Abstract: This paper estimates the welfare effects of Brexit, focusing on trade and fiscal transfers. We use a standard quantitative general equilibrium trade model with many countries and sectors and trade in intermediates, as in Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2014). We simulate a range of counterfactuals reflecting alternative options for EU-UK relations following Brexit. Welfare losses for the average UK household are 1.3% if the UK remains in the EU's Single Market like Norway (a “soft Brexit”).Losses rise to 2.7% if the UK trades with the EU under World Trade Organization rules (a “hard Brexit”). A reduced form approach that captures the dynamic effects of Brexit on productivity more than riples these losses and implies a decline in average income per capita of between 6.3% and 9.4%, partly via falls in foreign investment. These negative effects are widely shared across the entire income distribution and are unlikely to be offset from new trade deals.

Abstract: This study addresses the concept of smart governance in the context of smart cities, with a focus on analyzing the phenomenon of smart collaboration. Relying on the existing collaboration and parti...

Abstract: A fundamental part of conducting cross-disciplinary web science research is having useful, high-quality datasets that provide value to studies across disciplines. In this paper, we introduce a large, hand-coded corpus of online harassment data. A team of researchers collaboratively developed a codebook using grounded theory and labeled 35,000 tweets. Our resulting dataset has roughly 15% positive harassment examples and 85% negative examples. This data is useful for training machine learning models, identifying textual and linguistic features of online harassment, and for studying the nature of harassing comments and the culture of trolling.

Abstract: High concentrations of people and economic activities in urban areas have strengthened the links between cities, health and the environment. Cities are not only responsible for environmental and health problems but also they hold the key for a greener economy and a sustainable future. Urban built environment is a policy field where appropriate policies and actions could yield significant human and ecological benefits. Among different elements of urban built environment, buildings deserve particular attention due to their large contribution to environmental and health problems. The concept of sustainable (green) building is a recent response to address the problems that stem from the building sector. However, the widespread implementation of the concept is hindered by significant challenges. This paper argues that manifestation of multiple benefits that sustainable buildings deliver could help overcome some of these challenges. The paper presents the extent to which green buildings could generate co-benefits, and underlines the opportunities and barriers to push green building agenda forward. The results indicate that green and sustainably renovated buildings could yield significant benefits in terms of energy and CO 2 reduction, cost savings, and improved health situation for building users. The case study buildings with the best two performances are found to achieve 33% and 26% reduction in energy use intensity, and 38% and 32% reduction in CO 2 emissions intensity in comparison to benchmark values. Reduction in energy consumption in the top two buildings corresponds to an energy cost saving of $ 1–1.5 Million per year per building. Furthermore, the top two buildings are found to provide improved healthy environment due to improved indoor and ambient air quality, better thermal comfort and more natural lighting indoors. Making more explicit the multiple benefits of sustainable buildings needs further consideration in this regard. We recommend that the public sector could take key actions to accelerate the number of green buildings including fiscal support, technical assistance and policy reforms.

Abstract: In 2010, a paper entitled "From Obscurity to Prominence in Minutes: Political Speech and Real-time search" won the Best Paper Prize of the WebSci'10 conference. Among its findings were the discovery and documentation of what was labeled a "Twitter bomb", an organized effort to spread misinformation about the democratic candidate Martha Coakley through anonymous Twitter accounts. In this paper, after summarizing the details of that event, we outline the recipe of how social networks are used to spread misinformation. One of the most important steps in such a recipe is the "infiltration" of a community of users who are already engaged in conversations about a topic, to use them as organic spreaders of misinformation in their extended subnetworks. Then, we take this misinformation spreading recipe and indicate how it was successfully used to spread fake news during the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. The main differences between the scenarios are the use of Facebook instead of Twitter, and the respective motivations (in 2010: political influence; in 2016: financial benefit through online advertising). After situating these events in the broader context of exploiting the Web, we seize this opportunity to address limitations of the reach of research findings and to start a conversation about how communities of researchers can in- crease their impact on real-world societal issues.

