Showing papers in "Chance in 2003"
TL;DR: Lyman Frank Baum (I H56-1(19), according to Martin Gardner, was "America's greatest writer of children's fantasy."
Abstract: (2003) Who Wrote the 15th Book of Oz? An Application of Multivariate Analysis to Authorship Attribution CHANCE: Vol 16, No 2, pp 9-17
195 citations
TL;DR: Stylometry the statistical analysis of literary style does not seek to overturn traditional scholarship by literary experts and historians, rather it seeks to complement their work by providing an alternative means of investigating works of doubtful provenance.
Abstract: (2003). Who Was the Author? An Introduction to Stylometry. CHANCE: Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 5-8.
67 citations
TL;DR: A number of issues common to both statistical research and collaboration that impact the verification, understanding, and subsequent application of novel statistical procedures are discussed.
Abstract: i\\ lany recent results in statistical research are based on simulation or experiment-based procedures which have been facilitated by technological advances in computing (Beran 200 I), While mathematical theory is still very important, these computational techniques, including Monte-Carlo, i\\ larkov Chain Monte-Carlo, and rcsumpling methods, arc increasingly used to obtain results which sometimes are more relevant than those based upon low-order approximations to asymptotic theory, These simulation-based techniques can help to lill gaps in understanding theoretical and mathematical procedures as well as provide numerical approximations to computationally infeasible exact solutions, This article will discuss a number of issues common to both statistical research and collaboration that impact the verification, understanding, and subsequent application of novel statistical procedures, Complicated numerical algorithms must often he used even when we have sound theoretical results, Implementation of these procedures can be just as difficult as the construction of proofs, However, while publication of research papers is based on the verification or proper referencing of proofs for every theorem, there is a tendency to accept seemingly realistic computational results, as presented by figures and tables, without any proofof correctness. Yl't,these results an,' critical for justifying the proposed methods and represent
35 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a Cherry Picking in Nontraditional Authorship Attribution Studies is presented. But it does not address the problem of non-traditional authorship attribution in non-canonical documents.
Abstract: (2003). Cherry Picking in Nontraditional Authorship Attribution Studies. CHANCE: Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 26-32.
30 citations
TL;DR: There is little evidence to support the hypothesis that the 3-1-0 award system led to increased scoring, or that it led to fewer ties, and why the switch to system that should increase scoring is explained.
Abstract: Historically, say, prior to IYHO, soccer leagues awarded two points to the winning team in a match and zero points to the losing team. In the case of a tie, each team was awarded one point. The final standings for a league were based on the total number of points earned by each team during the season. Under that system, there was concern with the lack of goal scoring and with the proportion of games that end in a tie. In part, these outcomes result from the weaker team playing a very conservative or defensive strategy. '11) try to overcome these problcms, several important European leagues replaced the 2-1-0 award system with the 3-1-0 award system, in which the winning team was awarded three points instead of two. The 3-1-0 system is now common throughout the world, including the quadrennial World Cup competition. England was the pioneer in adopting the 3-1-0 award system. It was first used there in the II.)H I-H2 season. In the following years it was taken up in other countries. For 10different countries, we collected data from leading leagues that changed from the 2-1-0 award system to the 3-1-0 award system. Forexample, for England we collected data for the 17 seasons preceding II.)H I-H2 for the 2-1oaward system and the subsequent II.) seasons under the 3-1-0 award system. In the 10countries for the data collected the smallest number of games played under one of the two award systems was 1,230 while the largest number was 9,616. For each of the 10 countries, we calculated the average number of goals scored per game and the proportion of ties under the two award systems. The resu Its are given in the Table I. From the table we see that there is little evidence to support either the hypothesis that the 3-1-0award system led to increased scoring, or the hypothesis that it led to fewer ties. Half the countries' teams showed an Mexico's Cuauhtemoc Blanco, center, tries todribble between increase in scoring USA's Pablo Mastroeni, left,andCobi Jones during their 2002 after the change, WorldCupsecondroundsoccergameat the JeonjuWorld Cup but the others had stadium in Jeonju, South Korea, Monday June 17, 2002. The a decrease in scor. S' . f' h 1() USA won 2-0 to advance to the quarterfinals. mg. IX 0 t e had fewer ties, but only teams in Turkey the 3-1-0 award system did not have the and Italy showed noteworthy decreases. desired results and propose a new award Here we will explain why the switch to system that should increase scoring.
