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Mathematical Methods Of Statistics

When maximum likelihood estimation is infeasible, one often turns to score matching, contrastive divergence, or minimum probability flow to obtain tractable parameter estimates. We provide a unifying perspective of these techniques as minimum Stein discrepancy estimators, and use this lens to design new diffusion kernel Stein discrepancy (DKSD) and diffusion score matching (DSM) estimators with complementary strengths. We establish the consistency, asymptotic normality, and robustness of DKSD and DSM estimators, then derive stochastic Riemannian gradient descent algorithms for their efficient optimisation. The main strength of our methodology is its flexibility, which allows us to design estimators with desirable properties for specific models at hand by carefully selecting a Stein discrepancy. We illustrate this advantage for several challenging problems for score matching, such as non-smooth, heavy-tailed or light-tailed densities.

/pdf/minimum-stein-discrepancy-estimators-1fc537kfb6.pdf

Minimum Stein Discrepancy Estimators

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying issue. For example, in military sensor networks, users will want to detect when one or more of the sensors has been compromised, and critically, they will want to know which specific sensors might be compromised. Thus, we first define a formalization of this problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests and propose both non-parametric and parametric statistical tests. For both efficiency and flexibility, we then propose to use a test statistic based on the density model score function (i.e. gradient with respect to the input) -- which can easily compute test statistics for all dimensions in a single forward and backward pass. Any density model could be used for computing the necessary statistics including deep density models such as normalizing flows or autoregressive models. We additionally develop methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data and show results for multiple scenarios using realistic attack models on both simulated and real world data.

/pdf/feature-shift-detection-localizing-which-features-have-40h4jyc92k.pdf

Feature Shift Detection: Localizing Which Features Have Shifted via Conditional Distribution Tests

Abstract Generalised Bayesian inference updates prior beliefs using a loss function, rather than a likelihood, and can therefore be used to confer robustness against possible mis-specification of the likelihood. Here we consider generalised Bayesian inference with a Stein discrepancy as a loss function, motivated by applications in which the likelihood contains an intractable normalisation constant. In this context, the Stein discrepancy circumvents evaluation of the normalisation constant and produces generalised posteriors that are either closed form or accessible using the standard Markov chain Monte Carlo. On a theoretical level, we show consistency, asymptotic normality, and bias-robustness of the generalised posterior, highlighting how these properties are impacted by the choice of Stein discrepancy. Then, we provide numerical experiments on a range of intractable distributions, including applications to kernel-based exponential family models and non-Gaussian graphical models. 

/pdf/robust-generalised-bayesian-inference-for-intractable-5jxusgf7.pdf

Robust Generalised Bayesian Inference for Intractable Likelihoods

Generalised Bayesian inference updates prior beliefs using a loss function, rather than a likelihood, and can therefore be used to confer robustness against possible misspecification of the likelihood. Here we consider generalised Bayesian inference with a Stein discrepancy as a loss function, motivated by applications in which the likelihood contains an intractable normalisation constant. In this context, the Stein discrepancy circumvents evaluation of the normalisation constant and produces generalised posteriors that are either closed form or accessible using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo. On a theoretical level, we show consistency, asymptotic normality, and bias-robustness of the generalised posterior, highlighting how these properties are impacted by the choice of Stein discrepancy. Then, we provide numerical experiments on a range of intractable distributions, including applications to kernel-based exponential family models and non-Gaussian graphical models.

Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLE) has many good properties. For example, the asymptotic variance of MLE solution attains equality of the asymptotic Cram{e}r-Rao lower bound (efficiency bound), which is the minimum possible variance for an unbiased estimator. However, obtaining such MLE solution requires calculating the likelihood function which may not be tractable due to the normalization term of the density model. In this paper, we derive a Discriminative Likelihood Estimator (DLE) from the Kullback-Leibler divergence minimization criterion implemented via density ratio estimation and a Stein operator. We study the problem of model inference using DLE. We prove its consistency and show that the asymptotic variance of its solution can attain the equality of the efficiency bound under mild regularity conditions. We also propose a dual formulation of DLE which can be easily optimized. Numerical studies validate our asymptotic theorems and we give an example where DLE successfully estimates an intractable model constructed using a pre-trained deep neural network.

Fisher Efficient Inference of Intractable Models

Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLE) has many good properties. For example, the asymptotic variance of MLE solution attains equality of the asymptotic Cram{\'e}r-Rao lower bound (efficiency bound), which is the minimum possible variance for an unbiased estimator. However, obtaining such MLE solution requires calculating the likelihood function which may not be tractable due to the normalization term of the density model. In this paper, we derive a Discriminative Likelihood Estimator (DLE) from the Kullback-Leibler divergence minimization criterion implemented via density ratio estimation and a Stein operator. We study the problem of model inference using DLE. We prove its consistency and show that the asymptotic variance of its solution can attain the equality of the efficiency bound under mild regularity conditions. We also propose a dual formulation of DLE which can be easily optimized. Numerical studies validate our asymptotic theorems and we give an example where DLE successfully estimates an intractable model constructed using a pre-trained deep neural network.

/pdf/fisher-efficient-inference-of-intractable-models-2nl7jn8xbc.pdf

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Fisher Efficient Inference of Intractable Models

Fisher Efficient Inference of Intractable Models