech sector, lagged Bitcoin returns Granger cause changes in future equity prices asymmetrically. This means that falling Bitcoin prices significantly influence the tech sector during market pullbacks, but the opposite cannot be said during market rallies. The findings are consistent with those of other studies that have established that during market pullbacks, individual asset prices have a tendency to decline together, whereas during market rallies, they have a tendency to rise independently. In contrast, this study finds evidence of causality running from all sectors of the equity market to Bitcoin. Practical implications The findings have significant implications for investors and fund managers, emphasizing the need to consider the asymmetric causality between Bitcoin and the tech sector. Investors should avoid excessive exposure to both Bitcoin and tech stocks in their portfolio, as this may lead to significant drawdowns during market corrections. Diversification across different asset classes and sectors may be a more prudent strategy to mitigate such risks. Originality/value The study's findings underscore the need for investors to pay close attention to the frequency and disaggregation of data by sector in order to fully understand the true extent of the relationship between Bitcoin and the equity market.

Abstract: PurposeThe purpose of this study is to test the modulating role and threshold of governance quality in the cost of living–energy poverty nexus.Design/methodology/approachTwo-step System Generalized Methods of Moment empirical model with linear interaction between cost of living and governance quality was estimated. This study used data on 40 African countries over 20 years (2000–2019).FindingsThe paper shows that the conditional effect of inflation on energy poverty is negative. Thus, governance quality acts as a moderator on the relationship between inflation and energy poverty beyond a threshold. The study's principal practical implication is that governance quality reverses inflation's positive unconditional effect on energy poverty, and governance quality may be improved beyond specific policy-defined thresholds to achieve the desired goal of lowering energy poverty. Nonetheless, governance quality at initial stages would not drive the needed reduction in energy poverty unless it goes beyond the threshold of 0.03, 0.02 and 0.07.Research limitations/implicationsThis study recommends that policymakers should initiate policies that would ensure increased access to clean energy.Originality/valueThis study's main contributions are that the authors estimated the threshold beyond which governance quality reverses the adverse impact of inflation on energy poverty. Further, the authors have shown that governance quality is a catalyst to reduce energy poverty.

Abstract: PurposeThis study aims to investigate the market reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, specifically in the banking sector.Design/methodology/approachThe research uses an event study and cross-sectional analysis, with market reaction measured by cumulative abnormal return (CAR). The sample comprised 1,126 banks.FindingsThe results show that the market reacted negatively to the invasion both before and after its announcement. Developed and emerging markets saw a negative impact from the invasion, while frontier markets experienced only a slight impact. The authors also find that the banking markets of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members reacted significantly and negatively both before and after the invasion was announced. This demonstrates that the negative market reaction of NATO members was more impactful than that of other markets. Overall, this study shows that investors in the banking market are very sensitive to war.Originality/valueThis is the first study to provide international evidence, specifically on the banking sector's reaction during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Abstract: PurposeThis paper investigates the short-term market impact of the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine (February 24, 2022) on a set of airline stocks listed.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses an event study methodology, cross-section analyses and interaction effects to study the effect of the war on airline stock prices and firm-specific characteristics that explain the cumulative abnormal return.FindingsThe authors observe a negative and statistically significant stock price reaction at and around the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, for 74 listed airlines. These results are consistent with investment portfolio rebalancing and asset pricing perspective. Moreover, this study's results show a higher negative stock market reaction for airlines based in Europe. Empirical evidence suggests the existence of a “proximity penalty” for European companies. Finally, this study's results provide insights into which airline-specific characteristics emerge as value drivers. Larger, well-capitalized (high liquidity and low debt) and profitable airlines firms with less institutional ownership have superior stock market returns and show more able to handle with the losses resulting from the war.Originality/valueThis paper fills a gap in the literature about the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the airline industry.

