Generic metrics and quantitative approaches for system resilience as a function of time

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision-making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision-making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit-cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.

Systems resilience for multihazard environments: definition, metrics, and valuation for decision making

Resilience-driven restoration model for interdependent infrastructure networks

A resilient system is a system that possesses the ability to survive and recover from the likelihood of damage due to disruptive events or mishaps. The concept that incorporates resiliency into engineering practices is known as engineering resilience. To date, engineering resilience is still predominantly application-oriented. Despite an increase in the usage of engineering resilience concept, the diversity of its applications in various engineering sectors complicates a universal agreement on its quantification and associated measurement techniques. There is a pressing need to develop a generally applicable engineering resilience analysis framework, which standardizes the modeling, assessment, and improvement of engineering resilience for a broader engineering discipline. This paper provides a literature survey of engineering resilience from the design perspective, with a focus on engineering resilience metrics and their design implications. The currently available engineering resilience quantification metrics are reviewed and summarized, the design implications toward the development of resilient-engineered systems are discussed, and further, the challenges of incorporating resilience into engineering design processes are evaluated. The presented study expects to serve as a building block toward developing a generally applicable engineering resilience analysis framework that can be readily used for system design. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4034223]

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Engineering Resilience Quantification and System Design Implications: A Literature Survey

Critical interdependent infrastructure networks such as water distribution, natural gas pipeline, electricity power, communication and transportation systems provide the essential necessities for societies and their utilization is the backbone of everyday processes such as production, health, convenience and many more. Often cascading dysfunctionality or disruption in these critical infrastructure networks triggers chain reactions of blackouts or blockages through the system of highly interconnected infrastructure networks, and the disruption of surrounding societies. For the planning of restoration processes and resilience of these, social aspects and demographics should also be considered to assign and mitigate the possible social risks associated with these disruptions. In this work, we study the restoration planning of critical interdependent infrastructure networks after a possible disruptive event by mainly emphasizing on the vulnerability indices of interacting society. We integrate (i) a resilience-driven multi-objective mixed-integer programming formulation to schedule the restoration process of disrupted network components in each network with (ii) an index of social vulnerability that is geographically distributed. We present an illustrative example of the proposed integrated model that focuses on studying the community resilience in Shelby County, TN, United States.

Community resilience-driven restoration model for interdependent infrastructure networks

As an unsupported structure, a berthing monopile is often expected to work under harsh conditions. Approaching vessels may introduce considerable berthing energy, resulting in substantial tensile stress on the pile. This vessel impact occurs frequently as a primary load over the service life of the berthing monopile. In this situation, the fatigue safety of circumferential butt welds on piles becomes a crucial aspect in monopile design. This paper evaluates linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM)-based fatigue reliability for circumferential splice welds on steel monopiles. Studied monopiles are those installed in inland waterways, for which the predominant fatigue loading is vessel berthing. Important factors involved in the fatigue reliability assessment are addressed. A geometry function for determining the range of stress intensity factor is identified, an approximate stress concentration factor for piles under bending moment is mathematically formulated, and the beta distribution is applied to characterize the doubly bound hot-spot stress range caused by operational water-level constraints. A detailed case study is presented for illustrative purposes. This paper provides a practical approach to assessing LEFM-based fatigue reliability for steel berthing monopiles. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000063. © 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers. CE Database subject headings: Piles; Marine terminals; Welds; Cracking; Fatigue life; Joints; Reliability; Waterways. Author keywords: Steel piles; Marine terminals; Welds; Cracking; Fatigue life; Tube joints; Reliability; Inland waterways.

Stochastic Fatigue Assessment for Berthing Monopiles in Inland Waterways

The evaluation of crossing probability for a given threshold level of a discrete process is an important modeling issue in stochastic hydrology. Rice’s formula is a tool to measure the instantaneous crossing rate for a given threshold level in a continuous Gaussian process. This paper examines the discrete application of Rice’s formula to estimating the up-crossing probability in typical discrete stationary univariate Gaussian processes. The results based on Rice’s formula are found to follow a biased pattern relative to the exact solutions, and perform poorly in important scenarios, particularly for estimating resilience in these numerical experiments.

Applicability of Rice’s Formula in Stochastic Hydrological Modeling

Mean points of failure and safety domains: Estimation and application

Closure of "Applicability of Rice’s Formula in Stochastic Hydrological Modeling"

Traditional approaches for repeatedly updating reliability estimates, as needed in reliability-based optimal designs or real-time system control, require the iterative application of a reliability method. This paper explores a new strategy for repeatedly estimating reliability under frequent parameter variations. The central idea is to update the design point in the parameter domain, rather than in the traditional random variable domain, by evaluating several parametric sensitivity measures which are systems of nonlinear first-order ordinary differential equations relating the design point to parameter changes. Four numerical algorithms for evaluating the sensitivity measures are developed using the Euler and the improved Euler algorithms. Two solution procedures are applied. One procedure solves for the updated design point directly, while the other solves for both the unit normal vector at the design point and the reliability index separately, and evaluates the product of these to determine the updated design point. The numerical techniques are thoroughly compared with the classical Hasofer and Lind-Rackwitz and Fiessler (HL-RF) algorithm in five numerical examples regarding efficiency and accuracy. It is found that they are efficient and robust under given conditions.

Numerical Approximations of Design Points in Reliability Analysis under Parametric Changes

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