/pdf/convex-analysisnoer-san-nojin-zhan-nituite-5dl2rbmoyr.pdf

Convex Analysisの二,三の進展について

Networks are ubiquitous in science and have become a focal point for discussion in everyday life. Formal statistical models for the analysis of network data have emerged as a major topic of interest in diverse areas of study, and most of these involve a form of graphical representation. Probability models on graphs date back to 1959. Along with empirical studies in social psychology and sociology from the 1960s, these early works generated an active "network community" and a substantial literature in the 1970s. This effort moved into the statistical literature in the late 1970s and 1980s, and the past decade has seen a burgeoning network literature in statistical physics and computer science. The growth of the World Wide Web and the emergence of online "networking communities" such as Facebook, MySpace, and LinkedIn, and a host of more specialized professional network communities has intensified interest in the study of networks and network data.

Our goal in this review is to provide the reader with an entry point to this burgeoning literature. We begin with an overview of the historical development of statistical network modeling and then we introduce a number of examples that have been studied in the network literature. Our subsequent discussion focuses on a number of prominent static and dynamic network models and their interconnections. We emphasize formal model descriptions, and pay special attention to the interpretation of parameters and their estimation. We end with a description of some open problems and challenges for machine learning and statistics.

https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/4645865/Goldenberg_NetSurvey.pdf?sequence=1

A Survey of Statistical Network Models

Statistical models for social networks as dependent variables must represent the typical network dependencies between tie variables such as reciprocity, homophily, transitivity, etc. This review first treats models for single (cross-sectionally observed) networks and then for network dynamics. For single networks, the older literature concentrated on conditionally uniform models. Various types of latent space models have been developed: for discrete, general metric, ultrametric, Euclidean, and partially ordered spaces. Exponential random graph models were proposed long ago but now are applied more and more thanks to the non-Markovian social circuit specifications that were recently proposed. Modeling network dynamics is less complicated than modeling single network observations because dependencies are spread out in time. For modeling network dynamics, continuous-time models are more fruitful. Actor-oriented models here provide a model that can represent many dependencies in a flexible way. Strong model d...

/pdf/statistical-models-for-social-networks-19aymsimrf.pdf

Statistical Models for Social Networks

We introduce a method for the theoretical analysis of exponential random graph models. The method is based on a large-deviations approximation to the normalizing constant shown to be consistent using theory developed by Chatterjee and Varadhan [European J. Combin. 32 (2011) 1000–1017]. The theory explains a host of difficulties encountered by applied workers: many distinct models have essentially the same MLE, rendering the problems “practically” ill-posed. We give the first rigorous proofs of “degeneracy” observed in these models. Here, almost all graphs have essentially no edges or are essentially complete. We supplement recent work of Bhamidi, Bresler and Sly [2008 IEEE 49th Annual IEEE Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science (FOCS) (2008) 803–812 IEEE] showing that for many models, the extra sufficient statistics are useless: most realizations look like the results of a simple Erdős–Renyi model. We also find classes of models where the limiting graphs differ from Erdős–Renyi graphs. A limitation of our approach, inherited from the limitation of graph limit theory, is that it works only for dense graphs.

/pdf/estimating-and-understanding-exponential-random-graph-models-21mjpyzqvm.pdf

Estimating and understanding exponential random graph models

https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01521673/document

Exponential random graph models for multilevel networks

There has been an explosion of interest in statistical models for analyzing network data, and considerable interest in the class of exponential random graph (ERG) models, especially in connection with difficulties in computing maximum likelihood estimates. The issues associated with these difficulties relate to the broader structure of discrete exponential families. This paper re-examines the issues in two parts. First we consider the closure of k-dimensional exponential families of distribution with discrete base measure and polyhedral convex support P. We show that the normal fan of P is a geometric object that plays a fundamental role in deriving the statistical and geometric properties of the corresponding extended exponential families. We discuss its relevance to maximum likelihood estimation, both from a theoretical and computational standpoint. Second, we apply our results to the analysis of ERG models. By means of a detailed example, we provide some characterization of the properties of ERG models, and, in particular, of certain behaviors of ERG models known as degeneracy.

https://www-eio.upc.edu/~nasini/Blog/Blog_MathematicalSociologyPapers/On_the_Geometry_of_Discrete_Exponential_Family.pdf

On the geometry of discrete exponential families with application to exponential random graph models

There has been an explosion of interest in statistical models for analyzing network data, and considerable interest in the class of exponential random graph (ERG) models, especially in connection with difficulties in computing maximum likelihood estimates. The issues associated with these difficulties relate to the broader structure of discrete exponential families. This paper re-examines the issues in two parts. First we consider the closure of $k$-dimensional exponential families of distribution with discrete base measure and polyhedral convex support $\mathrm{P}$. We show that the normal fan of $\mathrm{P}$ is a geometric object that plays a fundamental role in deriving the statistical and geometric properties of the corresponding extended exponential families. We discuss its relevance to maximum likelihood estimation, both from a theoretical and computational standpoint. Second, we apply our results to the analysis of ERG models. In particular, by means of a detailed example, we provide some characterization of the properties of ERG models, and, in particular, of certain behaviors of ERG models known as degeneracy.

On the Geometry of Discrete Exponential Families with Application to Exponential Random Graph Models

Contingency tables have provided a fertile ground for the growth of algebraic statistics. In this paper we briefly outline some features of this work and point to open research problems. We focus on the problem of maximum likelihood estimation for log-linear models and a related problem of disclosure limitation to protect the confidentiality of individual responses. Risk of disclosure has often been measured either formally or informally in terms of information contained in marginal tables linked to a log-linear model and has focused on the disclosure potential of small cell counts, especially those equal to 1 or 2. One way to assess the risk is to compute bounds for cell entries given a set of released marginals. Both of these methodologies become complicated for large sparse tables. This paper revisits the problem of computing bounds for cell entries and picks up on a theme first suggested in Fienberg [21] that there is an intimate link between the ideas on bounds and the existence of maximum likelihood estimates, and shows how these ideas can be made rigorous through the underlying mathematics of the same geometric/algebraic framework. We illustrate the linkages through a series of examples. We also discuss the more complex problem of releasing marginal and conditional information. We illustrate the statistical features of the methodology on two examples and then conclude with a series of open problems.

http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~arinaldo/papers/IMA_final.pdf

Algebraic Statistics and Contingency Table Problems: Log-Linear Models, Likelihood Estimation, and Disclosure Limitation

Statistical models with latent structure have a history going back to the 1950s and have seen widespread use in the social sciences and, more recently, in computational biology and in machine learning. Here we study the basic latent class model proposed originally by the sociologist Paul F. Lazarfeld for categorical variables, and we explain its geometric structure. We draw parallels between the statistical and geometric properties of latent class models and we illustrate geometrically the causes of many problems associated with maximum likelihood estimation and related statistical inference. In particular, we focus on issues of non-identifiability and determination of the model dimension, of maximization of the likelihood function and on the effect of symmetric data. We illustrate these phenomena with a variety of synthetic and real-life tables, of different dimension and complexity. Much of the motivation for this work stems from the “100 Swiss Francs” problem, which we introduce and describe in detail.

/pdf/maximum-likelihood-estimation-in-latent-class-models-for-1rpuyitpsq.pdf

Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Latent Class Models For Contingency Table Data

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Papers

On the geometry of discrete exponential families with application to exponential random graph models

On the Geometry of Discrete Exponential Families with Application to Exponential Random Graph Models

Algebraic Statistics and Contingency Table Problems: Log-Linear Models, Likelihood Estimation, and Disclosure Limitation

Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Latent Class Models For Contingency Table Data