17 citations
TL;DR: The existing methodologies forgel analysis are mostly in the form of computer algorithms that in many cases have been implemented in software packages developed specifically for analyzing twodimensional gel images.
Abstract: mainly come from computer scientists. The existingmethodologies forgel analysis are mostly in the form of computer algorithms that in many cases have been implemented in software packages developed specificallyfor analyzing twodimensional gel images. Early examples ofautomated gelanalysistechniques can be found in Appel et al. (1991) and references therein. Figure I shows a typical image of a two-dimensional gel. Just by glancing at it, the reader can imagine how hard a task it is for any automated algorithm to accurately identify hundreds of protein spots among the various kinds of noise, and also to compare and match proteins over several gels when presented with multiple copies of gels 300
16 citations
TL;DR: This article explains how the solution to this game Yahtzee® has now been obtained and includes a few solution summaries, such as the expected score for a player making optimal decisions at each stage and the set of best decisions for the first round of the game.
Abstract: There are a total of 13different \"scoring groups\" in the game. In each tum a score must be recorded against one of these groups, even if this results in a zero score. Each scoring group may only According to the Hasbro website an incredible 100million people worldwide regularly play the dice game Yahtzee®. Hasbro sells over 50 million games a year.Clearly this is a very popular game! However, as far as I know, nobody has ever attempted to \"solve\" the game of Yahtzee®. By that I mean nobody has ever determined the best decision for each stage of the game. This article explains how the solution to this game has now been obtained. For the aficionados of the game I also include a few solution summaries, such as the expected score for a player making optimal decisions at each stage and the set of best decisions for the first round of the game. For the benefit of those who do not know the game, which must be veryfew if Hasbro is correct, here is a brief synopsis of how Yahtzee® is played. The game involves rolling five dice with the aim of obtaining favorable \"scoring combinations.\" In each tum a player is allowed a maximum of three rolls of the dice, although he/she may stop after the first or second roll. For the first rollof each tum the player must roll all five dice. For the second and third rolls the player maypick up some, none, or all of the dice and roll them again, keeping the others to one side. The combination of values obtained after the final roll makes up the player's score for the tum. The score is entered on a score sheet like that presented in Figure I.
16 citations
TL;DR: The published George Pickett letters became part of the canon of Civil War literature and provided unique and significant insight into the "heart of a soldier" in the ensuing decades.
Abstract: In 1913, laSalle Corbell Pickett published The Heart ofaSoldier: AsRevealed in the IntimateLettersofGenl. George E. Pickett, C.S.A. She told readers that these wartime missives from her famous long-deceased husband had \"lain locked away from the world, the lines fading upon the yellowed pages, their every word enshrined in the heart of the noble woman to whom they were written.\" She hoped that these letters would serve as \"inspiration\" to \"lives less glorious than that of him who penned them, of the courage they can instill into hearts less brave, that has led their owner to share them with the world.\" Although Mrs. Pickett had already published these letters in 1908 in McClure's magazine, the compiled volume of them was very successful. The book sold well nationally,so much so, that in 1928, the poet Arthur Crew Inman decided a new edited volume should be published. In his correspondence with his publisher, Inman felt that only the title needed to be changed and perhaps a couple of letters added. But he too maintained the value and validity of the correspondence. Almost everyone agreed that the letters provided unique and significant insight into the \"heart of a soldier.\" In the ensuing decades, the published George Pickett letters became part of the canon of Civil War literature. Numerous historians cited them, and excerpts appeared in anthologies and
14 citations
11 citations
TL;DR: Because of the unrivaled ability to separate simultaneously and rapidly up to 10,000 proteins, 2-D gel electrophoresis has emerged as a key technology in proteomics.
