The author's preface gives an outline: "This book is about weakconvergence methods in metric spaces, with applications sufficient to show their power and utility. The Introduction motivates the definitions and indicates how the theory will yield solutions to problems arising outside it. Chapter 1 sets out the basic general theorems, which are then specialized in Chapter 2 to the space C[0, l ] of continuous functions on the unit interval and in Chapter 3 to the space D [0, 1 ] of functions with discontinuities of the first kind. The results of the first three chapters are used in Chapter 4 to derive a variety of limit theorems for dependent sequences of random variables. " The book develops and expands on Donsker's 1951 and 1952 papers on the invariance principle and empirical distributions. The basic random variables remain real-valued although, of course, measures on C[0, l ] and D[0, l ] are vitally used. Within this framework, there are various possibilities for a different and apparently better treatment of the material. More of the general theory of weak convergence of probabilities on separable metric spaces would be useful. Metrizability of the convergence is not brought up until late in the Appendix. The close relation of the Prokhorov metric and a metric for convergence in probability is (hence) not mentioned (see V. Strassen, Ann. Math. Statist. 36 (1965), 423-439; the reviewer, ibid. 39 (1968), 1563-1572). This relation would illuminate and organize such results as Theorems 4.1, 4.2 and 4.4 which give isolated, ad hoc connections between weak convergence of measures and nearness in probability. In the middle of p. 16, it should be noted that C*(S) consists of signed measures which need only be finitely additive if 5 is not compact. On p. 239, where the author twice speaks of separable subsets having nonmeasurable cardinal, he means "discrete" rather than "separable." Theorem 1.4 is Ulam's theorem that a Borel probability on a complete separable metric space is tight. Theorem 1 of Appendix 3 weakens completeness to topological completeness. After mentioning that probabilities on the rationals are tight, the author says it is an

Convergence of probability measures

Probability and Measure

When the data are high dimensional, widely used multivariate statistical methods such as principal component analysis can behave in unexpected ways. In settings where the dimension of the observations is comparable to the sample size, upward bias in sample eigenvalues and inconsistency of sample eigenvectors are among the most notable phenomena that appear. These phenomena, and the limiting behavior of the rescaled extreme sample eigenvalues, have recently been investigated in detail under the spiked covariance model. The behavior of the bulk of the sample eigenvalues under weak distributional assumptions on the observations has been described. These results have been exploited to develop new estimation and hypothesis testing methods for the population covariance matrix. Furthermore, partly in response to these phenomena, alternative classes of estimation procedures have been developed by exploiting sparsity of the eigenvectors or the covariance matrix. This paper gives an orientation to these areas.

PCA in High Dimensions: An Orientation

Smart structural health monitoring (SHM) for large-scale infrastructure is an intriguing subject for engineering communities thanks to its significant advantages such as timely damage detection, optimal maintenance strategy, and reduced resource requirement. Yet, it is a challenging topic as it requires handling a large amount of collected sensors data continuously, which is inevitably contaminated by random noises. Therefore, this study developed a practical end-to-end framework that makes use of physical features embedded in raw data and an elaborated hybrid deep learning model, namely 1-DCNN-LSTM, featuring two algorithms—convolutional neural network (CNN) and long-short term memory (LSTM). In order to extract relevant features from sensory data, the method combines various signal processing techniques such as the autoregressive model, discrete wavelet transform, and empirical mode decomposition. The hybrid deep learning 1-DCNN-LSTM is designed based on the CNN’s capacity of capturing local information and the LSTM network’s prominent ability to learn long-term dependencies. Through three case studies involving both experimental and synthetic data sets, it is demonstrated that the proposed approach achieves highly accurate damage detection, as accurate as the powerful 2-D CNN, but with a lower time and memory complexity, making it suitable for real-time SHM. Note to Practitioners —This article aims to develop a practical data-driven method for automatically monitoring the operational state of structures. In order to achieve consistently and highly accurate results in performing different tasks for diverse structures, we combine underlying features in both time and frequency domains extracted from measured signal vibration data. Three popular data featuring methods are combined to achieve the diversity gain which would not be possible with each individual method. As the vibration is usually measured by long time-series signals, the most efficient deep learning architecture for time-series signal, namely long-short term memory (LSTM), is considered for this work. Besides, each structure has its own dynamic properties, i.e., eigenfrequencies, around which the most relevant information is in the frequency domain, thus convolutional neural network specifically designed for capturing local information is used in combination with LSTM, forming a hybrid deep learning architecture. The applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach are supported by three case studies with different types of structures, showing highly accurate damage detection with reduced resource requirements. These advantages can be valuable for developing a model for live monitoring of structural health in the future life-line infrastructures.

/pdf/data-driven-structural-health-monitoring-using-feature-31at8truvp.pdf

Data-Driven Structural Health Monitoring Using Feature Fusion and Hybrid Deep Learning

This paper deals with the dimension reduction of high-dimensional time series based on common factors. In particular we allow the dimension of time series p to be as large as, or even larger than, the sample size n. The estimation of the factor loading matrix and the factor process itself is carried out via an eigenanalysis of a p £ p non-negative de¯nite matrix. We show that when all the factors are strong in the sense that the norm of each column in the factor loading matrix is of the order p1=2, the estimator of the factor loading matrix is weakly consistent in L2-norm with the convergence rate independent of p. This result exhibits clearly that the `curse' is canceled out by the `blessing' of dimensionality. We also establish the asymptotic properties of the estimation when factors are not strong. The proposed method together with their asymptotic properties are further illustrated in a simulation study. An application to an implied volatility data set, together with a trading strategy derived from the ¯tted factor model, is also reported.