Abstract: Digital Twin models are computerized clones of physical assets that can be used for in-depth analysis. Industrial production lines tend to have multiple sensors to generate near real-time status information for production. Industrial Internet of Things datasets are difficult to analyze and infer valuable insights such as points of failure, estimated overhead. etc. In this paper we introduce a simple way of formalizing knowledge as digital twin models coming from sensors in industrial production lines. We present a way on to extract and infer knowledge from large scale production line data, and enhance manufacturing process management with reasoning capabilities, by introducing a semantic query mechanism. Our system primarily utilizes a graph-based query language equivalent to conjunctive queries and has been enriched with inference rules.

Abstract: One of the key debates in the literature on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and corporate social responsibility (CSR) in developing countries has to do with the role that local industrial distr...

Abstract: Purpose Throughout Macedonia, beekeeping is becoming popular regardless of ethnicity. Studying ethnicity, the purpose of this paper is to determine what beekeepers in Macedonia thought in their own words about their beekeeping entrepreneurship. The objective is to identify whether motivations of ethnic Albanian beekeepers in Macedonia were the same or different compared to those of ethnic Macedonians in the same country, and if different, how. Design/methodology/approach To accomplish this objective, in-depth interviews were conducted with 40 beekeepers in Macedonia. A total of 29 interviews were conducted face-to-face and the other 11 by phone. The first set of interviews took place between December 2016 and February 2017, followed by more interviews in June 2017. In total, 27 respondents said they were ethnic Albanians, and 13 identified themselves as ethnic Macedonians. Also, ten respondents were women. While eight were full-time beekeepers, 32 were part-time beekeepers. Findings The results indicated that beekeeping businesses play a significant role in the transition economy of Macedonia. Beekeeping provides additional earnings that support rural families and keeps them financially stable. The majority of both Albanians and Macedonians understood that beekeeping on a part-time job basis provided a needed supplement to their income. Some part-time beekeepers are also working as auto-mechanics, locksmiths, medical doctors, restaurant/cafeteria owners, and tailors. A few in the sample were retired from their jobs or full-time beekeepers. An important difference between ethnic Albanian beekeepers and ethnic Macedonians in Macedonia is that the majority of ethnic Albanian participants see beekeeping as following in “my father’s footsteps”, while most Macedonians were motivated by the perceived opportunity of having a good business. Research limitations/implications Limitations of the research are twofold. First, financial data of family beekeeping are not available, which would be useful in determining the contribution made to economic development. It is common, especially in transition economies such as the western Balkans, that financial results are very sensitive to their owners. Second, unavailable databases for beekeepers make any quantitative approach difficult, if not impossible, resulting in most research using the qualitative research approach. Originality/value This paper is one of the first to treat beekeeping as a form of artisan entrepreneurship, which also contributes to the understanding of family business. As in other countries, the important and operation of the family business among family members in Macedonia is passed from generation to generation. The results of this research revealed the value of networking, which was found to be very important to income. For beekeepers to develop, grow, and be branded in the community, networking is an important ingredient.

Abstract: This paper examines the role of human capital persistence in explaining long-term development. We exploit variation induced by a state-sponsored settlement policy that attracted a pool of immigrants with higher levels of schooling to particular regions of Brazil in the late 19th and early 20th century. We show that municipalities that received settlements experienced increases in schooling that persisted over time. One century after the policy, localities that received state-sponsored settlements had higher levels of schooling and income per capita. We provide evidence that long-run effects were driven by persistently higher supply and use of educational inputs and shifts in the structure of occupations towards skill-intensive sectors.

Abstract: Every day, millions of users reveal their interests on Facebook, which are then monetized via targeted advertisement marketing campaigns. In this paper, we explore the use of demographically rich Facebook Ads audience estimates for tracking non-communicable diseases around the world. Across 47 countries, we compute the audiences of marker interests, and evaluate their potential in tracking health conditions associated with tobacco use, obesity, and diabetes, compared to the performance of placebo interests. Despite its huge potential, we find that, for modeling prevalence of health conditions across countries, differences in these interest audiences are only weakly indicative of the corresponding prevalence rates. Within the countries, however, our approach provides interesting insights on trends of health awareness across demographic groups. Finally, we provide a temporal error analysis to expose the potential pitfalls of using Facebook's Marketing API as a black box.

