TL;DR: Overall, foodborne diseases appear to cause more illnesses but fewer deaths than previously estimated.
Abstract: To better quantify the impact of foodborne diseases on health in the United States, we compiled and analyzed information from multiple surveillance systems and other sources. We estimate that foodborne diseases cause approximately 76 million illnesses, 325,000 hospitalizations, and 5,000 deaths in the United States each year. Known pathogens account for an estimated 14 million illnesses, 60,000 hospitalizations, and 1,800 deaths. Three pathogens, Salmonella, Listeria, and Toxoplasma, are responsible for 1,500 deaths each year, more than 75% of those caused by known pathogens, while unknown agents account for the remaining 62 million illnesses, 265,000 hospitalizations, and 3,200 deaths. Overall, foodborne diseases appear to cause more illnesses but fewer deaths than previously estimated.
TL;DR: The results of this study are consistent with those of previous studies in the United States, South America, Spain, and Mexico, and although in countries like Chile, disk diffusion is practical and reliable for most susceptibility testing, detecting low-level vancomycin resistance in enterocci is difficult without supplementary testing.
Abstract: correctly identified E. faecium and E. faecalis to the species level, most (4 of 5) did not correctly identify E. gallinarum (three misidentified it as E. casseliflavus and one as E. faecalis). The results of this study are consistent with those of previous studies in the United States (4,5), South America (6), Spain (7), and Mexico (8). Although in countries like Chile, disk diffusion is practical and reliable for most susceptibility testing, detecting low-level vancomycin resistance in enterocci is difficult without supplementary testing. In Chile, as in other countries, strategies should be implemented to improve detection of these strains, including improvement of phenotypical and genotypical methods for VRE detection and species identification. Documentation of proficiency in detecting VRE is important for improving laboratory performance, detecting clinical isolates, and accurate and reliable reporting to local, national, and international surveillance systems.
TL;DR: The role of these diseases in the global decline of amphibian populations is examined and hypotheses for the origins and impact of these panzootics are proposed.
Abstract: We review recent research on the pathology, ecology, and biogeography of two emerging infectious wildlife diseases, chytridiomycosis and ranaviral disease, in the context of host-parasite population biology. We examine the role of these diseases in the global decline of amphibian populations and propose hypotheses for the origins and impact of these panzootics. Finally, we discuss emerging infectious diseases as a global threat to wildlife populations.
TL;DR: Environmental factors, including human activities, that enhance population densities of vector mosquitoes (heavy rains followed by floods, irrigation, higher than usual temperature, or formation of ecologic niches that enable mass breeding of mosquitoes) could increase the incidence of West Nile fever.
Abstract: West Nile virus causes sporadic cases and outbreaks of human and equine disease in Europe (western Mediterranean and southern Russia in 1962-64, Belarus and Ukraine in the 1970s and 1980s, Romania in 1996-97, Czechland in 1997, and Italy in 1998). Environmental factors, including human activities, that enhance population densities of vector mosquitoes (heavy rains followed by floods, irrigation, higher than usual temperature, or formation of ecologic niches that enable mass breeding of mosquitoes) could increase the incidence of West Nile fever.
TL;DR: M Mishandling of raw poultry and consumption of undercooked poultry are the major risk factors for human campylobacteriosis, and efforts to prevent human illness are needed throughout each link in the food chain.
Abstract: Campylobacter jejuni is the most commonly reported bacterial cause of foodborne infection in the United States. Adding to the human and economic costs are chronic sequelae associated with C. jejuni infection—Guillian-Barre syndrome and reactive arthritis. In addition, an increasing proportion of human infections caused by C. jejuni are resistant to antimicrobial therapy. Mishandling of raw poultry and consumption of undercooked poultry are the major risk factors for human campylobacteriosis. Efforts to prevent human illness are needed throughout each link in the food chain.
TL;DR: The possible effects of the next influenza pandemic in the United States and the economic impact of vaccine-based interventions are estimated and a net savings to society is projected if persons in all age groups are vaccinated.