Abstract: PurposeEmpirical studies regarding the impact of the real exchange rate (RER) on economic growth are extensively available. However, the literature as a whole appears to report varying results, while the causes of such differences have not been analyzed systematically. The present study aims to fill the gap in the literature.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, the authors compile 543 empirical estimates from 51 studies of the exchange rate-growth nexus in order to meta-analyze its relationship. Meta-analysis allows the authors to quantitatively synthesize previous empirical studies and explain the variation in the results. This method also enables us to investigate the possibility of publication bias, as there is a tendency in research only to report results that are both statistically significant and show the expected signs.FindingsAfter addressing publication bias and heterogeneity in the estimates, the meta-regression results show that RER depreciation (or undervaluation) genuinely favors economic growth. On average, RER depreciation has a greater impact on economic growth in developing countries than the developed ones. The study’s results imply that maintaining an undervalued RER could be favorable to spur economic growth, especially in developing countries.Originality/valueInitially predominant in the medical literature, meta-analysis has been on a rising edge in economics. This progress has produced many systematic quantitative review analyses with continuously improved statistical-econometric practices related to economic variables. However, to the authors’ knowledge, no comprehensive meta-regression analysis of the relationship between exchange rate and economic growth has been conducted and published in any publicly accessible academic outlet. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap in the literature.

Abstract: PurposeThe authors empirically aim to study the implications of uncertainty generated by oil price volatility on some key macroeconomic variables, including production, exchange rates and interest rates, of both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Using a block exogeneity structural Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model that mutes the effects of domestic variables on global factors and that is suitable for small open economies because of significant differences in the responses of domestic production in oil-importing countries will most likely decrease through reducing planning horizons, postponing investment projects and relocating resources more inefficiently.Design/methodology/approachThe authors integrated into the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model the block exogeneity feature since all the countries in this study are small open economies that cannot influence the global economic variables. The block exogeneity feature imposes the restriction that the domestic variables have neither a contemporaneous nor a lagged impact on the global variables. This model has eight variables: oil price volatility, world demand and federal funds rate as the global variables; and domestic production, monetary aggregate, inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate as domestic variables. The authors assemble the data for 12 developing countries for which the necessary data for the analysis are available: six oil exporting countries (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Colombia) and six oil importing countries (Turkey, India, Philippines, Poland, South Africa and Indonesia).FindingsThe results point out significant differences in the responses of macroeconomic variables to oil price volatility shocks between oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Furthermore, the local currencies of these countries depreciate due to concerns about possible current account worsening. In response to the shock, domestic interest rates are reduced so as to alleviate the negative exposure of the shock on domestic economic activity. While domestic production in some oil-exporting countries (i.e. Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran) increases during oil price uncertainty; in some other countries (i.e. Mexico, Kazakhstan and Colombia), domestic production decreases.Originality/valueSeveral components of the study contribute to its novelty. One of them is the period under consideration. The time frame that encompasses the most significant geopolitical and financial events, such as the Middle East Spring and the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. The research was conducted using the block-exogeneity SVAR model, which includes 12 oil exporting and importing developing countries. With this model, the global dynamics, particularly the energy market, that these nations may influence and are influenced by, i.e. global and nonglobal factors can be constrained. This makes it easy to determine the various effects prices have on macroeconomic variables.HighlightsOil prices and volatility still matter to the global economyMonetary and fiscal policy interventions in response to oil price volatility create uncertainty and impede investment activityThe response of macroeconomic variables to volatility shocks in oil prices varies across oil importers and exportersInterest rates help stabilize production in oil-importing economies that have well-functioning financial markets