Abstract: Zika virus infection was declared a public health emergency of international concern in February 2016 in response to the outbreak in Brazil and its suspected link with congenital anomalies. In this study, we use notification data and disease natural history parameters to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0) of Zika in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We also obtain estimates of R 0 of dengue from time series of dengue cases in the outbreaks registered in 2002 and 2012 in the city, when DENV-3 and DENV-4 serotypes, respectively, had just emerged. Our estimates of the basic reproduction number for Zika in Rio de Janeiro based on surveillance notifications (R 0 = 2·33, 95% CI: 1·97-2·97) were higher than those obtained for dengue in the city (year 2002: R 0 = 1·70 [1·50-2·02]; year 2012: R 0 = 1·25 [1·18-1·36]). Given the role of Aedes aegypti as vector of both the Zika and dengue viruses, we also derive R 0 of Zika as a function of both dengue reproduction number and entomological and epidemiological parameters for dengue and Zika. Using the dengue outbreaks from previous years allowed us to estimate the potential R 0 of Zika. Our estimates were closely in agreement with our first Zika's R 0 estimation from notification data. Hence, these results validate deriving the potential risk of Zika transmission in areas with recurring dengue outbreaks. Whether transmission routes other than vector-based can sustain a Zika epidemic still deserves attention, but our results suggest that the Zika outbreak in Rio de Janeiro emerged due to population susceptibility and ubiquitous presence of Ae. aegypti.

Abstract: Brand pages in social media are a great way to foster consumer gathering around a brand, but it can be challenging to keep fans engaged and coming back to see updated content. Brands with millions of fans on Facebook have seen organic reach fall below 2% of their base. In this article, we describe how the creation of virtual brand communities can help brand managers increase fan engagement. We suggest the steps, conditions, advantages, and limitations involved in nurturing a brand page as an online social gathering that assumes some of the characteristics of a virtual brand community. The results of our study show that a brand page can have some of the characteristics of a virtual brand community—topical information exchange, identity communication, and establishment and internalization of cultural norms. We also show the importance of having celebrities among fans in order to foster social interactions and legitimate social practices on brand pages.

Abstract: In the 1990s Latin American countries abandoned their policies of import-substituting industrialization carried out through fully-owned state enterprises (SOEs). They opened their economies to international competition and privatized their SOEs. We argue that this pragmatic adaptation did not necessarily constitute a fundamental change in policies, long followed by some Latin American countries, of state intervention in the pursuit of nationalistic objectives, but is instead a continuation of these policies by other means. Specifically, to safeguard their autonomy, some Latin American states have selected and nurtured domestic firms to become multinational enterprises (MNEs). They have kept – and obtained – equity stakes in these national MNEs to influence them and to keep them out of the hands of foreigners. These policies explain the timing of the rise of Multilatinas and their, usually partial, state ownership.

Abstract: Empirical research involving the analysis of Internet-based data raises a number of ethical challenges. One instance of this is the analysis of Twitter data, in particular when specific tweets are reproduced for the purposes of dissemination. Although Twitter is an open platform it is possible to question whether this provides a sufficient ethical justification to collect, analyse and reproduce tweets for the purposes of research or whether it is necessary to also undertake specific informed consent procedures. This paper reports on an ethics consultation that formed part of a wider research study and that aimed to identify best practice procedures for the publication of Twitter data in research findings. We focus largely on the UK context and draw on the outcomes of the consultation to highlight the range and depth of ethical issues that arise in this area. We can see Twitter as a case study for a wide number of data sources used in Web Science. This is a highly complex landscape in which questions crystallise around fundamental principles such as informed consent, anonymisation and the minimisation of harm. Furthermore, tensions exist between commercial, regulatory and academic practices, and there are also circumstances in which good ethical practice might compromise academic integrity. There is an absence of consensus in Web science and related fields over how to resolve these issues and we argue that constructive debate is necessary in order to take a proactive approach towards good practice.

Abstract: Interacting with images through social media has become widespread due to ubiquitous Internet access and multimedia enabled devices. Through images, users generally present their daily activities, preferences or interests. This study aims to identify the way and extent to which personality differences, measured using the Big Five model, are related to online image posting and liking. In two experiments, the larger consisting of ~1.5 million Twitter images both posted and liked by ~4,000 users, we extract interpretable semantic concepts using large-scale image content analysis and analyze differences specific of each personality trait. Predictive results show that image content can predict personality traits, and that there can be significant performance gain by fusing the signal from both posted and liked images.