Abstract: We estimated the possible effects of the next influenza pandemic in the United States and analyzed the economic impact of vaccine-based interventions. Using death rates, hospitalization data, and outpatient visits, we estimated 89,000 to 207,000 deaths; 314,000 to 734,000 hospitalizations; 18 to 42 million outpatient visits; and 20 to 47 million additional illnesses. Patients at high risk (15% of the population) would account for approximately 84% of all deaths. The estimated economic impact would be US$71.3 to $166.5 billion, excluding disruptions to commerce and society. At $21 per vaccinee, we project a net savings to society if persons in all age groups are vaccinated. At $62 per vaccinee and at gross attack rates of 25%, we project net losses if persons not at high risk for complications are vaccinated. Vaccinating 60% of the population would generate the highest economic returns but may not be possible within the time required for vaccine effectiveness, especially if two doses of vaccine are required.
TL;DR: In developing countries, acquired bacterial resistance to antimicrobial agents is common in isolates from healthy persons and from persons with community-acquired infections, particularly regarding diarrheal and respiratory pathogens.
Abstract: In developing countries, acquired bacterial resistance to antimicrobial agents is common in isolates from healthy persons and from persons with community-acquired infections. Complex socioeconomic and behavioral factors associated with antibiotic resistance, particularly regarding diarrheal and respiratory pathogens, in developing tropical countries, include misuse of antibiotics by health professionals, unskilled practitioners, and laypersons; poor drug quality; unhygienic conditions accounting for spread of resistant bacteria; and inadequate surveillance.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide morphologic and molecular characterization of three parasites isolated from primates and names each isolate: Cyclospora cercopitheci sp.n.n for a species recovered from green monkeys, colobus monkeys, and C. papionis et al. n.
Abstract: In recent years, human cyclosporiasis has emerged as an important infection, with large outbreaks in the United States and Canada. Understanding the biology and epidemiology of Cyclospora has been difficult and slow and has been complicated by not knowing the pathogen s origins, animal reservoirs (if any), and relationship to other coccidian parasites. This report provides morphologic and molecular characterization of three parasites isolated from primates and names each isolate: Cyclospora cercopitheci sp.n. for a species recovered from green monkeys, C. colobi sp.n. for a parasite from colobus monkeys, and C. papionis sp.n. for a species infecting baboons. These species, plus C. cayetanensis, which infects humans, increase to four the recognized species of Cyclospora infecting primates. These four species group homogeneously as a single branch intermediate between avian and mammalian Eimeria. Results of our analysis contribute toward clarification of the taxonomic position of Cyclospora and its relationship to other coccidian parasites.
TL;DR: The results of the study indicate that reducing the incidence of methicillin-resistant and -sensitive nosocomial infections would reduce the societal costs of S. aureus infection.
Abstract: We modeled estimates of the incidence, deaths, and direct medical costs of Staphylococcus aureus infections in hospitalized patients in the New York City metropolitan area in 1995 by using hospital discharge data collected by the New York State Department of Health and standard sources for the costs of health care. We also examined the relative impact of methicillin-resistant versus -sensitive strains of S. aureus and of community-acquired versus nosocomial infections. S. aureus-associated hospitalizations resulted in approximately twice the length of stay, deaths, and medical costs of typical hospitalizations; methicillin-resistant and -sensitive infections had similar direct medical costs, but resistant infections caused more deaths (21% versus 8%). Community-acquired and nosocomial infections had similar death rates, but community-acquired infections appeared to have increased direct medical costs per patient ($35,300 versus $28,800). The results of our study indicate that reducing the incidence of methicillin-resistant and -sensitive nosocomial infections would reduce the societal costs of S. aureus infection.
TL;DR: Accumulating evidence now indicates that the use of the glycopeptide avoparcin as a growth promoter has created in food animals a major reservoir of Enterococcus faecium, which contains the high level glycopesptide resistance determinant vanA, located on the Tn1546 transposon.
Abstract: Supplementing animal feed with antimicrobial agents to enhance growth has been common practice for more than 30 years and is estimated to constitute more than half the total antimicrobial use worldwide. The potential public health consequences of this use have been debated; however, until recently, clear evidence of a health risk was not available. Accumulating evidence now indicates that the use of the glycopeptide avoparcin as a growth promoter has created in food animals a major reservoir of Enterococcus faecium, which contains the high level glycopeptide resistance determinant vanA, located on the Tn1546 transposon. Furthermore, glycopeptide-resistant strains, as well as resistance determinants, can be transmitted from animals to humans. Two antimicrobial classes expected to provide the future therapeutic options for treatment of infections with vancomycin-resistant enterococci have analogues among the growth promoters, and a huge animal reservoir of resistant E. faecium has already been created, posing a new public health problem.
