Abstract: This paper uses the Wald variant of the Granger direct causality test recently prescribed by Geweke, Meese, and Dent (1983) to assess the causal nature of the pairwise relationship between U.S. consumer and wholesale (producer) prices. For the sample period, January 1947 to December 1983, as well as for the two sample subperiods, January 1947 to June 1971 and May 1974 to December 1983, the test reveal that bidirectional causality, or feedback, exists between monthly observations on seasonally unadjusted consumer and wholesale price changes. The finding of bidirectional causality corroborates other empirical evidence suggesthing that a simultaneous equation approach represents the appropriate way to estimate a bivariate model that consists of consumer and wholesale prices.

Abstract: This paper examines the demand for broad money in West Germany, the Netherlands and France. We give an exposition of and apply the “general to specific” econometric modelling methodology which has been successful in modelling the demand for money in the U.K. We find stable short-run demand functions for each of the three countries examined, using a consistent data base previously published by other researchers. Each of the estimated short-run equations has a long-run or steady-state solution which is consistent with economic theory. For West Germany and the Netherlands we find long-run income elasticities of unity, which constrasts with the results of earlier studies.

Abstract: Rationality of expectations of individual agents have been shown to play a crucial role for macroeconomic model building and economic policy. Many applied studies therefore tried to test the implications of rationality by use of survey data. This paper differs from previous studies in that the data used are qualitative monthly survey responses by a large number of individual manufacturing firms to questions concerning their own expected and current business conditions. Results tend to reject the validity of the hypothesis of unbiasedness and efficiency. Due to the qualitative nature of the data, use is made of the log-linear probability model.

Abstract: Symmetry and homogeneity constraints are imposed stochastically in a system of cost share equations. This is done using both mixed information and hierarchical representations. The approaches are compared in a Monte Carlo study and using data from U.S. manufacturing.

Abstract: When an aggregate disequilibrium is the result of disequilibrium in several submarkets, the usual maximum likelihood estimation, which is based on the min of aggregate demand and supply, represents a misspecification. The present paper compares ML with several nonlinear least squares methods that are appropriate for this situation. Monte Carlo experiments suggest that ML is robust with respect to the misspecification and may be preferable to the nonlinear least suqares methods in some situations.

Abstract: Using monthly data for Ireland we test the hypothesis that the combined effects of currency substitution and capital mobility renders the demand for money function subject to instability over time. The empirical evidence supports the view that both “the” expected exchange rate change, giving rise to currency substitution, and the latter as a component, along with “the” foreign interest rate, of the gross yield on foreign currency-denominated assets, giving rise to capital mobility, are important determinants of the domestic demand for money. Their inclusion as arguments yields a money demand function which is more stable than if they are (incorrectly) excluded.

Abstract: This paper presents some empirical insight into the adjustment behaviour of individual firms that experience a change in demand. Section I briefly outlines recent theoretical approaches to explain the impact of demand variations on firms' price and output decisions. The next section gives a short description of the data used for the subsequent empirical analysis. In section III we explain our methodical procedure. Section IV presents a set of “response functions” that explicitly described the intensity and time pattern of firms' responses with prices, output, and order backlogs to variations of demand. Finally we comment on the limits of the study and summarize the main conclusions we derive from the empirical results.

Abstract: The analysis of inflation expectations is extended by distinguishing between short-term and long-term expectations using data from financial markets. The term structure of inflation expectation is explicitly considered. The adaptive expectations hypothesis obtains strong support from the data, while the Frenkel hypothesis can clearly be rejected. This result is clearly at variance with those obtained in Lahiri (1981).

Abstract: In Canada economies of scale in credit unions come not only from large single office arrangements but from external economies realized from belonging to central provincial credit unions. Making use of aggregate provincial time series and cross-sectional data, this study begins by employing a sequential Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) test to select the most appropriate model. This procedure permits the isolation of economies of scale from technological change effects. For all provinces, economies of scale are discovered to be significantly different from 1, and for five of the eight provinces examined, technological change was statistically significant from zero. The larger the provincial organization, as illustrated by the Quebec caisses populaires, the higher we find estimates of returns to scale and technological change. An implication may be that both expansion and more centralization should be encouraged and that other provinces may be able to increase efficiency by imitating some of Quebec's operational and administrative practices.

Abstract: This paper discusses the estimates for post-war Swiss data of a simple time series regression model relating the investment ratio to the net-of-tax rate of return and a real activity variable. The results indicate that taxes exert a statistically significant but quantitatively small impact on investment while the ratio of the foreign to Swiss labor force turns out to be an important determinant of investment in Switzerland.

Abstract: The note refers to an earlier article in this journal by D. Friedrich on the connection of a Poisson distributed lag model with a system of differential-differences equations.

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to estimate the demand for deposits in Greece, using a constrained simultaneous equation system similar in principle to the Linear Expenditure System The procedure allows us to calculate both the wealth and interest rate elasticities of demand for the various types of deposits and to measure the relative risk associated with each category of deposits

Abstract: This paper analyzes, for the period 1975–1979, the announcement effect of the unanticipated Canadian administered Bank rate changes (the Bank rate is analogous to the discount rate in the U.S.) on the Canada-U.S. dollar spot exchange rate. Leading and/or lagged announcement effects are also investigated. By examining the behaviour of the residuals, on and surrounding the announced Bank rate changes, derived from an autoregressive equation of the daily changes (4:30 p.m. to noon the following day) in the logarithm of the spot $ Canadian/$ U.S. rate the evidence seems to indicate, on the average, a significant adjustment (appreciation of the Canadian dollar for Bank rate increases and depreciation for Bank rate decreases) of the exchange rate on the day of the effective unanticipated administered Bank rate changes regardless of the assumptions made with respect to the probability distribution of the residuals — whether it be normal, symmetric stable with a characteristic exponent of 1.8, or nonparametric.

Abstract: This paper focuses attention on the role of infrastructure (or social overhead capital) in a regional development strategy. A multidimensional typological analysis of regional development is presented by using some statistical techniques (cluster and scaling methods, e.g.) and a so-called quasi-production function. The empirical significance of the analysis is clarified by means of a case study for the Netherlands.

Abstract: This paper stresses the view that earnings differentials should be interpreted in the light of allocation in the labor market. A model is developed that acknowledges the difference between individual levels of characteristics and the levels of such characteristics required in the job. It is applied to data sets for the Netherlands, with education as the most important variable. Neither the individual's education nor the requirements of the job alone are sufficient to determine earnings: they should be considered jointly. The earnings function containing allocation thus proves superior to the function derived from either human capital theory or from segmented labor market theory.