Abstract: Figure 1. Silver stainedTwo-Dimensional PAGE ofa mousebrainproteome.Theannotated proteinspotsare identified byPeptide Mass Fingerprint Analysis. N the complete genomes of several organisms have been sequenced, Proteomics, the characterization of the complete protein complement of a cell, tissue, or organism (a proteome), has moved to the forefront of \"life sciences.\" But, if the complete genetic code is known, why study the proteins? Proteins define the function of cells, tissues and even organisms. Every cell contains equivalent genes, but their expression differs. In addition, each gene can give rise to multiple proteins, either through alternative splicing or post-translational modifications. Posttranslational modifications produce variations of the same protein that have different reactivities. Moreover, the genetically predicted translation does not tell how proteins interact with other proteins, DNA, and metabolites; or how their three-dimensional (3-D) structure affects activity. This protein information helps us understand healthy versus diseased states and develop effective treatments for diseases. For these reasons, the field of proteomics is booming. The most widelyadopted strategy for identifying numerous proteins from a cell is to load the cellular material on to a two-dimensional (2-D) gel. In the first dimension, their isoelectric point (pI) separates proteins across a pH gradient. In the second dimension on the gel,proteins are separated mainly based upon their molecular size as they migrate across an electric field gradient. The gel is then stained in order for the proteins to become visible.The 2-D map in Figure I shows numerous proteins and their approximate molecular weight. Because of the unrivaled ability to separate simultaneously and rapidly up to 10,000 proteins, 2-D gel electrophoresis has emerged as a key technology in proteomics. Mass Spectrometry
7 citations
TL;DR: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that North Carolina was entitled to keep a new House seat that Utah claimed following the 2000 census, and challenged the technique that the Census Bureau had used to count hard-to-locate households as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Deputy Attorney General Ray Hintze, left, and Tom Lee, outside counsel for the state, remark on the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that North Carolina was entitled to keep a new House seat that Utah claimed following the 2000 censusThursday, June 20, 2002, in Salt LakeCity. North Carolina was in line for one new seat, its 13th. But Utah came within 857 people of gaining the seat, and challenged the technique that the Census Bureau had used to count hard-to-locate households. Bv constitutional and statutory mandate (see Hox I ),thl' ..H'i seats in the L'.S. l lousc of Hc-prcscntutivcs are rcapport ionl'd every I() years according to nell population ligures derived in the dt'Ct'lmial census. Sinn' (LJ..Hl,tht, states' representatives have Iwen apportioned 1>\\ the \"met hod of etlua I pro port ions\" (see I~<)\\ ]. l. ( Jur h
TL;DR: Cardiology, in particular, has made substantial progress in patient care through the use of such devices as prosthetic heart valves, ventricular assist devices, and most notably, coronary-artery stents.
Abstract: A medical device is an instrument, apparatus, implement, machine, contrivance, implant, in vitro reagent, or other similar related article that is intended for use in the diagnosis of disease or other conditions, or in the cure, mitigation, treatment or prevention of disease, or is intended to affect the structure of any part of the body (Food, Drug and Cosmetics Act 1997, Section 20 I). That is, a device is any medical item for use in humans that is not a drug nor a biologicalproduct. Afar from exhaustive list includes MRI machines, breast implants, surgical instruments, artificial hips, pacemakers, hearing aids, multiple dose inhalers, contact lenses, etc. Cardiology, in particular, has made substantial progress in patient care through the use of such devicesas prosthetic heart valves, ventricular assist devices, and most notably, coronary-artery stents. Stents are small metallic scaffolds used to enlarge segments of the coronary arteries that have narrowed because of plaque. How does a medical device get approved for use in the United States? The Food and DrugAdministration (FDA), the regulating body charged with assessing the safety and effectiveness of products, has established criteria for characterizing valid scientific evidence for approval. When assessing drugs, approval protocols have traditionally
TL;DR: Bobby Jones is the only golfer to win four major championships in one year, at age 28 in 1930, and Jack Nicklaus is the youngest player in 50 years to win the u.s. Amateur Golf tournament in 1960.