TL;DR: Exposure site data for HPS cases in the Four Corners region suggests that environmental factors may indirectly increase the risk for Sin Nombre virus exposure and therefore may be of value in designing disease prevention campaigns.
Abstract: To investigate climatic, spatial, temporal, and environmental patterns associated with hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) cases in the Four Corners region, we collected exposure site data for HPS cases that occurred in 1993 to 1995. Cases clustered seasonally and temporally by biome type and geographic location, and exposure sites were most often found in pinyon-juniper woodlands, grasslands, and Great Basin desert scrub lands, at elevations of 1,800 m to 2,500 m. Environmental factors (e.g., the dramatic increase in precipitation associated with the 1992 to 1993 El Nino) may indirectly increase the risk for Sin Nombre virus exposure and therefore may be of value in designing disease prevention campaigns.
TL;DR: Using DNA sequencing and phylogenetic analysis, the authors identified four distinct Cryptosporidium genotypes in HIV-infected patients: genotype 1 (human), genotype 2 (bovine) CryptoSporidium parvum, a genotype identical to C. felis, and one identical to a Cryptospora sp. isolate from a dog.
Abstract: Using DNA sequencing and phylogenetic analysis, we identified four distinct Cryptosporidium genotypes in HIV-infected patients: genotype 1 (human), genotype 2 (bovine) Cryptosporidium parvum, a genotype identical to C. felis, and one identical to a Cryptosporidium sp. isolate from a dog. This is the first identification of human infection with the latter two genotypes.
TL;DR: The development and use of the 5' emm variable region sequencing (emm typing) in relation to the existing serologic typing system and dissemination of new approaches to typing of GAS to the international streptococcal community are discussed.
Abstract: This report discusses the following issues related to typing of group A streptococci (GAS): The development and use of the 5' emm variable region sequencing (emm typing) in relation to the existing serologic typing system; the designation of emm types in relation to M types; a system for validation of new emm types; criteria for validation of provisional M types to new M-types; a list of reference type cultures for each of the M-type or emm-type strains of GAS; the results of the first culture exchange program for a quality control testing system among the national and World Health Organization collaborating centers for streptococci; and dissemination of new approaches to typing of GAS to the international streptococcal community.
TL;DR: The list of agents that could pose the greatest public health risk in the event of a bioterrorist attack is short; however, although short, the list includes agents that, if acquired and properly disseminated, could cause a difficult public health challenge.
Abstract: : The list of agents that could pose the greatest public health risk in the event of a bioterrorist attack is short. However, although short, the list includes agents that, if acquired and properly disseminated, could cause a difficult public health challenge in terms of our ability to limit the numbers of casualties and control the damage to our cities and nation.
TL;DR: Routine screening for iron loading could provide valuable information in epidemiologic, diagnostic, prophylactic, and therapeutic studies of emerging infectious diseases.
Abstract: Iron is an oxidant as well as a nutrient for invading microbial and neoplastic cells. Excessive iron in specific tissues and cells (iron loading) promotes development of infection, neoplasia, cardiomyopathy, arthropathy, and various endocrine and possibly neurodegenerative disorders. To contain and detoxify the metal, hosts have evolved an iron withholding defense system, but the system can be compromised by numerous factors. An array of behavioral, medical, and immunologic methods are in place or in development to strengthen iron withholding. Routine screening for iron loading could provide valuable information in epidemiologic, diagnostic, prophylactic, and therapeutic studies of emerging infectious diseases.
TL;DR: PlasModium falciparum infection became the dominant Plasmodium infection in the highest transmission areas in the 1997 rainy season and the vector Anopheles darlingi has also increased during this epidemic in Loreto.
Abstract: Epidemic malaria has rapidly emerged in Loreto Department, in the Peruvian Amazon region. Peru reports the second highest number of malaria cases in South America (after Brazil), most from Loreto. From 1992 to 1997, malaria increased 50-fold in Loreto but only fourfold in Peru. Plasmodium falciparum infection, which has increased at a faster rate than P. vivax infection in the last 3 years, became the dominant Plasmodium infection in the highest transmission areas in the 1997 rainy season. The vector Anopheles darlingi has also increased during this epidemic in Loreto. Moreover, chloroquine and pyrimethamine-sulfadoxine drug-resistant P. falciparum strains have emerged, which require development of efficacious focal drug treatment schemes.
TL;DR: Surveillance data for the period 1979 to 1996 is reviewed, and changes in the epidemiologic features of TSS are discussed.
