Energy Transitions 

Abstract: This article provides an overview of Russian energy policy in the context of the global energy transition. Russia, ranking fourth in the world in primary energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, adheres to the strategy of “business as usual” and relies on fossil fuels. Decarbonization of the energy sector is not yet on the horizon: a skeptical attitude towards the problem of global climate change prevails among stakeholders. GDP energy intensity remains high, supported by relatively low energy prices and high cost of capital. The share of solar and wind energy in the energy balance is insignificant and is not expected to exceed 1% by 2040. The challenge for Russia in the coming years is to develop a new strategy for the development of its energy sector, which enters a zone of high turbulence—even in the absence of the influence of the climate change agenda—due to increasing global competition, growing technological isolation, and financial constraints.

Abstract: Policies to support the deployment of renewable energy technologies have been widely established for power generation, heating, cooling, and transportation. However, as renewable energy technologies have become increasingly cost-competitive and more widely deployed, policymakers have begun to focus their attention on the adaption of existing policies to reflect the rapidly changing economics of these technologies and the impacts they have may have on the energy systems in which they are deployed. Optimal renewable energy policies moving forward must, therefore, be context specific and tailored to the unique political, economic and social circumstances of the regional, national or sub-national energy systems in which they are to be applied. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a region where each member country has stated ambitions and targets for renewable energy but deployment to date has been minimal. Therefore, GCC ambitions must be translated into actions via defined policies and regulations that reflect regional context, and thus have the highest likelihood of achieving success. This paper investigates current trends in renewable energy policy with the aim of identifying those that will be the most effective and feasible to catalyze renewable energy in GCC countries. The findings show that utility-scale renewable energy auctions are a primary mode of stimulating renewable energy deployment internationally and this mechanism is optimally aligned with catalyzing renewable energy deployment in the GCC countries. However, further evolution of regionally tailored renewable energy policy will be required as auction mechanisms gain traction and renewable energy becomes increasingly prominent.

Abstract: The relationship between economic development and energy consumption has important policy and geopolitical implications intersecting with future energy demand, economic growth and climate change. All countries in the GCC share a common goal to transition to economies less reliant on oil and gas. As part of this transition diversification and energy efficiency strategies have become major strategic priorities. If successful, such policies are likely to significantly change the relationship between domestic energy consumption and GDP. To inform discussion on this topic, this paper assesses the relationship between energy consumption at a sector level and GDP in the GCC relative to a reference group of OECD countries. While there is variation within each grouping and across sectors, the clear result is that energy consumption and economic growth are strongly linked to all sectors in the GCC. This is in contrast to the OECD group where energy and GDP have decoupled. These results highlight both the scope for further improvement in energy efficiency and the need for deeper integration of energy-intensive industry and higher value-added activities and services. We suggest a greater focus on energy productivity—or how maximum value can be obtained from energy consumption—can help guide industrial policy and increase the profile of energy efficiency efforts across the GCC.

Abstract: The energy system is often treated as a self-contained system, disconnected from the broader socio-economic structures it is built upon. Understanding the enabling environment and structural elements will help to maximize the benefits of the transition and increase awareness of potential barriers and necessary adjustments along the way. IRENA has developed a methodology to measure the socio-economic footprint of energy transition roadmaps using the E3ME macro-econometric model, which evaluates the likely impacts in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), employment and human welfare. It is based on well-established historical databases and has a proven track record of policy applications. The presented socio-economic footprint analysis is based on the IRENA REmap energy transition roadmap 2018 that explores a higher deployment of low-carbon technologies, mostly renewable energy and energy efficiency. The results show that, with appropriate policies in place, reducing over 90% of the energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from the reference case via renewables and energy efficiency coupled with deep electrification of end-uses, results in consistently positive global GDP impacts across the period of analysis from 2018 to 2050. Across the world economy, the transition case leads to a relative increase of employment by 0.14% over the reference case throughout the analysed period from 2018 to 2050. In addition to GDP and employment growth, the energy transition can offer broader welfare gains. However, not all countries and regions around the world benefit equally, and just transition policies must be included to ensure all regions and communities are able to take advantage of the energy transition.