Abstract: \"('(III(iI)/J('fT)'('(H/\"u/lalli\",c(J11I, Robert lyre \"Bobby\" Jones Jr. greets Jack Nicklaus, 20, at the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association dinner in New York City on Jan. 26, 1960. Jones is the only golfer to win four major championships in one year, at age 28 in 1930, and Nicklaus is the youngest player in 50 years to win the u.s. Amateur Golf tournament. (AP Photo/Marty Zimmerman) JlA Game of Which I Am Not Familiar\
TL;DR: First came genomics, then proteomics, and now pioneers are looking ahead towards metabolomics, which goes beyond just listing the sequence of nucleic acids that determine a gene and seeks understanding of gene activity in specific tissues.
Abstract: First came genomics, then proteomics, and now pioneers are looking ahead towards metabolomics. These three successive frontiers in the study of systemwide biology are the result of breakthroughs in biotechnology, but it is statistics that turned data into knowledge, allowing progress to the next breakthrough. Genomics studies the action and expression of genes. The Human Genome Project is the most famous effort in this area, and it has provided a roadmap of the approximately 30,000 genes in human DNA. The other major line of work in genomics concerns microarray analysis. Microarrayanalysis goes beyond just listing the sequence of nucleic acids that determine a gene and seeks understanding of gene activity in specific tissues. Microarrays determine the activity levels of thousands of genes, and statistics links these levels with important medical conditions such as disease and treatment predictions. New technology of the 1990s was critical to the growth of genomics. Initial approaches for sequencing used DNA fragments with radioactive labels. It cost about $10 to determine a single base pair (the A, C, G, and T nucleic acids). Subsequent developments led to fluorescent tags at a cost of only about
TL;DR: Jacques Bertin is a French semiologist, trained in Paris, whose seminal work La Semiologie Craphique (1969) laid the groundwork for modern research in graphics, and still provides important lessons to all of those interested in the effective display of quantitative information.
Abstract: Jacques Bertin (1918) is a French semiologist , trained in Paris, whose seminal work La Semiologie Craphique (1969) laid the groundwork for modern research in graphics. More than 30 years after its publication, it still provides important lessons to all of those interested in the effective display of quantitative information. Until his retirement in 1984, he was the director of the Laboratoire Graphique in the Ecole des Hautcs Etudes en Sciences Sociales in Paris. Bertin, John 'lukcy, and Edward Tufte are, arguably, the key 20,h century contributors to the understanding of graphical display. Last week I received a note from Bertin along with a 20-page document with his byline, dated 2002, and entitled \"La Graphique.\" A footnote proclaims that it contains extracts from La Semiologie and his shorter work, La Graphique et la traitement graphique de /'information, but that some aspects are new. His cover note said (in its entirety),
TL;DR: Thl' I)hl'nl lI111'IH)Jl ofgradl' inllat ion has rlTl'nl k gaml'lTd grl'at aucut ion in the POI)[II,;r nudiu.uison to tlumuch mor« serious elfel'l s that clisparit ics in grading pr.ut icl's havl' on student course selections.
Abstract: Thl' I)hl'nl lI111'IH)Jl ofgradl' inllat ion has rlTl'nl k gaml'lTd grl'at aucut ion in the POI)[II,;r nudiu. But tlu: l'ffl'l'ls of gradl' inflation. II hilc potentially quite sl'rious, pail' in comp.uison to tlumuch mor« serious elfel'l s that clisparit ics in grading pr.ut icl's havl' on student course selections. Such disparities cause studl'nls 10 lake courses on the hdsis of l'vplTted gradl's ruthe-r than l'\\I1l'l'led k
TL;DR: In his column, Rudolph Penner offers some commentary on the budget for fiscal year 2004 based on the information available at the time of writing (the Bush administration's budget request to Congress); it is unknown how final appropriations will match the initial request.
