Statistical Practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1, 124, 254, 297 History Corner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20, 179 Teacher’s Corner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26, 173, 263, 335 General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40, 147, 211, 366 Statistical Computing and Graphics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Statistical Computing and Software Reviews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75, 187 Reviews of Books and Teaching Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92, 189, 281, 401 Brief Reviews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100, 195, 292, 404 Letters to the Editor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102, 197, 294, 406 Special Section: Statistical Training and Curricular Revision . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 Errata . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 Special Section: Opportunities and Challenges for the Discipline . . . . . . . . . 201 Software Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

The American statistician

With the rapid deployment of cloud platforms, high service reliability is of critical importance. An industrial cloud platform contains a huge number of disks, and disk failure is a common cause of service unreliability. In recent years, many machine learning based disk failure prediction approaches have been proposed, and they can predict disk failures based on disk status data before the failures actually happen. In this way, proactive actions can be taken in advance to improve service reliability. However, existing approaches treat each disk individually and do not explore the influence of the neighboring disks. In this paper, we propose Neighborhood-Temporal Attention Model (NTAM), a novel deep learning based approach to disk failure prediction. When predicting whether or not a disk will fail in near future, NTAM is a novel approach that not only utilizes a disk’s own status data, but also considers its neighbors’ status data. Moreover, NTAM includes a novel attention-based temporal component to capture the temporal nature of the disk status data. Besides, we propose a data enhancement method, called Temporal Progressive Sampling (TPS), to handle the extreme data imbalance issue. We evaluate NTAM on a public dataset as well as two industrial datasets collected from millions of disks in Microsoft Azure. Our experimental results show that NTAM significantly outperforms state-of-the-art competitors. Also, our empirical evaluations indicate the effectiveness of the neighborhood-ware component and the temporal component underlying NTAM as well as the effectiveness of TPS. More encouragingly, we have successfully applied NTAM and TPS to Microsoft cloud platforms (including Microsoft Azure and Microsoft 365) and obtained benefits in industrial practice.

NTAM: Neighborhood-Temporal Attention Model for Disk Failure Prediction in Cloud Platforms

In recent years, the landscape of computing paradigms has witnessed a gradual yet remarkable shift from monolithic computing to distributed and decentralized paradigms such as Internet of Things (IoT), Edge, Fog, Cloud, and Serverless. The frontiers of these computing technologies have been boosted by shift from manually encoded algorithms to Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven autonomous systems for optimum and reliable management of distributed computing resources. Prior work focuses on improving existing systems using AI across a wide range of domains, such as efficient resource provisioning, application deployment, task placement, and service management. This survey reviews the evolution of data-driven AI-augmented technologies and their impact on computing systems. We demystify new techniques and draw key insights in Edge, Fog and Cloud resource management-related uses of AI methods and also look at how AI can innovate traditional applications for enhanced Quality of Service (QoS) in the presence of a continuum of resources. We present the latest trends and impact areas such as optimizing AI models that are deployed on or for computing systems. We layout a roadmap for future research directions in areas such as resource management for QoS optimization and service reliability. Finally, we discuss blue-sky ideas and envision this work as an anchor point for future research on AI-driven computing systems. 

pdf/ai-augmented-edge-and-fog-computing-trends-and-challenges-3fp03ztr.pdf

AI Augmented Edge and Fog Computing: Trends and Challenges

Combinatorial interaction testing (CIT) is an important technique for testing highly configurable software systems with demonstrated effectiveness in practice. The goal of CIT is to generate test cases covering the interactions of configuration options, under certain hard constraints. In this context, constrained covering arrays (CCAs) are frequently used as test cases in CIT. Constrained Covering Array Generation (CCAG) is an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem, solving which requires an effective method for generating small CCAs. In particular, effectively solving t-way CCAG with t ≥ 4 is even more challenging. Inspired by the success of automated algorithm configuration and automated algorithm selection in solving combinatorial optimization problems, in this paper, we investigate the efficacy of automated algorithm configuration and automated algorithm selection for the CCAG problem, and propose a novel, automated CCAG approach called AutoCCAG. Extensive experiments on public benchmarks show that AutoCCAG can find much smaller-sized CCAs than current state-of-the-art approaches, indicating the effectiveness of AutoCCAG. More encouragingly, to our best knowledge, our paper reports the first results for CCAG with a high coverage strength (i.e., 5-way CCAG) on public benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that AutoCCAG can bring considerable benefits in testing highly configurable software systems.

AutoCCAG: An Automated Approach to Constrained Covering Array Generation

Multi-search-routes-based methods for minimizing makespan of homogeneous and heterogeneous resources in Cloud computing

Virtual machine (VM) provisioning is a common and critical problem in cloud computing. In industrial cloud platforms, there are a huge number of VMs provisioned per day. Due to the complexity and resource constraints, it needs to be carefully optimized to make cloud platforms effectively utilize the resources. Moreover, in practice, provisioning a VM from scratch requires fairly long time, which would degrade the customer experience. Hence, it is advisable to provision VMs ahead for upcoming demands. In this work, we formulate the practical scenario as the predictive VM provisioning (PreVMP) problem, where upcoming demands are predicted in advance, and then the VM provisioning plan is optimized based on predicted demands. Further, we propose Uncertainty-Aware Heuristic Search (UAHS) for PreVMP. UAHS first models the prediction uncertainty, and then utilizes the prediction uncertainty in optimization. Moreover, UAHS leverages Bayesian optimization to interact prediction and optimization to improve its performance. Extensive experiments show that UAHS performs much better than state-of-the-art competitors on two public real-world datasets and an industrial dataset. UAHS has been successfully applied in an industrial public cloud platform and brought practical benefits in real-world applications.

/pdf/intelligent-virtual-machine-provisioning-in-cloud-computing-13ff8wuxzz.pdf

Intelligent Virtual Machine Provisioning in Cloud Computing

The optimization of resource is crucial for the operation of public cloud systems such as Microsoft Azure, as well as servers dedicated to the workloads of large customers such as Microsoft 365. Those optimization tasks often need to take unknown parameters into consideration and can be formulated as Prediction+Optimization problems. This paper proposes a new Prediction+Optimization method named Correlation-Aware Heuristic Search (CAHS) that is capable of accounting for the uncertainty in unknown parameters and delivering effective solutions to difficult optimization problems. We apply this method to solving the predictive virtual machine (VM) provisioning (PreVMP) problem, where the VM provisioning plans are optimized based on the predicted demands of different VM types, to ensure rapid provisions upon customers' requests and to pursue high resource utilization. Unlike the current state-of-the-art PreVMP approaches that assume independence among the demands for different VM types, CAHS incorporates demand correlation when conducting prediction and optimization in a novel and effective way. Our experiments on two public benchmarks and one industrial benchmark demonstrate that CAHS can achieve better performance than its nine state-of-the-art competitors. CAHS has been successfully deployed in Microsoft Azure and significantly improved its performance. The main ideas of CAHS have also been leveraged to improve the efficiency and the reliability of the cloud services provided by Microsoft 365.

/pdf/correlation-aware-heuristic-search-for-intelligent-virtual-49dm279fqb.pdf

Correlation-Aware Heuristic Search for Intelligent Virtual Machine Provisioning in Cloud Systems

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Intelligent Virtual Machine Provisioning in Cloud Computing

AutoCCAG: An Automated Approach to Constrained Covering Array Generation

Correlation-Aware Heuristic Search for Intelligent Virtual Machine Provisioning in Cloud Systems