Abstract: Menstrual toxic shock syndrome (TSS) emerged as a public health threat to women of reproductive age in 1979 80. We reviewed surveillance data for the period 1979 to 1996, when 5,296 cases were reported, and discuss changes in the epidemiologic features of TSS.
TL;DR: The role certain toxins have played in unraveling signal pathways in eukaryotic cells and the beneficial uses of toxins and toxoids are reviewed to illustrate the importance of the analysis of bacterial toxins to both basic and applied sciences.
Abstract: Many emerging and reemerging bacterial pathogens synthesize toxins that serve as primary virulence factors. We highlight seven bacterial toxins produced by well-established or newly emergent pathogenic microbes. These toxins, which affect eukaryotic cells by a variety of means, include Staphylococcus aureus alpha-toxin, Shiga toxin, cytotoxic necrotizing factor type 1, Escherichia coli heat-stable toxin, botulinum and tetanus neurotoxins, and S. aureus toxic-shock syndrome toxin. For each, we discuss the information available on its synthesis and structure, mode of action, and contribution to virulence. We also review the role certain toxins have played in unraveling signal pathways in eukaryotic cells and summarize the beneficial uses of toxins and toxoids. Our intent is to illustrate the importance of the analysis of bacterial toxins to both basic and applied sciences.
TL;DR: New estimates of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths due to foodborne diseases in the United States are reported by using data from multiple sources, including the newly established Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet).
Abstract: Address for correspondence: Paul S. Mead, Division of Bacterial and Mycotic Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Mail Stop A38, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA; fax: 404-639-2205; e-mail: pfm0@cdc.gov. More than 200 known diseases are transmitted through food (1). The causes of foodborne illness include viruses, bacteria, parasites, toxins, metals, and prions, and the symptoms of foodborne illness range from mild gastroenteritis to life-threatening neurologic, hepatic, and renal syndromes. In the United States, foodborne diseases have been estimated to cause 6 million to 81 million illnesses and up to 9,000 deaths each year (2-5). However, ongoing changes in the food supply, the identification of new foodborne diseases, and the availability of new surveillance data have made these figures obsolete. New, more accurate estimates are needed to guide prevention efforts and assess the effectiveness of food safety regulations. Surveillance of foodborne illness is complicated by several factors. The first is underreporting. Although foodborne illnesses can be severe or even fatal, milder cases are often not detected through routine surveillance. Second, many pathogens transmitted through food are also spread through water or from person to person, thus obscuring the role of foodborne transmission. Finally, some proportion of foodborne illness is caused by pathogens or agents that have not yet been identified and thus cannot be diagnosed. The importance of this final factor cannot be overstated. Many of the pathogens of greatest concern today (e.g., Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, Cyclospora cayetanensis) were not recognized as causes of foodborne illness just 20 years ago. In this article, we report new estimates of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths due to foodborne diseases in the United States. To ensure their validity, these estimates have been derived by using data from multiple sources, including the newly established Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet). The figures presented include estimates for specific known pathogens, as well as overall estimates for all causes of foodborne illness, known, unknown, infectious, and noninfectious.
TL;DR: An open-source database of all publicly known cases from 1900 to the present in which domestic or international criminals or terrorists sought to acquire or use chemical, biological, radiologic, or nuclear materials, the database contained 415 incidents, both domestic and international.
Abstract: Address for correspondence: Jonathan B. Tucker, Chemical and Biological Weapons Nonproliferation Project, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, 425 Van Buren Street, Monterey, CA 93940, USA; fax: 831-647-6534; e-mail: jtucker@miis.edu. Since the Japanese doomsday cult Aum Shinrikyo released sarin nerve gas on the Tokyo subway in March 1995, killing 12 people, terrorist incidents and hoaxes involving toxic or infectious agents have been on the rise. Before the late 1990s, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) typically investigated a dozen cases per year involving the acquisition or use of chemical, biological, radiologic, or nuclear materials; however, FBI opened 74 such investigations in 1997 and 181 in 1998 (1). Although 80% of these incidents have been hoaxes, some were unsuccessful attacks (2). The vulnerability of civilian populations to chemical, biological, radiologic, or nuclear terrorism has been widely discussed, but information on historical cases is anecdotal and often inaccurate (3). Without a realistic threat assessment based on solid empirical data, government policymakers lack the knowledge they need to design prudent and cost-effective programs for preventing or mitigating future incidents. Responding to this knowledge gap, the Chemical and Biological Weapons Nonproliferation Project at the Monterey Institutes Center for Nonproliferation Studies has compiled an open-source database of all publicly known cases from 1900 to the present in which domestic or international criminals or terrorists sought to acquire or use chemical, biological, radiologic, or nuclear materials. As of January 31, 1999, the database contained 415 incidents, both domestic and international. Each entry draws on multiple sources and includes a detailed description of the event and a list of citations. The project has conducted a preliminary analysis of the data to discern patterns over time in the frequency of such incidents, the underlying motives, and the choice of agent and target. The ultimate goal is to identify which types of individuals or groups are most likely to acquire and use toxic or infectious materials and for what purposes. Since the Monterey Database has been compiled from journalistic accounts and other unclassified sources, it may not be comprehensive or fully accurate. Incidents have been recorded only if they came to the attention of law enforcement or the news media, so the database does not include events that were not detected or whose existence remains secret. Despite these limitations, the information in the database indicates trends and patterns of behavior that may assist intelligence and law-enforcement personnel in focusing their monitoring efforts.
