Abstract: Reducing tax evasion is a priority for many governments. A growing literature argues that verifying taxpayer reports against third-party information is critical for tax collection. However, effectiveness can be limited when tax authorities face constraints to credible enforcement and taxpayers make offsetting adjustments on other margins. We exploit a policy intervention in which Ecuadorian firms were notified about detected revenue discrepancies. Most firms simply failed to respond. Firms that responded increased reported revenue, matching the discrepancy amount when provided. However, they also increased reported costs by 96 cents per dollar of revenue adjustment, resulting in minor increases in tax collection. (JEL D22, H25, H26, O23)

Abstract: We study the impact of an innovative program in the Indian state of Bihar that aimed to reduce the gender gap in secondary school enrollment by providing girls who continued to secondary school with a bicycle that would improve access to school. Using data from a large representative household survey, we employ a triple difference approach (using boys and the neighboring state of Jharkhand as comparison groups) and find that being in a cohort that was exposed to the Cycle program increased girls' age-appropriate enrollment in secondary school by 32 percent and reduced the corresponding gender gap by 40 percent. We also find an 18 percent increase in the number of girls who appear for the high-stakes secondary school certificate exam, and a 12 percent increase in the number of girls who pass it. Parametric and non-parametric decompositions of the triple- difference estimate as a function of distance to the nearest secondary school show that the increases in enrollment mostly took place in villages that were further away from a secondary school, suggesting that the mechanism of impact was the reduction in the time and safety cost of school attendance made possible by the bicycle. We also find that the Cycle program was much more cost effective at increasing girls' secondary school enrollment than comparable conditional cash transfer programs in South Asia.

Abstract: This brief summarizes the updates from the 2014 paper entitled, Women's Empowerment in Action: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial in Africa, conducted between between June and September 2008 in Uganda. The study observed how women in developing countries are disempowered relative to their contemporaries in developed countries. High youth unemployment and early marriage and childbearing interact to limit human capital investment and enforce dependence on men. In this paper, we evaluate an attempt to jump-start adolescent women’s empowerment in the world’s second youngest country: Uganda. In this two-pronged intervention, adolescent girls are simultaneously provided vocational training and information on sex, reproduction, and marriage. Relative to adolescents in control communities, after two years the intervention raises the likelihood that girls engage in income generating activities by 72 percent (mainly driven by increased participation in self-employment) and raises their monthly consumption expenditures by 41 percent. Teen pregnancy falls by 26 percent and early entry into marriage/cohabitation falls by 58 percent. Strikingly, the share of girls reporting sex against their will drops from 14 percent to almost half that level and preferred ages of marriage and childbearing both move forward. The findings indicate that women’s economic and social empowerment can be jump-started through the combined provision of vocational and life skills and is not necessarily held back by insurmountable constraints arising from binding social norms.

Abstract: Political favoritism affects the allocation of government resources, but is it consequential for growth? Using a close election regression discontinuity design and data from India, we measure the local economic impact of being represented by a politician in the ruling party. Favoritism leads to higher private sector employment, higher share prices of firms, and increased output as measured by night lights; the three effects are similar and economically substantive. Finally, we present evidence that politicians influence firms primarily through control over the implementation of regulation.

Abstract: How do income shocks affect international migration flows from poor countries? Income growth not only increases the opportunity cost of migration but also eases liquidity constraints. I develop a method to separate these countervailing individual effects and identify the overall income elasticity of migration. Using new administrative and census data from Indonesia, I find that positive agri- cultural income shocks increase labor emigration flows, particularly in villages with relatively more small landholders. However, in the most developed rural areas, persistent income shocks reduce emigration. Overall, the findings highlight the important role of wealth heterogeneity in shaping migration flows as incomes rise.

Abstract: I explore whether the absence of school sanitation infrastructure impedes educational attainment, particularly among pubescent-age girls, using a national Indian school latrine construction initiative and administrative school-level data. School latrine construction substantially increases enrollment of pubescent-age girls, though predominately when providing sex-specific latrines. Privacy and safety appear to matter sufficiently for pubescent-age girls that only sex-specific latrines reduce gender disparities. Any latrine substantially benefits younger girls and boys, who may be particularly vulnerable to sickness from uncontained waste. Academic test scores did not increase following latrine construction, however. Estimated increases in enrollment are similar across the substantial variation in Indian district characteristics.