Abstract: PurposeThe gender pay gap is a well-documented phenomenon in labor economics. Based on the 2018 Structure of Earnings Survey (SES), the authors estimate the impact of observable characteristics on the gender pay gap in Visegrad Group countries and provide policy recommendations on reducing the gender pay gap.Design/methodology/approachThe Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition is applied to estimate the values of explained and unexplained parts of the gender pay gap. Gender pay gap in unadjusted as well as adjusted form is estimated using data on the individual level.FindingsThe results show that unadjusted gender pay gap proved to be stable at more than 20%. The authors found evidence that education widens gender pay gap implying that men have higher returns on education than women. Tertiary education proved to be the highest contributor to widening of gender pay gap. Results also show that there is strong sectoral and occupational segregation. Decomposition proved that only 21% of gender pay gap could be explained by observed characteristics. The unexplained part showed negative values, meaning women would have higher wages, if they had characteristics like men.Research limitations/implicationsStructure of Earnings Survey data are published every four years; therefore the authors’ dataset from year 2018 might not completely reflect today's reality. Unfortunately, newer data are note available yet. Second, Structure of Earning Survey data do not contain variables representing social factors of respondents like marital status, number of children or labour market absence due to birth or childcare. Third, data used for this study do not contain firms that have less than 10 employees; therefore, considerable portion of the labour market is omitted.Originality/valueResults of this study will help policymakers understand the roots and causes of the gender pay gap in Visegrad Group countries but addressing this issue requires further research.

Abstract: Purpose This study adopts a new macro-perspective to explore the complex and dynamic links between financial instability and the Euro-American green equity market. Its primary focus and novelty is to shed light on the non-linear and asymmetric characteristics of dependence, causality, and contagion within various time and frequency domains. Specifically, the authors scrutinize how financial instability in the U.S. and EU interacts with their respective green stock markets, while also examining the cross-impact on each other's green equity markets. The analysis is carried out over short-, medium- and long-term horizons and under different market conditions, ranging from bearish and normal to bullish. Design/methodology/approach This study breaks new ground by employing a model-free and non-parametric approach to examine the relationship between the instability of the global financial system and the green equity market performance in the U.S. and EU. This study's methodology offers new insights into the time- and frequency-varying relationship, using wavelet coherence supplemented with quantile causality and quantile-on-quantile regression analyses. This advanced approach unveils non-linear and asymmetric causal links and characterizes their signs, effectively distinguishing between bearish, normal, and bullish market conditions, as well as short-, medium- and long-term horizons. Findings This study's findings reveal that financial instability has a strong negative impact on the green stock market over the medium to long term, in bullish market conditions and in times of economic and extra-economic turbulence. This implies that green stocks cannot be an effective hedge against systemic financial risk during periods of turbulence and euphoria. Moreover, the authors demonstrate that U.S. financial instability not only affects the U.S. green equity market, but also has significant spillover effects on the EU market and vice versa, indicating the existence of a Euro-American contagion mechanism. Interestingly, this study's results also reveal a positive correlation between financial instability and green equity market performance under normal market conditions, suggesting a possible feedback loop effect. Originality/value This study represents pioneering work in exploring the non-linear and asymmetric connections between financial instability and the Euro-American stock markets. Notably, it discerns how these interactions vary over the short, medium, and long term and under different market conditions, including bearish, normal, and bullish states. Understanding these characteristics is instrumental in shaping effective policies to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including access to clean, affordable energy (SDG 7), and to preserve the stability of the international financial system.

Abstract: PurposeIndia is not geographically close to either Russia or Ukraine. However, India's trade relations with them make it vulnerable to the consequences of the war between these countries. Thus, the present study aims to examine the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on various sectoral indices of the Indian economy.Design/methodology/approachEvent study methodology has been used in this study for analysis. The date of the war announcement is the event day. The sample studied includes ten sectors of the Indian economy listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Results correspond to the period of −167 days to +20 days of the announcement of the war, i.e. from June 25, 2021, to March 28, 2022.FindingsAlmost all the sample sectors earned significantly positive abnormal returns in the post-event period. The metal industry has led this group by showcasing the highest abnormal returns. Though Indian sectors made overall positive returns, the market soon corrected itself and abnormal returns were wiped out.Practical implicationsThese results can benefit portfolio managers, analysts, investors and policymakers in hedging risks and selecting suitable investments during increased global uncertainty. The study's conclusions help policymakers establish an institutional and supervisory framework that will make it easier to spot systematic risks and reduce them by putting countercyclical measures in place.Originality/valueIndia has no geographical proximity or trade relations with Russia or Ukraine, as strong as any other European country. However, Russia has remained a strong ally to India in the trade of defense equipment. Similar is the case with Ukraine, a significant global partner for India. Thus, the impact of conflict between these two countries has not been limited to Europe only but has also engulfed related economies. Hence, the present study is one of the first attempts to examine the burns sustained by the Indian economy due to this war.

