Drought research under climate change is of great scientific significance. For Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC), temperature and rainfall in climate change, which factor has a greater impact on runoff change in alpine mountainous areas? Can the increase of rainfall in the alpine mountainous area completely eliminate the drought driven by temperature rise? This study takes the upper reaches of Heihe River basin (URHRB) as an example, the URHRB's Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is constructed. Based on 58 scenarios and The Budyko Framework, here we show that a)climate change has a greater contribution to runoff than LUCC, effect of increased rainfall greater than temperature rising on runoff in alpine mountainous area; b)the drought of 57.14% of UHRRB’s sub-basins have eased, 42.86% of the sub-basins is more serious, the increase in rainfall can't completely eliminate the drought driven by temperature rise. This study coupling SWAT simulation with Budyko Framework and other methods solves the problem of lack of data in alpine mountainous areas, and more accurately quantifies the impact of climate change, LUCC on runoff changes, realizing theoretical and method innovation. The results of this study provide a scientific paradigm for solving scientific problems in similar regions in China and other countries, and have important promotion value.

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Increasing Rainfall and Runoff in Alpine Mountainous Areas Can't Completely Eliminate Drought Driven by Temperature Rise

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Increasing Rainfall and Runoff in Alpine Mountainous Areas Can't Completely Eliminate Drought Driven by Temperature Rise