Abstract: Experts may know more about the potential of projects in their area, but may also have preferences that impede their objectivity. This paper develops a framework for separately iden- tifying the eects of expertise and bias in project evaluation and applies it in the context of peer review at the National Institutes of Health (NIH). I nd that while reviewers favor applicants whose work is related to theirs, they are also more informed about the quality of those appli- cants. On net, the benets of expertise tend to dominate, indicating that policies designed to reduce the inuence of personal preferences may also reduce the quality of funding decisions.

Abstract: Existing evidence suggests that extra grant revenues lead to little improvements in public services in developing countries - but would governments spend tax revenues differently? This paper considers a program that invests in the tax capacity of Brazilian municipalities. Using variations in the timing of program uptake I find that it raises local tax revenues and that the increase in taxes is used to improve both the quantity and quality of municipal education infrastructure. In contrast increases in grants over which municipalities have the same discretion as over taxes have no impact on any measure of local public infrastructure. These results suggest that the way governments are financed matters: governments spend increases in tax revenues more towards expenditures that benefit citizens than increases in grant revenues.

Abstract: Migration contributes to the circulation of goods, knowledge, and ideas. Using community and individual-level data from Moldova, we show that the emigration wave that started in the late 1990s strongly affected electoral outcomes and political preferences in Moldova during the following decade, eventually contributing to the fall of the last Communist government in Europe. Our results are suggestive of information transmission and cultural diffusion channels. Identification relies on the quasiexperimental context and on the differential effects arising from the fact that emigration was directed both to more democratic Western Europe and to less democratic Russia.

Abstract: We study the short-run, causal effect of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) adoption on the employment and wage distribution, providing direct insight into how ICT alters the demand for work within the firm. We exploit a unique natural experiment generated by a generous tax allowance on ICT investments for small UK firms and find that the primary short-run effect of ICT is to complement non-routine congnitive-intensive work. At the same time, we find less extensive substitution for routine cognitive work, a result at odds with existing long-run extimates. We find no effect of ICT on manual work in the short run. Overall, ICT raises average labor productivity within the firm.

Abstract: We study patronage politics in authoritarian Vietnam, using an exhaustive panel of ranking officials from 2000 to 2010 to estimate their promotions’ impact on infrastructure in their hometowns of patrilineal ancestry. Native officials’ promotions lead to a broad range of hometown infrastructure improvement. Hometown favoritism is pervasive across all ranks, even among officials without budget authority, except among elected legislators. Favors are narrowly targeted toward small communes that have no political power, and are strengthened with bad local governance and strong local family values. The evidence suggests a likely motive of social preferences for hometown.

Abstract: We present evidence from a series of field experiments in college coaching/mentoring. We find large impacts on college attendance and persistence, but only in the treatments where we use an intensive boots-on-the-ground approach to helping students. Our treatments that provide financial incentives or information alone do not appear to be effective. For women, assignment to our mentoring treatment yields a 15 percentage point increase in the college-going rate while treatment on the treated estimates are 30 percentage points (against a control complier mean rate of 43 percent). We find much smaller treatment effects for men, and the difference in treatment effects across genders is partially explained by the differential in self-reported labor market opportunities. We do not find evidence that the treatment effect derives from simple behavioral mistakes, student disorganization, or a lack of easily obtained information. Instead our mentoring program appears to substitute for the potentially expensive and often missing ingredient of skilled parental or teacher time and encouragement.

Abstract: I estimate the dynamic eects of federal armative action regulation, exploiting variation in the timing of regulation and deregulation across work establishments. I nd that armative action sharply increases the black share of employees, with the share continuing to increase over time: ve years after an establishment is rst regulated, its black share of employees increased by

Abstract: We evaluate the long-term impacts of a randomized Colombian training and job placement program. Following the large short-term effects, we now find that the program effects persist, increasing formal participation and earnings contributions to social security and working in larger firms. By using a large administrative source we are also able to establish that the program improved both male and female labor market outcomes by a similar amount--a result that was not apparent with the smaller evaluation sample. The results point to a cost-effective approach to reducing informality and improving labor market outcomes in the long run.