Abstract: PurposeSince financial sector plays a critical economic role in Hong Kong, the current research aims to comprehensively analyze the association between financial development and economic growth in the country to draw correct conclusions about the impact that financial sector's development has on the growth of the economy. This requires both using of more comprehensive data that includes all or nearly all elements of the country's financial sector and utilizing advanced econometrics techniques to provide more reliable evidence based on the findings. In the study, both issues have been addressed more academically to aid the relevant authorities better.Design/methodology/approachThis study empirically examines the financial development-economic growth nexus in Hong Kong employing data covering 1980–2019. The quantile-on-quantile (QQ) approach of Sim and Zhou (2015) is utilized to investigate certain subtle aspects of the association linking financial development and economic growth. In addition, the authors benefit from applying the nonlinear Granger causality test of Diks and Panchenko (2006) to assess the variables' nexus in a nonlinear manner.FindingsIn contrast to the evidence of a unidirectional linkage documented in many related studies, the empirical findings suggest that a bi-directional relationship exists between financial development and economic growth for Hong Kong. This is a helpful input for the relevant policymakers and implies that they can set appropriate policies and regulations to balance financial development and economic growth in this country.Originality/valueThe originality of this study can be divided into two parts. Methodologically, unlike past studies that utilized mostly linear and parametric methods, the paper contributes to the literature by applying the more robust nonparametric and nonlinear methodologies. Theoretically, most researchers have used various financial development indicators, which led to very different conclusions. Therefore, this study attempts to resolve this deficiency in the literature by using a more comprehensive index for financial development.

Abstract: PurposeThis paper documents a robust empirical regularity: higher trade openness is associated with a lower unemployment rate. This paper also examines whether or not the effects of trade liberalisation depend on countries' income levels. Further, the dynamic causation between trade openness and unemployment is also examined.Design/methodology/approachIn order to obtain insight into the openness–unemployment nexus, following empirical methods were utilised - static panel models, dynamic panel models and a novel panel Granger causality approach proposed by Juodis et al. (2021).FindingsResults suggest that openness negatively affects unemployment; the extent to which trade liberalisation affects unemployment depends on the income level of each country. The Juodis, Karavias, and Sarafidis (JKS) test confirmed that the past values of trade openness, inflation, foreign direct investment and gross domestic product per capita contain information that helps to predict unemployment in a more robust manner. To simply put, opening upto trade may eventually become a requirement for creating more job opportunities, but this alone may not be enough. The extent to which nations benefit from trade liberalisation is largely dependent on the overall economic conditions and their capability to move up the income scale.Originality/valueA major difference between this study and those performed previously is that this study does not only examine the impact of trade openness on unemployment, but also investigates whether the unemployment effect of liberalisation is affected by countries' income levels – an issue that has received little attention in the past. Additionally, the unique panel non-causality approach put forth by Juodis et al. (2021) is used in the first instance to look into the causal link between trade openness and unemployment. This method has advantages in that the method enables capturing Granger-causality in homogeneous or heterogeneous panels amongst multiple variables.

Abstract: Purpose This study empirically examines the impact of climate change and agricultural research and development (R&D) as well as their interaction on agricultural productivity in 12 selected Asian and Pacific countries over the period of 1990–2018. Design/methodology/approach Various estimation methods for panel data, including Fixed Effects (FE), the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) and two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) were used. Findings Results show that both proxies of climate change – temperature and precipitation – have negative impacts on agricultural productivity. Notably, agricultural R&D investments not only increase agricultural productivity but also mitigate the detrimental impact of climate change proxied by temperature on agricultural productivity. Interestingly, climate change proxied by precipitation initially reduces agricultural productivity until a threshold of agricultural R&D beyond which precipitation increases agricultural productivity. Practical implications The findings imply useful policies to boost agricultural productivity by using R&D in the context of rising climate change in the vulnerable continent. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature in two ways. First, this study examines how climate change affects agricultural productivity in Asian and Pacific countries – those are most vulnerable to climate change. Second, this study assesses the role of R&D in improving agricultural productivity as well as its moderating effect in reducing the harmful impact of climate change on agricultural productivity.