Abstract: Purpose The objective of this study was to investigate gender differences in entrepreneurship development. Design/methodology/approach A quantitative study consisted of an on-line questionnaire administered to a random sample of 206 owner-manager CEOs across Bosnia & Herzegovina. Various statistical tools were utilised in the analysis. Findings Empirical results revealed significant differences in entrepreneurial performance between women and men. It was found that gender significantly affects entrepreneurial activities in firms with regards to innovativeness, proactiveness, and risk-taking. Overall, female respondents scored better in entrepreneurial dimensions than did males. Practical implications The state should support female entrepreneurship in the long term; aspirations exist, and this study’s results reveal this potential. Furthermore, we recommend that women take a part in entrepreneurship development – a key to economic development. Also, we suggest that education in entrepreneurship should be ...

Abstract: Airbnb, an online marketplace for accommodations, has experienced a staggering growth accompanied by intense debates and scattered regulations around the world. Current discourses, however, are largely focused on opinions rather than empirical evidences. Here, we aim to bridge this gap by presenting the first large-scale measurement study on Airbnb, using a crawled data set containing 2.3 million listings, 1.3 million hosts, and 19.3 million reviews. We measure several key characteristics at the heart of the ongoing debate and the sharing economy. Among others, we find that Airbnb has reached a global yet heterogeneous coverage. The majority of its listings across many countries are entire homes, suggesting that Airbnb is actually more like a rental marketplace rather than a spare-room sharing platform. Analysis on star-ratings reveals that there is a bias toward positive ratings, amplified by a bias toward using positive words in reviews. The extent of such bias is greater than Yelp reviews, which were already shown to exhibit a positive bias. We investigate a key issue - commercial hosts who own multiple listings on Airbnb - repeatedly discussed in the current debate. We find that their existence is prevalent, they are early movers towards joining Airbnb, and their listings are disproportionately entire homes and located in the US. Our work advances the current understanding of how Airbnb is being used and may serve as an independent and empirical reference to inform the debate.

Abstract: This paper introduces a new tail-risk measure based on the risk-neutral excess expected shortfall of a cross-section of stock returns. We propose a novel way to risk neutralize the returns without relying on option price information. Empirically, we illustrate our methodology by estimating a tail-risk measure over a long historical period based on a set of size and book-to-market portfolios. We find that a risk premium is associated with long-short strategies with portfolio sorts based on tail-risk sensitivities of individual securities. Our tail-risk index also provides meaningful information about future market returns and aggregate macroeconomic conditions. Results are robust to the cross-sectional information and other parameters selected to compute the tail-risk measure.

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this study is to develop models and analyse the influence of supply chain governance (SCG) and its conceptions (contractual, relational and transactional) on supply chain performance (SCP). Design/methodology/approach Multiple case studies and survey methods were used. Data collection in the multiple case studies was performed by in-depth interviews with supply chain executives from top strategic levels in six companies. The research instrument was applied to 185 executives from large companies that possessed a broad, complex supply chain in Brazil. Findings It was identified that SCG, comprising contractual, relational and transactional aspects, has a positive influence on operational and financial SCP. SCG was found to be a more comprehensive view of the supply chain that focuses on more strategic aspects and long-term inter-organizational relationships. SCG affects SCP, primarily in the operational aspects with regard to global costs and in the financial aspects of investment return. Originality/value SCG is a topic that has been widely studied in recent years for analysing inter-organizational relations as a multi-dimensional phenomenon embedded in the company’s structures and processes. Studies analysing all aspects of SCG at the same time, however, have not been found. Moreover, there are a number of performance indicators, but there is a lack of consensus on what determines the performance of these supply chains. Furthermore, few studies have attempted to understand the effects of SCG on supply chain performance.

