The use of data-driven techniques such as artificial neural network (ANN) models for outdoor air pollution forecasting has been popular in the past two decades. However, research activity on uncertainty surrounding the development of ANN models has been limited. Therefore, this review outlines the approaches for addressing model uncertainty according to the steps for building ANN models. Based on 128 articles published from 2000 to 2022, the review reveals that input uncertainty was predominantly addressed while less focus was given to the structure, parameter and output uncertainties. Ensemble approaches have been mostly employed, followed by neuro-fuzzy networks. However, the direct measurement of uncertainty received less attention. The use of bootstrapping, Bayesian, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques which can quantify uncertainty was also limited. In conclusion, this review recommends the development and application of approaches that can both handle and quantify uncertainty surrounding the development of ANN models. • A review was on the methods used to address the uncertainty surrounding the development of ANN models for air pollution forecasting was conducted. • Input uncertainty was predominantly addressed. • Ensemble and neuro-fuzzy approaches were popularly employed. • The adoption of methods that can both handle and quantify model uncertainty was limited. 

Methods used for handling and quantifying model uncertainty of artificial neural network models for air pollution forecasting

Many studies use machine learning to predict atmospheric pollutant levels, prioritizing accuracy

pdf/interpretable-machine-learning-approaches-for-forecasting-2gl3smpepv.pdf

Interpretable Machine Learning Approaches for Forecasting and Predicting Air Pollution: A Systematic Review

PM2.5 Prediction is a complex task of large-scale spatio-temporal analysis, which not only needs comprehension of static geospatial knowledge and relative features but also needs to analyze the real-time situation. This paper discusses the characteristics of the static graph and the dynamic graph in spatio-temporal series tasks. An Adaptive Scalable Spatio-temporal Graph Convolutional Network(ASGCN) model is proposed to predict PM2.5. To capture and analyze the characteristics of the time series period of PM2.5, a time convolution network based on the strategies of inception and gating is proposed and used as a temporal module. A dynamic graph idea is adopted to distinguish the spatio-temporal similarity of different periods. And an adaptive weighted multilayer graph convolution network is used to process static and dynamic graphs, aiming to analyze the spatial relationship of PM2.5 stations. The convolution network with the inception and gating improves the time-series feature capture ability, and adaptive static and dynamic graphs enhance the spatial relationship analysis ability. The temporal and spatial modules of the model are relatively independent, which benefits obtaining the potential information of datasets to improve the prediction accuracy. At the same time, these modules cooperate to make the model adaptable to various data. We choose a great number of comparative models and design a thorough experimental scheme including single-step prediction, multi-step prediction, hyperparameter experiments, and ablation experiments on two real PM2.5 datasets collected in China. Finally, the model achieves performance close to or better than the current state-of-the-art models selected for comparison in prediction tasks. 

Adaptive scalable spatio-temporal graph convolutional network for PM2.5 prediction

The global increase in energy demand and environmental concerns have made the development of wind energy increasingly important. Accurate wind speed prediction is crucial for maximizing the benefits of wind energy. In order to further improve the accuracy of multi-site wind speed prediction, this study adopts an evolutionary algorithm-based deep learning model that fully considers the spatiotemporal relationships among multiple station's wind speed data. Firstly, the mutual information (MI) method is used to select variables with stronger correlations to wind speed as auxiliary input factors. Then, an improved version of Attribute-Augmented Spatiotemporal Graph Convolutional Network (IASTGCN) is employed to process data from multiple stations, taking into account both temporal and spatial factors. Additionally, an MI-based wind speed data relationship matrix between multiple stations is calculated to replace the original distance relationship matrix in the model, enabling the model to better capture and utilize the relationships between stations. Next, the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) is used to optimize the hyperparameters of the model. This ultimately achieves multi-site multi-step wind speed prediction. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms baseline models and models that only consider either temporal or spatial factors in various scenarios, exhibiting better predictive performance. 

Simultaneous forecasting of wind speed for multiple stations based on attribute-augmented spatiotemporal graph convolutional network and tree-structured parzen estimator

In the last decade the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in the transport sector, including the marine sector, has become the direction of its strategic development. Increased air pollution in the air is one of the main reasons for premature deaths around the globe. It was determined that while many methods provide adequate information about pollution levels, improvements could be made to avoid major errors. The traditional methods are either expensive or require a lot of data and human resources to correctly evaluate those data arrays. To avoid these problems, artificial neural networks (ANN) and other machine learning methods are widely used nowadays. Many ANN models for ship pollution evaluation in ports either included the whole port area or went even further and included cities near port areas. These studies show that ANNs can be effectively used to evaluate air pollution in a wide area. However, there is a lack of research on ANN usage for individual ship pollution or ship plume evaluation. This study attempts to fill this gap by developing an ANN model to evaluate an individual ship’s plumes by combining several data sources such as AIS data, meteorological data, and measured the ship’s plume pollutants concentration. Results show good correlation; however, additional limitations have to be overcome regarding data filtering and the overall accuracy of the model.

/pdf/particulate-matter-pm1-2-5-10-concentration-prediction-in-1re6mvec.pdf

Particulate Matter (PM1, 2.5, 10) Concentration Prediction in Ship Exhaust Gas Plume through an Artificial Neural Network

Accurate and fine-grained prediction of PM2.5 concentration is of great significance for air quality control and human physical and mental health. Traditional approaches, such as time series, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) or graph convolutional networks (GCNs), cannot effectively integrate spatial–temporal and meteorological factors and manage dynamic edge relationships among scattered monitoring stations. In this paper, a spatial–temporal causal convolution network framework, ST-CCN-PM2.5, is proposed. Both the spatial effects of multi-source air pollutants and meteorological factors are considered via spatial attention mechanism. Time-dependent features in causal convolution networks are extracted by stacked dilated convolution and time attention. All the hyper-parameters in ST-CCN-PM2.5 are tuned by Bayesian optimization. Haikou air monitoring station data are employed with a series of baselines (AR, MA, ARMA, ANN, SVR, GRU, LSTM and ST-GCN). Final results include the following points: (1) For a single station, the RMSE, MAE and R2 values of ST-CCN-PM2.5 decreased by 27.05%, 10.38% and 3.56% on average, respectively. (2) For all stations, ST-CCN-PM2.5 achieve the best performance in win–tie–loss experiments. The numbers of winning stations are 68, 63, and 64 out of 95 stations in RMSE (MSE), MAE, and R2, respectively. In addition, the mean MSE, RMSE and MAE of ST-CCN-PM2.5 are 4.94, 2.17 and 1.31, respectively, and the R2 value is 0.92. (3) Shapley analysis shows wind speed is the most influencing factor in fine-grained PM2.5 concentration prediction. The effects of CO and temperature on PM2.5 prediction are moderately significant. Friedman test under different resampling further confirms the advantage of ST-CCN-PM2.5. The ST-CCN-PM2.5 provides a promising direction for fine-grained PM2.5 prediction.

/pdf/a-spatial-temporal-causal-convolution-network-framework-for-1nhu4jpz.pdf

A Spatial–Temporal Causal Convolution Network Framework for Accurate and Fine-Grained PM2.5 Concentration Prediction

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A Spatial–Temporal Causal Convolution Network Framework for Accurate and Fine-Grained PM2.5 Concentration Prediction