Abstract: PurposeThis paper explores international trade of the Chinese manufacturing industries through the lenses of network analysis (NA) to visualise the world trade network of the Chinese economy, describe its topology and better explain the international organisation of Chinese manufacturing industries.Design/methodology/approachThe authors built a dataset of 40,550 Chinese companies and their 107,026 subsidiaries in 118 countries from Orbis-BVD and used a NA to investigate the connection between China and other countries. In particular, the authors studied the connections between Chinese companies and their subsidiaries in order to build a network of Chinese industries.FindingsThe authors found that the network of Chinese companies is ramified but not wide and it can be divided into two clusters. Moreover, the relations between China and other peripheral countries are strongly mediated by a few leading locations (e.g. Hong Kong and the USA).Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the literature in several ways. First, the authors provide empirical evidence on the magnitude and ramifications of Chinese enterprises in the world. The existing studies generally focus on applying NA to sectoral insights (Mao and Yang, 2012; Shaikh et al., 2016; Zheng et al., 2016; Wanzenbö ck, 2018; Krichene et al., 2019), whereas in this work the authors take a comprehensive view of the entire Chinese manufacturing system. Second, this paper complements the existing literature identifying the difference between cluster levels in Chinese manufacturing (Wu and Jiang, 2011) by proposing a cluster centralisation method to analyse the international network of Chinese firms rather than just the national network. Finally, the results also shed light on the international trade relationship between China, Hong Kong and the USA.

Abstract: Purpose In this work, the authors analyze the dynamic interdependencies between military expenditures and the real economy for the period 1970–2018, and the authors' approach allows for the existence of dominant economies in the system. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the authors employ a Network General Equilibrium GVAR (global vector autoregressive) model. Findings By accounting for the interconnection among the top twelve military spenders, the authors' findings show that China acts as a leader in the global military scene based on the respective centrality measures. Meanwhile, statistically significant deviations from equilibrium are observed in most of the economies' military expenses, when subjected to an unanticipated unit shock of other countries. Nonetheless, in the medium run, the shocks tend to die out and economies converge to an equilibrium position. Originality/value With the authors' methodology the authors are able to capture not only the effect of nearness on a country's military spending, as the past literature has documented, but also a country's defense and economic dependencies with other countries and how a unit's military expenses could shape the spending of the rest. Using state-to-the-art quantitative and econometric techniques, the authors provide robust and comprehensive analysis.

Abstract: PurposeToday, the increasing use of fossil fuels, energy security, concerns and the great importance of achieving sustainable economic growth underscore the urgent need to transition to a green energy system as soon as possible. To shed light on the relationship between the economy and renewable energy, this study assesses the nonlinear relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth for 24 OECD countries between 1990 and 2015.Design/methodology/approachThe authors apply two nonlinear models: panel threshold regression (PTR) and panel smooth transition regression (PSTR).FindingsThe results show that the positive effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth is conditional. On the one hand, the results of the nonlinear PTR model yielded a threshold value for renewable energy consumption of about 251.17. Below this threshold, the authors find a negative impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth. However, above this threshold, renewable energy consumption becomes a favorable source of economic growth. Using the nonlinear PSTR model based on the gamma transition parameter of 2.014, the transition from low renewable energy consumption regime to higher is abrupt.Originality/valueReferring to previous studies analyzing linear causality between renewable energy and economic growth, most of the results show various mixed and non-stable effects over the study period. The contributions of this study consist in conduct a series of empirical tests of the nonlinear effects of renewable energy use on economic growth using two nonlinear approaches such as the PTR and PSTR models. If the authors show that such a relationship is nonlinear, it is essential to check whether the transition from one weak regime to another strong regime is abrupt or smooth, using the PSTR approach.

