Tropical and subtropical regions can be particularly severely affected by flooding. Climate change is expected to lead to more intense precipitation in many regions of the world, increasing the frequency and magnitude of flood events. This paper presents a review of studies assessing the impacts of climate change on riverine flooding in the world's tropical and subtropical regions. A systematic quantitative approach was used to evaluate the literature. The majority of studies reported increases in flooding under climate change, with the most consistent increases predicted for South Asia, South East Asia, and the western Amazon. Results were more varied for Latin America and Africa where there was a notable paucity of studies. Our review points to the need for further studies in these regions as well as in Australia, in small to mid-sized catchments, and in rapidly urbanising catchments in the developing world. Adoption of non-stationary flood analysis techniques and improved site-specific socio-economic and environmental model scenarios were identified as important future directions for research. Data accessibility and mitigation of model uncertainty were recognised as the principal issues faced by researchers investigating the impacts of climate change on tropical and subtropical rivers.

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A review of the effects of climate change on riverine flooding in subtropical and tropical regions

\n Variations of precipitation, temperature, and runoff in the Yellow River source region were analyzed with the Mann–Kendall and Spearman rank correlation tests over the past 60 years. Based on the seven climate scenarios from CMIP5 climate models under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, responses of hydrological process to climate change were simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Variation analysis results indicated that recorded temperature presented significant increasing trend. Daily minimum temperature presented higher increasing trend than daily maximum temperature. Annual gross precipitation presented minor increasing and annual runoff presented minor decreasing. The VIC model performed well on simulating monthly discharge at Tangnaihai station, with NSE of 0.91 and 0.93 in calibration and validation periods, respectively. The projected annual mean temperature would rise (with 25th and 75th percentiles) 1.07–1.32 °C, 1.76–2.33 °C, 3.45–4.29 °C, annual precipitation is expected to increase 3.43%–11.77%, 8.05%–17.27%, 12.84%–27.89%, and runoff would moderately increase with high variability of 0.82%–14.26%, −3.41%–19.14%, 1.43%–38.26% relative to the baseline of 1961–1990 under each RCP in the 2080s, respectively. The inhomogeneity of runoff may increase in the future. Many more droughts and floods under climate change may threaten social development in this region in the future.

Impacts of climate change on hydrology in the Yellow River source region, China

\n The present study assessed the impact of climate change in the Anandapur catchment of Baitarani River basin, India, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The future climatic alterations under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), i.e. 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, are quantified by an ensemble of two different CMIP5 models, i.e. CNRM-CM5.0, GFDL-CM3.0. The outcomes of this study reveal that the future rainfall and temperature may experience an increasing trend with gradual shifting of monsoon from mid-June to mid-May. The average annual streamflow experienced the highest increase during the period 2071–2095, whereas the highest average annual evapotranspiration (ET) is observed for the period 2046–2070 under both the RCPs and resulting in comparatively slower groundwater recharge (GWR) over the basin. In order to implement suitable adaptation strategies for a possible flood scenario on the concerned study basin, three critical sub-basins, namely, sub-basin 1, 4, and 5, were identified. Furthermore, the altered streamflow and ET dynamics may result in a significant shifting in the conventional agricultural practice in the coming future time scales. Conclusively, the outcomes of this study have potential implications for policy makers in formulating the policies related to sustainable water resources management in future scenarios.

Climate change impact assessment on hydrological fluxes based on ensemble GCM outputs: a case study in eastern Indian River Basin

Chen, X.; Alizad, K.; Wang, D., and Hagen, S.C., 2014. Climate change impact on runoff and sediment loads to the Apalachicola River at seasonal and event scales. In this study, potential climate change impacts on runoff and sediment load in Apalachicola River basin in Florida are assessed using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed hydrologic model. The observed streamflow and sediment load from 1984 to 1994 are used for the model calibration and validation. The streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficients (NSEs) for the simulation and validation periods (1984–1989 and 1990–1994 years) are 0.92 and 0.88, respectively. The sediment NSEs for the simulation and validation periods are calculated to be 0.46 and 0.36, respectively, with excellent description of trend variability. Rainfall data under climate change effects is applied as the calibrated SWAT model input to estimate the streamflow and sediment load change. The rainfall and temperature data is prepared using two regional clima...

https://bioone.org/journals/journal-of-coastal-research/volume-68/issue-sp1/SI68-005.1/Climate-Change-Impact-on-Runoff-and-Sediment-Loads-to-the/10.2112/SI68-005.1.pdf

Climate Change Impact on Runoff and Sediment Loads to the Apalachicola River at Seasonal and Event Scales

In the context of climate change, it is essential to quantify the uncertainty for effective design and risk management practices. In the present study, we have accessed the climate model and flood return level uncertainties over a river basin. Six high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used to project the future climate change impact on streamflow of Wainganga River basin. Uncertainty associated with the use of high-resolution multiple GCM is treated with reliability ensemble average (REA) followed by bias correction. The bias-corrected weighted outputs are used as input to variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, a physically based hydrological model. Calibration and validation are carried out for the hydrological model, and the parameters of VIC are fixed through trial-and-error method. The uncertainty in flood return level associated with the future projected flows is dealt with the Bayesian analysis and modelled through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique using Metropolis–Hastings algorithm with the non-informative prior distribution. The study provides a robust framework, which will help in effective decision-making and adaptation strategies over the river basin.

Assessment of uncertainty in estimating future flood return levels under climate change

The climate change impact on hydrology in China’s Huang-Huai-Hai (H-H-H) region was assessed in this study. Both variations in mean monthly and annual runoff and occurrences of extreme events including flood and drought were examined for two future periods (2001–2030 and 2016–2045) in the whole region. The projected daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation from the PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies) regional climate model were used to drive the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrology model. Variable infiltration capacity was run over a regional domain of 408 grid points at a spatial resolution of 50×50  km. The result shows that PRECIS projects increase in both future temperature (0.8–1.5°C) and precipitation (3.5–7.3%) in the H-H-H region under A2 and B2 scenarios of the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Over the entire H-H-H region, VIC projects increase 11.3 and 13.7% in mean annual r...

Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Hydrology in Huang-Huai-Hai Region in China Using the PRECIS and VIC Models

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Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Hydrology in Huang-Huai-Hai Region in China Using the PRECIS and VIC Models