Abstract: Column Editors' Note: Our column this issue is by Rudolph Penner, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute. The questions we posed to Dr. Penner were: what role does statistical analysis now play in the legislative process? How much weight is given to statistical analysis?What role does modeling play and is any attention given to model validation. Are confidence intervals used or do point estimates drive debate? What could statisticians do to playa larger role in the legislative process? As a former director of the Congressional Budget Office, Dr. Penner has veryvaluable insight into these questions. The Congressional Budget Office is asked to inform Congress by providing predictions of the costs and other consequences of various policy initiatives through combining information from disparate sources. For example, microsimulation models are used to predict the budget implications of changes to welfare programs and what groups would be the "winners" and the "losers." Dr. Penner's views presented here are illuminating, and we hope to have future columns that revisit this general discussion. In his column, Dr. Penner offers some commentary on the budget for fiscal year 2004 based on the information available at the time of writing (the Bush administration's budget request to Congress). At press time, the two houses of Congress were working to reconcile divergent appropriations totals for statistical agencies such as the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis; it is unknown how final appropriations will match the initial request.
TL;DR: An informal survey of statisticians in literature found that many writers express a fascination with probability, randomness, and chance, but prefer to use hackers, computer scientists, and mathematicians rather than statisticians as characters in their novels and short stories.
Abstract: (2003). Math Chaps and other Oddities: Statisticians in Literature. CHANCE: Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 33-37.
TL;DR: In the case of the 2000 presidential election, Finkelstein and Levin this paper argued that the decision of the Florida Supreme Court was wrong, because based on the evidence available at the time the court made its decision, the probability that Gore would have won the election after a recount was negligible.
Abstract: Two critical legal decisions determined the outcome of the 2000 presidential election in Florida. First, the Florida Supreme Court ordered a statewide recount. Then, the U.S. Supreme Court overruled this decision and effectively ended the contest in favor of George Bush. Finkelstein and Levin (2003) present cogent probabilistic arguments why both these decisions were wrong. In particular, they argue that the decision of the Florida Supreme Court was wrong, because based on the evidence available at the time the court made its decision, the probability that Gore would have won the election after a recount was negligible. Critical to this judgement was the calculation that, if in each county the distribution of \"recoverable undervotes\" (those that were not counted under the original vote, but would have been included in a recount) matched the original distribution of votes in that county, then overall Bush could have been expected to increase his lead, to the point where the expected value of Bush's plurality over Gore was more than eight times the standard deviation of the change in plurality during the recount. Their discussion includes a number of possible sources of bias. One such source of bias is that some subgroup of the population, such as blacks, might have been disproportionally represented among the undervotes, when they might otherwise have been expected to vote in the majority for Gore. Indeed, Finkelstein and Levin cite a New York Times study that black precincts had three times as many rejected ballots as white precincts, which might be thought to support such a contention. Even this study is for black precincts rather than individual black voters, and \"rejected ballots\" may not equate to \"recoverable undervotes\", but it suggests an alternative method of calculation, which leads to a reassessment of the expected plurality after a recount. Under some reasonable assumptions about the proportion of black voters who supported Gore and the proportion of black voters who were recoverable undervotes, the recount could well have gone in favor of Gore. The assumptions of my analysis are as follows: 1.Among all the undervotes in each county, 26% are recoverable in punched card counties, 5% in counties that used any other method of voting. This is the same assumption as used by Finkelstein and Levin, and results in an estimated 10073.6 recoverable undervotes across the whole state. 2. The expected proportion of black recoverable undervotes who voted for Gore in a given county equals the proportion of black recorded votes for Gore in that county. The
TL;DR: In the United States the only naturally occurring marsupial, or pouched mammal, is the possum; in Australia, however, marsupials species abound and are the dominant native mammals.