Abstract: An assessment of the policies and a review of the heterogeneous impact provide information valuable for resource allocations, cross-country cooperation, economic recovery and development and inequalities and poverty reduction around the world. [...]the measures could not mitigate the initial income reduction and only had a temporary positive effect on consumption expenditure. [...]education disparities were observed between 25 and 50%.

Abstract: PurposeThis study aims to present a bibliometric analysis of research on pensions and retirement systems over the past 100 years. The study examines the intellectual structure and mapping in the field of pension and retirement; uncovers growth and publication patterns; identifies thematic areas in the pension domain; provides analysis of gaps; and recommends direction for future research.Design/methodology/approachThe study sourced data from the Scopus database between 1910 and 2022 covering a 112-year period. Employing bibliometric techniques, a total of 6,661 papers were selected and analyzed using SPSS and VOSviewer software.FindingsResults from the cluster analysis suggest research in this domain has focused on five thematic areas namely pension plans, retirement systems, pension schemes, demographic, and socio-economic determinants of pension and retirement decisions. The authors show from the overlay visualization output how these themes have evolved within the period under review. The study further presents major developments, conclusions and suggestions for future research directions based on insights obtained from the research themes to enrich the field of pension and retirement planning.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is useful for informing researchers and practitioners on the state of the pension domain, and findings are useful avenues in developing the research field.Originality/valueThe study adds to existing literature on pension and retirement by offering an analysis of the state of pension research over a century and highlighting areas for future research.

Abstract: PurposeThe present research aims at identifying the latent factors that are driving the rise of the shadow economy in Palestine, assesses its magnitude from 1998 to 2021 and investigates the influence that its size has on the financial sustainability of Palestine's public budget.Design/methodology/approachThe researchers employed the multi-indicator multi-causes (MIMIC) model to estimate the size of the shadow economy and investigate its effect on the financial sustainability of the public budget. Economic factors such as direct taxes, indirect taxes, government welfare, government spending and unemployment were considered causal variables, while indicators of financial sustainability included budget deficit, public debt and gross domestic product (GDP). The shadow economy served as an intermediary variable.FindingsBased on the findings, the researchers recommend regulating and formalizing legitimate activities within the shadow economy. Additionally, they suggest promoting investment projects to reduce unemployment rates, lowering taxes on essential goods and consumer items and providing support to local producers in Palestine. These measures aim at addressing the challenges posed by the shadow economy and fostering economic stability.Originality/valueThe study reveals that the average size of the shadow economy in Palestine between 1998 and 2021 was 43.80%, fluctuating within the range of 39.92%–46.30%. It further establishes that an increase in direct and indirect taxes as well as unemployment contributes to the expansion of the shadow economy. Conversely, government welfare and spending exert a diminishing effect. Moreover, the study finds that the rise of the shadow economy correlates with an increase in public debt, budget deficit and GDP, indicating a negative impact on the financial sustainability of the public budget.

Abstract: PurposeThis paper empirically investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the UK money demand stability during the inter-war period (1920–1938). Both a narrow definition (M0) and a broad definition (M3) of money are investigated.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical investigation is conducted by employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration.FindingsResults presented indicate a stable demand for both definitions of money only when EPU is included as one of the determinants of demand function. The EPU imposes a negative effect on the demand for both definitions of money. The causality test results further indicate long- and short-term causality from the determinants (including EPU) to both forms of money demand.Practical implicationsSignificant presence of the economic uncertainty weakens the effects of the monetary policy on the economy.Originality/valueThis is a historical economics paper. Given the turmoil and uncertainty associated with the inter-war period, an empirical investigation of UK money demand is an interesting exercise. This is the first such paper.

