Disastrous floods have caused millions of fatalities in the twentieth century, tens of billions of dollars of direct economic loss each year and serious disruption to global trade. In this Review, we provide a synthesis of the atmospheric, land surface and socio-economic processes that produce river floods with disastrous consequences. Disastrous floods have often been caused by processes fundamentally different from those of non-disastrous floods, such as unusual but recurring atmospheric circulation patterns or failures of flood defences, which lead to high levels of damage because they are unexpected both by citizens and by flood managers. Past trends in economic flood impacts show widespread increases, mostly driven by economic and population growth. However, the number of fatalities and people affected has decreased since the mid-1990s because of risk reduction measures, such as improved risk awareness and structural flood defences. Disastrous flooding is projected to increase in many regions, particularly in Asia and Africa, owing to climate and socio-economic changes, although substantial uncertainties remain. Assessing the risk of disastrous river floods requires a deeper understanding of their distinct causes. Transdisciplinary research is needed to understand the potential for surprise in flood risk systems better and to operationalize risk management concepts that account for limited knowledge and unexpected developments. River floods have direct and indirect consequences for society, and can cause fatalities, displacement and economic loss. This Review examines the physical and socioeconomic causes and impacts of disastrous river flooding, and past and projected trends in their occurrence.

Causes, impacts and patterns of disastrous river floods

. With projected changes in climate, population and socioeconomic activity located in flood-prone areas, the global assessment of flood risk is essential to inform climate change policy and disaster risk management. Whilst global flood risk models exist for this purpose, the accuracy of their results is greatly limited by the lack of information on the current standard of protection to floods, with studies either neglecting this aspect or resorting to crude assumptions. Here we present a first global database of FLOod PROtection Standards, FLOPROS, which comprises information in the form of the flood return period associated with protection measures, at different spatial scales. FLOPROS comprises three layers of information, and combines them into one consistent database. The design layer contains empirical information about the actual standard of existing protection already in place; the policy layer contains information on protection standards from policy regulations; and the model layer uses a validated modelling approach to calculate protection standards. The policy layer and the model layer can be considered adequate proxies for actual protection standards included in the design layer, and serve to increase the spatial coverage of the database. Based on this first version of FLOPROS, we suggest a number of strategies to further extend and increase the resolution of the database. Moreover, as the database is intended to be continually updated, while flood protection standards are changing with new interventions, FLOPROS requires input from the flood risk community. We therefore invite researchers and practitioners to contribute information to this evolving database by corresponding to the authors.

/pdf/flopros-an-evolving-global-database-of-flood-protection-4v6ih3ky1t.pdf

FLOPROS: an evolving global database of flood protection standards

The June 2013 flood in the Upper Danube Basin was one of the largest floods in the past two centuries. An atmospheric blocking situation produced precipitation ex- ceeding 300 mm over four days at the northern rim of the Alps. The high precipitation, along with high antecedent soil moisture, gave rise to extreme flood discharges in a number of tributaries including the Tiroler Ache, Saalach, Salzach and Inn. Runoff coefficients ranged from 0.2 in the Bavar- ian lowlands to 0.6 in the Alpine areas in Austria. Snow- fall at high altitudes (above about 1600 m a.s.l.) reduced the runoff volume produced. Precipitation was distributed over two blocks separated by a few hours, which resulted in a sin- gle peak, long-duration flood wave at the Inn and Danube. At the confluence of the Bavarian Danube and the Inn, the small time lag between the two flood waves exacerbated the downstream flood at the Danube. Because of the long dura- tion and less inundation, there was less flood peak attenu- ation along the Austrian Danube reach than for the August 2002 flood. Maximum flood discharges of the Danube at Vi- enna were about 11 000 m 3 s 1 , as compared to 10 300, 9600 and 10 500 m 3 s 1 in 2002, 1954 and 1899, respectively. This paper reviews the meteorological and hydrological charac- teristics of the event as compared to the 2002, 1954 and 1899 floods, and discusses the implications for hydrological research and flood risk management.

/pdf/the-june-2013-flood-in-the-upper-danube-basin-and-3n70xtqab5.pdf

The June 2013 flood in the Upper Danube Basin, and comparisons with the 2002, 1954 and 1899 floods

A framework for evaluating flood risk governance

. Urban flooding has been and will continue to be a significant problem for many cities across the developed and developing world. Crucial to the amelioration of the effects of these floods is the need to formulate a sound flood management policy, which is driven by knowledge of the frequency and magnitude of impacts of these floods. Within the area of flood research, attempts are being made to gain a better understanding of the causes, impacts, and pattern of urban flooding. According to the United Nations office for disaster reduction (UNISDR), flood risk is conceptualized on the basis of three integral components which are frequently adopted during flood damage estimation. These components are: probability of flood hazard, the level of exposure, and vulnerabilities of elements at risk. Reducing the severity of each of these components is the objective of flood risk management under the UNISDR guideline and idea of “living with floods”. On the basis of this framework, the present research reviews flood risk within the Lagos area of Nigeria over the period 1968–2012. During this period, floods have caused harm to millions of people physically, emotionally, and economically. Arguably over this period the efforts of stakeholders to address the challenges appear to have been limited by, amongst other things, a lack of reliable data, a lack of awareness amongst the population affected, and a lack of knowledge of flood risk mitigation. It is the aim of this research to assess the current understanding of flood risk and management in Lagos and to offer recommendations towards future guidance.

/pdf/review-article-a-review-and-critical-analysis-of-the-efforts-48sr7rgh87.pdf

Review article: A review and critical analysis of the efforts towards urban flood risk management in the Lagos region of Nigeria

Strategic flood risk management: Comparing international challenges and developing common approaches

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Strategic flood risk management: Comparing international challenges and developing common approaches