Abstract: We explore how college reputation affects the "big sort," the process by which students choose colleges and find their first jobs. We incorporate a simple definition of college reputation—graduates' mean admission scores—into a competitive labor market model. This generates a clear prediction: if employers use reputation to set wages, then the introduction of a new measure of individual skill will decrease the return to reputation. Administrative data and a natural experiment from the country of Colombia confirm this. Finally, we show that college reputation is positively correlated with graduates' earnings growth, suggesting that reputation matters beyond signaling individual skill.

Abstract: We evaluate the longer run impact of a local accountability intervention in primary health care provision in Uganda. Short-run improvements in health care delivery and health outcomes remained in t ...

Abstract: This paper provides the first estimates of the long-run health eects of a universal infant health intervention. We examine the 1937 Danish home visiting program, which targeted all infants. Using administrative population data and exploiting variation in the timing of implementation across municipalities, we find that treated individuals are 5‐8 percent less likely to die in middle age (45‐57), experience fewer hospital nights and are less likely to be diagnosed with and die from cardiovascular disease. These results suggest that an improved nutrition and disease environment in infancy “programmed” individuals for lower predisposition to serious adult diseases.

Abstract: Agents operating in illegal markets cannot resort to the justice system to guarantee property rights or to seek protection from competitors’ improper behaviors. In these contexts, violence is used to enforce previous agreements and to fight for market share. This relationship plays a major role in the debate on the pernicious effects of the illegality of drug trade. This paper explores a singular episode of transition of a market from legal to illegal to provide a first piece of evidence on the causal effect of illegality on violence. Brazil has historically been the main world producer of mahogany (a tropical wood). Starting in the 1990s, policies restricting extraction and trade of mahogany, culminating with prohibition, were implemented. First, we present evidence that large scale mahogany trade persisted after prohibition, through misclassification of mahogany exports as “other tropical timber species.” Second, we document relative increases in violence after prohibition in: (i) states with higher share of total mahogany exports before prohibition; (ii) states with higher exports of “other tropical timber species” after prohibition; and (iii) municipalities within the area of natural occurrence of mahogany. We believe this is the first documented experience of increase in violence following the transition of a market from legal to illegal.

Abstract: The authors study the role of traditional norms in land allocation and human capital investment. The authors exploit a policy experiment in Ghana that increased the land that children from matrilineal groups can inherit from their fathers. Boys exposed to the reform received 0.9 less years of education - an effect driven by landed households, for whom the reform was binding. The authors find no effect for girls, whose inheritance was de facto unaffected. These patterns suggest that before the reform matrilineal groups invested more in education than they will if unconstrained, to substitute for land inheritance, underscoring the importance of cultural norms.

Abstract: Boarding schools substitute school to home, but little is known on the effects this substitution produces on students. We present results of an experiment in which seats in a boarding school for disadvantaged students were randomly allocated. Boarders enjoy better studying conditions than control students. However, they start outperforming control students in mathematics only two years after admission, and this effect mostly comes from strong students. Boarders initially experience lower levels of well-being but then adjust. This suggests that substituting school to home is disruptive: only strong students benefit from the school, once they have adapted to their new environment.

Abstract: Since 1988, every US state has established a database of criminal offenders’ DNA profiles. These databases have received widespread attention in the media and popular culture, but this paper provides the first rigorous analysis of their impact on crime. DNA databases are distinctive for two reasons: (1) They exhibit enormous returns to scale, and (2) they work mainly by increasing the probability that a criminal is punished rather than the severity of the punishment. I exploit the details and timing of state DNA database expansions in two ways, first to address the effects of DNA profiling on individuals’ subsequent criminal behavior and then to address the impacts on crime rates and arrest probabilities. I first show that profiled violent offenders are more likely to return to prison than similar, unprofiled offenders. This suggests that the higher probability of getting caught outweighs the deterrent effect of DNA profiling. I then show that larger DNA databases reduce crime rates, especially in categories where forensic evidence is likely to be collected at the scene—e.g., murder, rape, assault, and vehicle theft. The probability of arresting a suspect in new crimes falls as databases grow, likely due to selection effects. Back-of-the-envelope estimates of the marginal cost of preventing each crime suggest that DNA databases are much more cost-effective than other common law enforcement tools.

Abstract: Coworkers are increasingly diverse in their nationality and skill sets. This paper studies the effect of diversity on how workers are organized using data from a field experiment conducted...