TL;DR: The 1997 Hong Kong outbreak of an avian influenzalike virus, with 18 proven human cases, many severe or fatal, highlighted the challenges of novel influenza viruses as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The 1997 Hong Kong outbreak of an avian influenzalike virus, with 18 proven human cases, many severe or fatal, highlighted the challenges of novel influenza viruses. Lessons from this episode can improve international and national planning for influenza pandemics in seven areas: expanded international commitment to first responses to pandemic threats; surveillance for influenza in key densely populated areas with large live-animal markets; new, economical diagnostic tests not based on eggs; contingency procedures for diagnostic work with highly pathogenic viruses where biocontainment laboratories do not exist; ability of health facilities in developing nations to communicate electronically, nationally and internationally; licenses for new vaccine production methods; and improved equity in supply of pharmaceutical products, as well as availability of basic health services, during a global influenza crisis. The Hong Kong epidemic also underscores the need for national committees and country-specific pandemic plans.
TL;DR: It is found that physicians and veterinarians hold significantly different views about the risks posed by certain infectious agents and species of animals and communicate very little about zoonotic issues; moreover, physicians believe that veterinarians should be involved in many aspects of zoonosis disease prevention, including patient education.
Abstract: We surveyed physicians and veterinarians in Wisconsin about the risk for and prevention of zoonotic diseases in immunocompromised persons. We found that physicians and veterinarians hold significantly different views about the risks posed by certain infectious agents and species of animals and communicate very little about zoonotic issues; moreover, physicians believe that veterinarians should be involved in many aspects of zoonotic disease prevention, including patient education.
TL;DR: It is found that fecal material may alter the Ct values needed to disinfect swimming pools or other recreational water for Cryptosporidium parvum, and the effects of chlorine on oocyst viability are examined.
Abstract: We examined the effects of chlorine on oocyst viability, under the conditions of controlled pH and elevated calcium concentrations required for most community swimming pools. We found that fecal material may alter the Ct values (chlorine concentration in mg/L, multiplied by time in minutes) needed to disinfect swimming pools or other recreational water for Cryptosporidium parvum.
TL;DR: It is shown that the genetic relationships of hantaviruses in the Americas are complex, most likely as a result of the rapid radiation and speciation of New World sigmodontine rodents and occasional virus-host switching events.
Abstract: The 1993 outbreak of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in the southwestern United States was associated with Sin Nombre virus, a rodent-borne hantavirus; The virus' primary reservoir is the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus). Hantavirus-infected rodents were identified in various regions of North America. An extensive nucleotide sequence database of an 139 bp fragment amplified from virus M genomic segments was generated. Phylogenetic analysis confirmed that SNV-like hantaviruses are widely distributed in Peromyscus species rodents throughout North America. Classic SNV is the major cause of HPS in North America, but other Peromyscine-borne hantaviruses, e.g., New York and Monongahela viruses, are also associated with HPS cases. Although genetically diverse, SNV-like viruses have slowly coevolved with their rodent hosts. We show that the genetic relationships of hantaviruses in the Americas are complex, most likely as a result of the rapid radiation and speciation of New World sigmodontine rodents and occasional virus-host switching events.
TL;DR: A study in health-care facilities and among raspberry farm workers, as well as a case-control study, to assess risk factors for the cyclosporiasis outbreaks in Guatemala found infection was most common among children 1.5 to 9 years old and among persons with gastroenteritis.