Estimation of latent factors for high-dimensional time series

Identifying the number of factors in a high-dimensional factor model has attracted much attention in recent years and a general solution to the problem is still lacking. A promising ratio estimator based on the singular values of the lagged autocovariance matrix has been recently proposed in the literature and is shown to have a good performance under some specific assumption on the strength of the factors. Inspired by this ratio estimator and as a first main contribution, this paper proposes a complete theory of such sample singular values for both the factor part and the noise part under the large-dimensional scheme where the dimension and the sample size proportionally grow to infinity. In particular, we provide the exact description of the phase transition phenomenon that determines whether a factor is strong enough to be detected with the observed sample singular values. Based on these findings and as a second main contribution of the paper, we propose a new estimator of the number of factors which is strongly consistent for the detection of all significant factors (which are the only theoretically detectable ones). In particular, factors are assumed to have the minimum strength above the phase transition boundary which is of the order of a constant; they are thus not required to grow to infinity together with the dimension (as assumed in most of the existing papers on high-dimensional factor models). Empirical Monte-Carlo study as well as the analysis of stock returns data attest a very good performance of the proposed estimator. In all the tested cases, the new estimator largely outperforms the existing estimator using the same ratios of singular values.

pdf/identifying-the-number-of-factors-from-singular-values-of-a-2fuypyk7yg.pdf

Identifying the number of factors from singular values of a large sample auto-covariance matrix

Identifying the number of factors in a high-dimensional factor model has attracted much attention in recent years and a general solution to the problem is still lacking. A promising ratio estimator based on singular values of lagged sample auto-covariance matrices has been recently proposed in the literature with a reasonably good performance under some specific assumption on the strength of the factors. Inspired by this ratio estimator and as a first main contribution, this paper proposes a complete theory of such sample singular values for both the factor part and the noise part under the large-dimensional scheme where the dimension and the sample size proportionally grow to infinity. In particular, we provide an exact description of the phase transition phenomenon that determines whether a factor is strong enough to be detected with the observed sample singular values. Based on these findings and as a second main contribution of the paper, we propose a new estimator of the number of factors which is strongly consistent for the detection of all significant factors (which are the only theoretically detectable ones). In particular, factors are assumed to have the minimum strength above the phase transition boundary which is of the order of a constant; they are thus not required to grow to infinity together with the dimension (as assumed in most of the existing papers on high-dimensional factor models). Empirical Monte-Carlo study as well as the analysis of stock returns data attest a very good performance of the proposed estimator. In all the tested cases, the new estimator largely outperforms the existing estimator using the same ratios of singular values.

/pdf/identifying-the-number-of-factors-from-singular-values-of-a-2jv4iiz2z4.pdf

This paper studies the joint limiting behavior of extreme eigenvalues and trace of large sample covariance matrix in a generalized spiked population model, where the asymptotic regime is such that the dimension and sample size grow proportionally. The form of the joint limiting distribution is applied to conduct Johnson–Graybill-type tests, a family of approaches testing for signals in a statistical model. For this, higher order correction is further made, helping alleviate the impact of finite-sample bias. The proof rests on determining the joint asymptotic behavior of two classes of spectral processes, corresponding to the extreme and linear spectral statistics, respectively.

Asymptotic joint distribution of extreme eigenvalues and trace of large sample covariance matrix in a generalized spiked population model

The availability of high-frequency financial data has led to substantial improvements in our understanding of financial volatility. Most existing literature focuses on estimating the integrated volatility over a fixed period. This article proposes a non-parametric threshold kernel method to estimate the time-dependent spot volatility and jumps when the underlying price process is governed by Brownian semimartingale with finite activity jumps. The threshold kernel estimator combines the threshold estimation for integrated volatility and the kernel filtering approach for spot volatility when the price process is driven only by diffusions without jumps. The estimator proposed is consistent and asymptotically normal and has the same rate of convergence as the estimator studied by Kristensen (2010) in a setting without jumps. The Monte Carlo simulation study shows that the proposed estimator exhibits excellent performance over a wide range of jump sizes and for different sampling frequencies. An empirical example is given to illustrate the potential applications of the proposed method.

Non-parametric estimation of high-frequency spot volatility for brownian semimartingale with jumps

Let $(\varepsilon_j)_{j\geq 0}$ be a sequence of independent $p-$dimensional random vectors and $\tau\geq1$ a given integer. From a sample $\varepsilon_1,\cdots,\varepsilon_{T+\tau-1},\varepsilon_{T+\tau}$ of the sequence, the so-called lag $-\tau$ auto-covariance matrix is $C_{\tau}=T^{-1}\sum_{j=1}^T\varepsilon_{\tau+j}\varepsilon_{j}^t$. When the dimension $p$ is large compared to the sample size $T$, this paper establishes the limit of the singular value distribution of $C_\tau$ assuming that $p$ and $T$ grow to infinity proportionally and the sequence satisfies a Lindeberg condition on fourth order moments. Compared to existing asymptotic results on sample covariance matrices developed in random matrix theory, the case of an auto-covariance matrix is much more involved due to the fact that the summands are dependent and the matrix $C_\tau$ is not symmetric. Several new techniques are introduced for the derivation of the main theorem.

On singular value distribution of large dimensional auto-covariance matrices

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Papers

Identifying the number of factors from singular values of a large sample auto-covariance matrix

Identifying the number of factors from singular values of a large sample auto-covariance matrix

Asymptotic joint distribution of extreme eigenvalues and trace of large sample covariance matrix in a generalized spiked population model

Non-parametric estimation of high-frequency spot volatility for brownian semimartingale with jumps

On singular value distribution of large dimensional auto-covariance matrices