Abstract: Accumulation of indigenous innovative capabilities in firms in developing economies (‘latecomer firms’) may contribute to sustainable industrial development. To enhance understanding of capability accumulation processes in latecomer firms, this study examines inter- and intra-firm variations in the levels and time scales of micro-level capability accumulation, related interdependencies with external organisations, and implications for innovation. Drawing on an empirically grounded study of firms from the Brazilian sugarcane ethanol industry, this study finds that the implementation of ambitious and wide-ranging innovations depends on varied internal and external capabilities. However, there are considerable variations between and within firms in their internal and external capability accumulation for specific technological functions. Firms with greater capabilities and openness undertake more ambitions innovations. Using a nuanced micro-level approach that goes beyond the firm as the main unit of observation, this study furthers understanding of the intricate, dynamic, and interdependent processes of latecomer firms' capability accumulation. It also allows deeper analysis of the implications of firms' innovative capability building for sustainable industrial development in developing economies.

Abstract: This paper makes the case for studying the work of web archivists, in an effort to explore the ways in which practitioners shape the preservation and maintenance of the archived Web in its various forms. An ethnographic approach is taken through the use of observation, interviews and documentary sources over the course of several weeks in collaboration with web archivists, engineers and managers at the Internet Archive - a private, non-profit digital library that has been archiving the Web since 1996. The concept of web archival labour is proposed to encompass and highlight the ways in which web archivists (as both networked human and non-human agents) shape and maintain the preserved Web through work that is often embedded in and obscured by the complex technical arrangements of collection and access. As a result, this engagement positions web archives as places of knowledge and cultural production in their own right, revealing new insights into the performative nature of web archiving that have implications for how these data are used and understood.1

Abstract: Aims. Important transformations in psychiatric healthcare (HC) delivery have been implemented in Latin America during the beginning of 21st century. However, information on current service uses patterns is scant, obstructing the estimates and proper planning of service needs for general population. The current investigation aims to describe patterns and estimates predictors of 12-month HC use by individuals with mental disorders in Sao Paulo metropolitan area, Brazil. Method. Data are from Sao Paulo Mental Health Survey, a cross-sectional multistage representative study. Participants were face-to-face interviewed in their household, using a structured diagnostic interview, the World Mental Health Survey Initiative version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. A total of 5037 respondents, non-institutionalised, aged 18 years and older were interviewed. The response rate was 81.3%. We determined the percentages of individuals with 12-month DSM-IV anxiety, mood and substance disorders that received treatment in the 12 months prior to assessment in main service sectors (specialty mental health, general medicine, human services (HS), and complementary and alternative medicine). The number of visits and percentage of individuals who received treatment at minimally adequacy also was estimated. Multilevel regression controlled contextual variables that influenced the use of service and treatment adequacy. Results. Only 10.1% of respondents used some HC service in the 12 months prior to assessment for their psychiatric problems, including 3.9% of them being treated either by a psychiatrist, 3.5% by a non-psychiatrist mental health specialist, 3.3% by a general medical (GM) provider, 1.5% by a HS provider and 1.4% by a complementary and alternative medical provider. In general, those participants who received service in the mental health specialty sector reported more visits than those in the GM sector (median 3.9 v. 1.5 visits). The cases seen in specialty sector outnumber those visiting GM treatment in terms of minimally adequate treatment (54.6 v. 23.2%). The likelihood of receiving treatment was significantly greater among individuals diagnosed with any anxiety and mood disorder, presenting more severe disorders, and with possession of HC insurance. Conclusions. The great majority of individuals with an active mental disorder in Sao Paulo were either untreated or insufficiently treated. Awareness and training programmes to GM professionals are advocated to improve recognition, care take and referral to specialty care when needed. Proper integration among HC sectors is recommended.

Abstract: Diante da heterogeneidade economica e social dos municipios brasileiros, torna-se fundamental estudar a distribuicao dos recursos das transferencias, verificando se os municipios que mais necessitam de suporte financeiro tem sido os efetivamente beneficiados. Este trabalho busca avaliar o efeito das transferencias intergovernamentais na equalizacao fiscal dos municipios, investigando se os diversos tipos de transferencias conseguem levar em consideracao a capacidade de autofinanciamento do municipio e a necessidade fiscal atrelada a custos e demandas por servico publico. Os resultados evidenciam que algumas transferencias, que tem natureza redistributiva, como o FPM, contribuem pouco para a equalizacao, enquanto que algumas transferencias condicionais, como o Fundeb, que nao possuem esse objetivo, apresentam um efeito positivo. As transferencias voluntarias sao relativamente neutras, provavelmente por nao seguirem criterios, nem economicos, nem redistributivos, mas politicos. O Bolsa Familia, apesar de nao ser uma transferencia intergovernamental, atenua as distorcoes realizadas pelas demais transferencias observadas.