Abstract: In the United States the only naturally occurring marsupial, or pouched mammal, is the possum. In Australia, however, marsupial species abound and are the dominant native mammals. The best known Australian marsupials in North America are koalas and kangaroos and, thanks to Warner Brothers. the tasmanian devil. Yes, the Tasmanian Devil really exists; it is relatively common in the Australian island state of Tasmania. It earns its odd name from its fearsome teeth and the unnerving noise it makes when disturbed a cross between a whistle and a growl. However, the marsupial that many Australians know best is the possum. Possums have adapted extraordinarily well to the urban Australian lifestyle, and from some viewpoints are Australia's answer to North America's raccoons. They are nocturnal, they spend much of their lives in trees, and the common species of brushtail possum can survive quite happily on a diet of vegetable scraps. Many Australians regard them as pests; there are companies that specialize in removing possums from the roof spaces of houses, where they enjoy warmth and protection, and returning them to their native environment. So, we Australians tend to think we know most things that arc important about possums. We live with them in
TL;DR: Three specific applications are illustrated to illustrate an alternative approach built on the development of application-specific software built from freely available sets of both C;IS and statistical software components.
Abstract: (:eographic information systems (( :ISs) provide a collection of software tools for managing, linking, and displaying spatially-referenced data but often offer limited options in the wav of statistical or spatial statistical analysis. Statistical software packages ollcr a wide range of analytical techniques, but lillie in the way of spatial data management. querying, linking, and analytical methods for spatial data analysis. While recent development of add-on modules or stand-alone packages offers some interconnection \\wtwlTn the two worlds, emphasis seems to focus on adding the techniques of one set of software [0 the other. Both CIS and stat istical packages are large software environments providing tools for a wide spec! rum of tasks, of which any single application is likely to use onlv a subset. In contrast to a strategy of making big packages bigger. we usc three specific applications to illustrate an alternative approach built on the development of application-specific software built from freely available sets of both C;IS and statistical software components, The goal of developing such
TL;DR: On April 21.
Abstract: On April 21. 2003. The New York Times published an editorial. \"Everglades in peril,\" urging Florida governor Jeh Bush to veto and senior figures in the Bush administration to speak out against an Everglades restoration-related bill sponsored by norida State Ikpresentative Joseph Spratt. The billwas signed into law bv Covernor Bush on Mav 20, In the cditorial, two numbers were polarized as pro (scicntilicl and con (unscientific) the Everglades restoration effort. An underlying question of the editorial and the bill is whether to set the water quality standard for total phosphorus (a key pollutant to the Everglades) at )0 or ) '; parts per billion (ppb or pg/U, While the Everglades restoration is a highly sensitive political issue, statistical models rather than politics led to the disparate numhers. The Florida Everglades is one of the largest freshwater wetlands in the world, One hundred years ago. the Everglades was nearly one million hectares (approximately 2. '; million acres) covering almost the entire area south of Lake Okccchobec, The region was mostly undisturbed bv humans until the )940s, when a small portion of the land was drained for agriculture and settlement. Then, in )94R, the federal \"Central and Southern Florida Project for Flood Control and Other Purposes\" was enacted. leading to toduvs large scale system of canals,
TL;DR: This work focuses on presenting numerical and graphical statistical methods that help overcome the difficulties in analyzing large proteomic data sets and demonstrates the methods it proposes.