Abstract: Purpose Oil price shocks greatly impact the global economy, but the effects vary among countries. While higher oil prices benefit oil-exporting countries, they harm the economic performance of oil-importing nations, and vice versa for lower oil prices. However, economic relations, such as trade, can mitigate the impacts of oil price shocks on both groups. In this paper, the authors aim at estimating the effects of oil price shocks on the major net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries while accounting for international trade. Design/methodology/approach The authors derive a reduced form of a macro model and set up a Panel VAR model to estimate the direct and indirect impacts of oil price shocks on economic growth. The sample includes data on macroeconomic variables from 30 oil-exporting and oil-importing countries that comprise more than 73 percent of the world's economy. The authors construct the spillover variables using bilateral trade matrix. To control for institutional and structural variations across the countries, they are divided into four groups of developed and developing oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Findings The results reveal that all oil-exporting countries have significantly benefited from oil price shocks, although trade has dampened the effect. The positive growth effect has been more pronounced in oil-exporting developing countries. The impact of oil price shocks on oil-importing countries has been negative with a one-year delay, but not statistically significant, and trade has only had a small effect. The effect has been more substantial in oil-importing developing countries. Research limitations/implications One of the limitations of this study is the focus on trade as the main spillover channel. Given the data availability, other channels such as foreign investment and financial markets can also be included in future studies. Practical implications Removing trade restrictions would help both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries to mitigate the negative impacts of the oil price shocks. However, the asymmetric oil-macroeconomy relationship across oil-exporting and oil-importing countries puts oil-exporting countries in a more vulnerable position as they cannot rely on trade with oil-importing countries to reduce the negative impacts of lower oil prices on their growth. Therefore, it is crucial for oil-exporting countries to reassess their oil-dependent development plans and invest their oil revenues in non-oil sectors to diversity their economies and prepare for a future with reduced dependence on oil. Social implications The recent technological advances, structural changes, and increasing energy efficiency suggest that major oil-importing countries will become less dependent on oil in near future. As a result, oil-exporting countries will also need to undergo structural changes in order to sustain their income level. These significant changes will have important social implications, particularly in the labor market, during the transition, for which preparation will be necessary. Originality/value While the literature on the total impact of oil price shocks on either oil-exporting or oil-importing countries is rich, studies on their spillover impacts are limited. Recent research has shown that trade and migration can affect the impact of oil price shock on the economy in federated countries such as Canada. However, the trade effect on oil price shocks in the international level, where countries are subject to different regulations/restrictions and institutional variations, remains scarce. By considering the trade relationship between different groups of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries, the authors aim to contribute to the literature of the global impacts of oil price shocks on the world economy.

Abstract: PurposeThis analysis examines the relationship between corruption and firm productivity in Vietnam.Design/methodology/approachThe authors apply the system generalized method of moments estimation approach on a panel dataset constructed from comprehensive enterprise surveys covering all the sectors over the 2011–2020 period.FindingsThe results confirm a non-linear relationship between corruption and firm productivity. Where corruption is severe, leaving corruption alone tends to benefit firm productivity because efforts to control corruption are likely to cause greater delays. In less corrupt provinces, corruption appears to harm firm productivity while efforts to control corruption provide significant productivity gains. This U-shaped relationship is confirmed for small firms and those in the private sector sub-samples. Intriguingly, this study reveals that the U-shaped relationship does not apply to micro, medium, large firms, state-owned firms and foreign-invested firms because corruption is found to have no significant impact on productivity among these sub-samples. Changes in regulations after 2014 toward promoting a transparent business environment are shown to foster the positive impact of lowering corruption on firm productivity.Research limitations/implicationsThis study suggests that lowering corruption is beneficial for firm productivity at the micro level. However, where corruption is severe, monitoring corruption alone is likely to cause adverse effects on productivity due to increased bureaucratic delays. Institutional reforms might play an important role in leveraging the effects of lowering corruption on productivity in highly corrupt areas.Originality/valueThis paper sheds new light on the relationship between corruption and firm productivity in the broad existing literature and especially in the limited number of studies for Vietnam.