Abstract: Drawing upon the decolonial theorizing from Latin America, this article examines the odd trajectory of globalization of the bottom-of-pyramid (BoP) approach. Rather than a future-oriented cosmopoli...

Abstract: Summary Selection correction methods usually make assumptions about selection itself. In the case of gender wage gap estimation, those assumptions are especially tenuous because of high female nonparticipation and because selection could be different in different parts of the labor market. This paper proposes an estimator for the wage gap that allows for arbitrary and unobserved heterogeneity in selection. It applies to the subpopulation of “always employed” women, which is similar to men in labor force characteristics. Using CPS data from 1976 to 2005, I show that the gap has narrowed substantially from a −0.521 to a −0.263 log wage point differential for this population.

Abstract: Part of this paper was completed during Chryssi Giannitsarou’s visit to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis – she is grateful for their hospitality.

Abstract: Web-based social and communication technologies enable citizens to self-organize relief efforts in response to crises. This work focuses on a question fundamental to the concept of collective intelligence: how effective are such self-organized channels, ungoverned by any central authority, in conforming to their intended function? In this study we examine the hashtag #PorteOuverte ("#OpenDoor") introduced during the 2015 Paris terrorist attacks, as an "improvised logistical channel" (ILC) to help individuals to find a safe shelter near the attack sites. We analyze the dynamics and effectiveness of #PorteOuverte by comparing its proportion of relevant logistical messages - individuals requesting or offering shelter - to other messages such as those offering emotional consolation or commenting on the hashtag itself. Our results reveal that the vast majority of messages are not relevant, however the crowd senses and spreads relevant messages more than others. We further demonstrate that relevant messages can be automatically detected and thus algorithmic promotion may be possible.

Abstract: The Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) have been found to have predictive capability in a wide range of personal behaviors. The aim of the study is twofold: Firstly, to assess the applicability of the TRA, the TPB, and a newly-developed revised version of the TPB in the context of individuals’ monetary donations to charitable organizations; and secondly, to compare the explanatory and predictive power of these three theoretical models. Data relating to intention to give monetary donation, attitudes toward helping others and toward charitable giving, social norms, moral responsibility, and perceived behavioral control were collected in the first phase of the study by means of a self-completion mail questionnaire distributed to 432 residents of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In the second phase, one month later, telephone interviews were conducted with 221 of the first-phase respondents who had agreed to take part in a follow-up survey of their actual monetary donating behavior. The findings show that the revised TPB is the best of the three models for predicting individuals’ intention to donate and their future monetary-donation behavior, mainly because moral responsibility is included in the theoretical framework. It thus offers superior explanatory and predictive power.

Abstract: Location-Based Social Networks (LBSNs) enable their users to share with their friends the places they go to and whom they go with. Additionally, they provide users with recommendations for Points of Interest (POI) they have not visited before. This functionality is of great importance for users of LBSNs, as it allows them to discover interesting places in populous cities that are not easy to explore. For this reason, previous research has focused on providing recommendations to LBSN users. Nevertheless, while most existing work focuses on recommendations for individual users, techniques to provide recommendations to groups of users are scarce.In this paper, we consider the problem of recommending a list of POIs to a group of users in the areas that the group frequents. Our data consist of activity on Swarm, a social networking app by Foursquare, and our results demonstrate that our proposed Geo-Group-Recommender (GGR), a class of hybrid recommender systems that combine the group geographical preferences using Kernel Density Estimation, category and location features and group check-ins outperform a large number of other recommender systems. Moreover, we find evidence that user preferences differ both in venue category and in location between individual and group activities. We also show that combining individual recommendations using group aggregation strategies is not as good as building a profile for a group. Our experiments show that (GGR) outperforms the baselines in terms of precision and recall at different cutoffs.