Abstract: Figure 1. Heat map of data from Petricoin et al. Spectra from sera of 91 normal samples areabove the line, and thosefor162 ovarian cancer patients arebelow. The ovarian cancer data set of Petricoin et al. (2002) highlights common features of proteomic data sets, huge amounts of data with many outliers and perhaps missing observations. The goals of proteomic analysis are many, but here we focus on presenting numerical and graphical statistical methods that help overcome these data problems, so that we can discover protein signatures that discriminate cancerous from noncancerous cells.The 3.8 milliondata points were collected from a Ciphergen SELDI system (see Thiele, this issue) and comprise the relative intensities of small proteins and fragments at 15,154 measured mass-to-charge ratio (m/z) values ranging from just above zero to 20,000 Daltons. There are 253 total serum specimens, made up of 91 without ovarian cancer and 162 with ovarian cancer. Although some concerns have been raised about the data (Baggerly, et al. 2003), it highlights the difficulties in analyzing large proteomic data sets and demonstrates the methods we propose.
TL;DR: Minard's Napoleon plot is known as the Playfair of France as mentioned in this paper, and has been used extensively in the last 20 years to depict the march of Napoleon's troops on Russia.
Abstract: Charles Joseph Minard (1781-1870) was a French civilengineer turned economic geographer-cartographer whose legacy violates Marc Antony's funeral oration for Julius Caesar. Minard is known today principally because of a graph he drew of Napoleon's march on Moscow that was published in the year before his death. Because Minard's work was so much broader than that one graph, the mathematician Howard Gray Funkhouser (1898-1984), in his 1937 history of graphical methods, dubbed Minard \"the Playfair of France.\" Minard's Napoleon graph has enjoyed great popularity in the last 20 years and has been reproduced in a number of books (see reference list) and has become a wonderful wall poster (available from Graphics Press, Box 430, Cheshire, CT 06410). But it is not Minard's only graphical legacy. Cartographers call the format of the Napoleon plot a flow map, which was not original with Minard. Henry Drury Harness produced thematic maps in 1837 that showed the flow of people and freight in Ireland. But Harness's maps seemed to have had little impact, perhaps because, as worthy a topic as rail traffic is, it does not evoke the same feelings as a chart showing the death of 400,000 men. In graphics, both form and content matter, a lesson that Minard apparently did not grasp immediately, either. Minard began his study of civil engineering at the Ecole Polytechnique when he was sixteen. He further studied at the Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees, a school that trained the engineers responsible for building arid maintaining France's roads, canals, railways, and port facilities. He eventually became superintendent of that school and later
TL;DR: I was amazed when a collection of college football bowls, called the Bowl Championship Series, formed an alliance to select eight teams to play in the four bowls of the BCS, a methodology to select the top two teams in the country to play for the "national championship."
Abstract: Computer. It's such a simple word and a simple machine that does only as it's told. Despite this, the word evokes verystrange responses. Invariably,when I am explaining an application of statistics in sports, people arc very interested. They ask many questions, and some even ask, \"How did you do it?\" Depending on the audience, I explain various aspects of my model: what's included, what assumptions are made, and the data available, trying to present the model without sounding like a nerd. After a few sentences they ask, \"Did you usc a computer?\" When I begrudgingly say,\"yes,\" there are two parts to the reaction. The first is instant credibility-it must be right if I used a computer! The second is dismay-after all, what does a computer know about sports? Because of this reaction I was amazed when a collection of college football bowls, called the Bowl Championship Series, formed an alliance to select eight teams to play in the four bowls of the BCS. They designed a methodology to select the top two teams in the country to play for the \"national championship.\" The BCS standings are determined by four categories, one of which is the computer ratings. Seven different computer rating techniques are used to rank all college football teams. The participants in the national championship game in college football are in part determined by statistical ranking algorithms. The BCS standings started in 1999. Changes have been made each year to the algorithm, but the general framework has remained the same. All Division I (highest level) college football teams arc scored in four categories and their scores are summed to form their BCS score (lower better). The four scores are: the average ranking in two opinion polls (coaches and football writers), a trimmed-mean (excluding highest and lowest) of their computer rankings, a rank of strength of schedule divided by 25, and the number of losses. The BCS score is