Showing papers by "COMPAS published in 2015"
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the main features of this numerical weather prediction system in terms of data assimilation and forecast, and compare them with the operational AROME-France model for both autumn 2012 and winter 2013 SOPs.
Abstract: . During autumn 2012 and winter 2013, two special observation periods (SOPs) of the HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment (HyMeX) took place. For the preparatory studies and to support the instrument deployment during the field campaign, a dedicated version of the operational convective-scale Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME)-France model was developed: the AROME-WMED (West Mediterranean Sea) model. It covers the western Mediterranean basin with a 48 h forecast range. It provided real-time analyses and forecasts which were sent daily to the HyMeX operational centre to forecast high-precipitation events and to help decision makers on the deployment of meteorological instruments. This paper presents the main features of this numerical weather prediction system in terms of data assimilation and forecast. Some specific data of the HyMeX SOP were assimilated in real time. The forecast skill of AROME-WMED is then assessed with objective scores and compared to the operational AROME-France model, for both autumn 2012 (05 September to 06 November 2012) and winter 2013 (01 February to 15 March 2013) SOPs. The overall performance of AROME-WMED is good for the first HyMeX special observation period (SOP1) (i.e. mean 2 m temperature root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.7 °C and mean 2 m relative humidity RMSE of 10 % for the 0–30 h forecast ranges) and similar to those of AROME-France for the 0–30 h common forecast range (maximal absolute difference of 2 m temperature RMSE of 0.2 °C and 0.21 % for the 2 m relative humidity); conversely, for the 24–48 h forecast range it is less accurate (relative loss between 10 and 12 % in 2 m temperature and relative humidity RMSE, and equitable threat score (ETS) for 24 h accumulated rainfall), but it remains useful for scheduling observation deployment. The characteristics of parameters, such as precipitation, temperature or humidity, are illustrated by one heavy precipitation case study that occurred over the south of Spain.
63 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a composite index of the Meteo-France AROME high-resolution forecast model results from the quantitative comparison of forecast rainfall and wind gusts with observations from surface stations.
Abstract: One composite index of the Meteo-France AROME high-resolution forecast model results from the quantitative comparison of forecast rainfall and wind gusts with observations from surface stations. It is based on the regional Brier probability score in order to take into account some tolerance about the positions of storm structures. This approach is necessary to validate the added benefit of the AROME model compared with lower-resolution models. This index is used to monitor the continuous model improvements and the history of the last 4 years allows the impact of the successive upgrades of this operational model to be followed. The use of the normalization of models scores by persistence forecast scores enables most of the inter-annual variability to be removed.
19 citations
TL;DR: Sommaire et al. as mentioned in this paper provided an empirically based assessment of how government and non-government policy workers engage with one another in the policy process. But the extent of policy engagement may not be as broadly inclusive as the proponents of New Governance suggest.
Abstract: This article is based on select results taken from a survey of NGO and provincial government policy workers. The purpose is to provide an empirically based assessment of how government and non-government policy workers engage with one another in the policy process. The data suggest that policy co-construction and co-production are a significant feature of the process but there is some need for nuance. The data presented here indicate that the extent of policy engagement may not be as broadly inclusive as the proponents of New Governance suggest.
Sommaire
Le present article repose sur des resultats selectionnes a partir d'un sondage realise aupres d'elaborateurs de politiques d'ONG et des gouvernements provinciaux. Il vise a fournir une evaluation empirique de la maniere dont les elaborateurs de politiques gouvernementaux et non gouvernementaux interagissent au cours du processus d'elaboration de politiques. Les donnees laissent entendre que la co-conception et la coproduction sont des caracteristiques importantes du processus mais qu'il existe un certain besoin de nuance. Les donnees presentees ici indiquent que la portee de l'engagement politique n'est pas aussi inclusive que le laissent entendre les adeptes de la Nouvelle gouvernance.
18 citations
TL;DR: The FAP is an autosomal dominant cancer predisposition syndrome characterised by the progressive development of multiple colorectal adenomatous polyps and an increased incidence of coloreCTal carcinoma.
8 citations
TL;DR: This article found that greater exposure to the refugee shock resulted in Tanzanians having a lower likelihood of working outside the household as employees, however, employees more affected by the shock had a higher probability of being in professional occupations and being part of a pensions program.
Abstract: During the 1990s the Kagera region of Tanzania experienced a forced migration shock. A series of geographical barriers led to a higher concentration of forced migrants in some parts of the region relative to others, resulting in a natural experiment. Using panel data (pre and post forced migration shock), we find that greater exposure to the refugee shock resulted in Tanzanians having a lower likelihood of working outside the household as employees. However, employees more affected by the shock had a higher probability of being in professional occupations and being part of a pensions program.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyse migration as presenting a direct threat to sovereignty and generating costs and benefits that must be traded off, posing a "tragedy of commons" for national welfare states.
Abstract: Everyone is talking about immigration. The impacts of migration on the social, the economic and the political are perceived as multifarious and profoundly disruptive. The proportion of people that move internationally, approximately 3 per cent of the world’s population has long been stable but the meaning, significance and constitution of mobility have changed. The story is one of unparalleled movement and huge demographic change. This is analysed as presenting a direct threat to sovereignty and generating costs and benefits that must be traded off, posing a ‘tragedy of commons’, particularly in Europe, for national welfare states.