Abstract: Purpose This paper explores whether data back the claim that imports of armaments are inherently bad for economic growth. Regardless of one's point of view, the production and trade of weaponry is a significant industry with serious economic implications that warrant investigation. The financial repercussions of military spending have been extensively studied, but the economic effects of arms importation remain unknown. Design/methodology/approach This study adopts a pooled mean group approach to investigate the nexus between arms imports, military expenditure and per capita GDP for a balanced panel of twenty-five of the top arms importers in the world from 2000 to 2021. Findings The authors find that arms imports and military spending negatively impact GDP per capita in the short run, but military spending is beneficial over the long run. The authors also used the Dumitrescu Hurlin Granger causality test, which revealed a unidirectional causation between per capita GDP and military expenditure, and a unidirectional causal relationship from military spending to arms imports. Research limitations/implications This paper is deficient in a few aspects: first, it looks at only those countries comprising the top 70% of arms imports. Second, it omits many political, technological and legal factors that impact arms imports and military expenditures. Originality/value This paper looks into the impact of defense spending and arms imports on economic growth for twenty-five nations with the highest share of arms imports in recent times. It is a significant addition to the literature as it resolves the debate of whether or not the military expenditure is wasteful and whether arms imports significantly harm the nation's economic growth.

Abstract: Purpose Following the COVID-19 outbreak, there are concerns whether economies are becoming farther from equality and competency. While this matters to every economy, it is more crucial for developing ones who already suffer from income inequalities and lack of competency. The purpose of this paper is to address this issue. Design/methodology/approach This study uses an administrative data from the Iran's Social Security Organization (ISSO) that provides insurance to workers entitled to the Labor Law of Iran. The data contain more than 7,000,000 workers. The authors assess heterogeneous impact of the first wave of the pandemic by firms' size and average payment. Findings The authors’ estimation results indicate that, following the initiation of the pandemic, the workers whose corresponding firms are smaller, overall, are more prone to the pandemic and are more likely to submit a request for unemployment benefits. However, the relation is neither homogeneous across sectors nor linear among micro-sized firms. Few sectors indicate a positive relationship between size and likelihood of request submission, including cultural activity, shoemaking and clothing sectors. Besides the size, the authors investigate whether pay grades could explain the probability of becoming unemployed after the pandemic. Results show that workers whose corresponding firms pay less are more likely to submit a request. This is robust within different sectors. Research limitations/implications The ISSO dataset is not a panel, so the authors cannot employ methods of causal inferences. The authors’ results should be seen as correlation; however, due to exogeneity and sharpness of the pandemic the result infers to some degree of causality. The data does not cover the informal sector, so the estimates are at lower boundary. Originality/value Administrative data on unemployment benefits during COVID-19 show that the pandemic interferes with competition by forcing low-paid workers and small firms to exit the market. This is an alarm for the competition in every economy, specially developing ones.

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this study is to provide new insights into the relationship between fiscal policy and total factor productivity (TFP) while accounting for several economic and econometric issues of the phenomenon like non-stationarity, fiscal feedback effects, persistence in productivity, country heterogeneity and unobserved global shocks and local spillovers affecting heterogeneously the countries in the sample. Design/methodology/approach The paper is empirical. It builds an Error Correction Model (ECM) specification within a dynamic heterogeneous framework with common correlated effects and models both reverse causality and feedback effects. Findings The results of this study highlight some new findings relative to the existing related literature. The outcomes suggest some relevant evidence at both the academic and policy levels: (1) the causal effects going from fiscal deficit/surplus to TFP are heterogeneous across countries; (2) the effects depend on the time horizon considered; (3) the long-run dynamics of TFP are positively impacted by improvements in fiscal budget, but only if the austerity measures do not exert slowdowns in aggregate growth. Originality/value The main originality of this study is methodological, with possible extensions to related phenomena. Relative to the existing literature, the gains of this study rely on the way econometric techniques, recently proposed in the literature, are adapted to the economic relationship of interest. The endogeneity due to the existence of reverse causality is modelled without implying relevant performance losses of the models. Moreover, this is the first article that questions whether the effects of fiscal budget on productivity depend on the impact of the former on aggregate output growth, thus emphasising the importance of the quality of fiscal adjustments.