Abstract: In 1996 and 1997, cyclosporiasis outbreaks in North America were linked to eating Guatemalan raspberries. We conducted a study in health-care facilities and among raspberry farm workers, as well as a case-control study, to assess risk factors for the disease in Guatemala. From April 6, 1997, to March 19, 1998, 126 (2.3%) of 5, 552 surveillance specimens tested positive for Cyclospora; prevalence peaked in June (6.7%). Infection was most common among children 1.5 to 9 years old and among persons with gastroenteritis. Among 182 raspberry farm workers and family members monitored from April 6 to May 29, six had Cyclospora infection. In the case-control analysis, 62 (91%) of 68 persons with Cyclospora infection reported drinking untreated water in the 2 weeks before illness, compared with 88 (73%) of 120 controls (odds ratio [OR] 3.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4, 10.8 by univariate analysis). Other risk factors included water source, type of sewage drainage, ownership of chickens or other fowl, and contact with soil (among children younger than 2 years).
TL;DR: The most frequently captured hantavirus antibody-positive rodents were Peromyscus boylii and P. truei, and they survived longer on trapping web sites than antibody-negative mice.
Abstract: For 35 months, we monitored hantavirus activity in rodent populations in central Arizona. The most frequently captured hantavirus antibody-positive rodents were Peromyscus boylii and P. truei. Antibody-positive P. boylii were more frequently male (84%), older, and heavier, and they survived longer on trapping web sites than antibody-negative mice. The number of antibody-positive P. boylii was greater during high population densities than during low densities, while antibody prevalence was greater during low population densities. Virus transmission and incidence rates, also related to population densities, varied by trapping site. The spatial distribution of antibody-positive P. boylii varied by population density and reflected the species preference for dense chaparral habitats. The focal ranges of antibody-positive P. boylii also demonstrated a patchy distribution of hantavirus.
TL;DR: Dermacentor nuttallii from Siberia, Rhipicephalus sanguineus from Crimea, and Rh.
Abstract: Dermacentor nuttallii from Siberia, Rhipicephalus sanguineus from Crimea, and Rh. pumilio from the Astrakhan region were infected with Rickettsia sibirica (12%), R. conorii (8%), and the Astrakhan fever agent (3%), respectively. Three new Rickettsiae of the R. massiliae genogroup were identified in ticks by 16S rDNA, gltA, and ompA sequencing.
TL;DR: Antimicrobial resistance patterns of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium of isolates from humans and cattle in the Pacific Northwest from 1982 through 1997 are compared.
Abstract: We compared antimicrobial resistance patterns of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium (ST) of isolates from humans (n = 715) and cattle (n = 378) in the Pacific Northwest from 1982 through 1997. The major changes in antimicrobial resistance can be attributed to the widespread clonal dissemination of multidrug-resistant definitive phage type 104 ST.
TL;DR: It took until 1989-1991 for government technical experts in the West to persuade the world and their own governments that these programs were real and of enormous potential importance to the security of the West, if not the whole world.
Abstract: The demise of the biological weapons capability of the United States in 1969 and the advent of the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention in 1972 caused governments in the West to go to sleep to the possibility of biological weapons development throughout the rest of the world, as technically knowledgeable workers were transferred and retired, intelligence desks were closed down, and budgets were cut. By 1979, despite the Sverdlovsk anthrax release, a senior British government policy official described any biological weapons threat as nebulous. President Nixons biological weapons disarmament declaration in 1969 had conveyed the impression that biological weapons were uncontrollable and that the U.S. program had not been successful in producing usable weapons (when in fact the opposite was true). Add to this the rise of truly intercontinental ballistic missile delivery of nuclear weapons, and the stage was set for what I have termed nuclear blindness and defined as the tunnel vision suffered by successive governments, brought on by the mistaken belief that it is only the size of the bang that matters. Throughout this period, both the former Soviet Union and Iraq conceived, albeit in different ways, their new biological weapons programs. It took until 1989-1991 for government technical experts in the West to persuade the world and their own governments that these programs were real and of enormous potential importance to the security of the West, if not the whole world. Too many times in the past we have failed to anticipate future developments; refused to think the unthinkable and expect the unexpected. Too many times we have been out maneuvered by those who take the time to think and plan and do not simply rely on reacting to events. We must learn to think like our potential adversaries if we are to avoid conflict or blunt an attack, because only superior thinking and planning (not just better technology) will enable us to survive biological warfare.