Abstract: A by-product of the extension of mass education is the increase in the level of education of those eligible to political offices. This can have a profound impact on the effectiveness of local governments. In this paper, I examine the effects of a large school construction program in Indonesia on local governance and public good provision. The results show that the program led to important increases in the provision of public goods. Furthermore, I provide evidence consistent with the hypothesis that that the increase in the education of the village heads was one of the main mechanisms behind these results.

Abstract: We show that the provision of social information influences a high-stakes decision and this influence persists over time. In a field experiment involving thousands of admits to Teach For America, those told about the previous year's matriculation rate are more likely to accept a teaching job, complete training, start, and return a second year. To show robustness, we develop a simple theory that identifies subgroups where we expect larger treatment effects and find our effect is larger in those subgroups. That social information can have a powerful, persistent effect on high-stakes behavior broadens its relevance for policy and theory. (JEL D83, I21, J22, J45, L31, Z13)

Abstract: We study a 2004 program designed to motivate Chinese bureaucrats to reduce accidental deaths. Each province received a set of “death ceilings” that, if exceeded, would impede government officials' promotions. For each category of accidental deaths, we observe a sharp discontinuity in reported deaths at the ceiling, suggestive of manipulation. Provinces with safety incentives for municipal officials experienced larger declines in accidental deaths, suggesting complementarities between incentives at different levels of government. While realized accidental deaths predict the following year's ceiling, we observe no evidence that provinces manipulate deaths upward to avoid ratchet effects in the setting of death ceilings. (JEL D73, J28, J45, J81, O15, P26, P36)

Abstract: This study estimates the effect of improved bureaucrat quality on poverty alleviation by exploring a unique human capital reallocation policy in China—the College Graduate Village Officials (CGVOs) program. We find that introducing CGVOs into the village governance system improves the targeting and implementation of the central government's social assistance programs. CGVOs help eligible poor households understand and apply for relevant subsidies, thus increasing the number of pro-poor program beneficiaries. Further analysis suggests that CGVOs change bureaucrat quality, rather than quantity, of village governance, and their presence reduces elite capture of pro-poor programs.

Abstract: Instrumental variables (IV ) estimates show strong class-size effects in Southern Italy. But Italy's Mezzogiorno is distinguished by manipulation of standardized test scores as well as by economic disadvantage. IV estimates suggest small classes increase manipulation. We argue that score manipulation is a consequence of teacher shirking. IV estimates of a causal model for achievement as a function of class size and score manipulation show that class-size effects on measured achievement are driven entirely by the relationship between class size and manipulation. These results illustrate how consequential score manipulation can arise even in assessment systems with few accountability concerns. (JEL D82, H75, I21, I26, I28, J24, R23)

Abstract: We study the persuasive impacts of non-informative communication on the short-run beliefs and long-run behavior of individuals. We do so in the context of the Papal visit to Brazil in October 1991, in which persuasive messages related to fertility were salient in Papal speeches during the visit. We use individual’s exposure to such messages to measure how persuasion shifts: (i) short-run beliefs such as intentions to contracept; (ii) long-term fertility outcomes, such as the timing and total number of births. To measure the short run causal impact of persuasion, we exploit the fact the Brazil 1991 DHS was fielded in the weeks before, during, and after the Papal visit. We use this fortuitous timing to identify that persuasion significantly reduced individual intentions to contracept by more than 40 percent relative to previsit levels, and increased the frequency of unprotected sex by 30 percent. We measure the long-run causal impacts of persuasion on fertility outcomes using later DHS surveys to conduct an event study analysis on births in a five year window either side of the 1991 Papal visit. Estimating a hazard model of fertility, we find a significant change in births nine months post-visit, corresponding to a 1.6 percent increase in the aggregate birth cohort. Our final set of results examine the very long run impact of persuasion and document the impacts to be on the timing of births rather than on total fertility.

Abstract: A housing lottery in an Indian city provided winning slum dwellers the opportunity to move into improved housing on the city's periphery. Fourteen years later, winners report improved housing but no change in tenure security, family income, or human capital. Winners also report increased isolation from family and caste networks and reduced informal insurance. We observe significant program exit: 34 percent of winners never took up subsidized housing and 32 percent eventually exited. Our results suggest negligible long-run economic value of this expensive public program and point to the importance of considering social networks in housing programs for the poor. (JEL I38, O15, O18, R23, R31, R38, Z13)