Commonly used data-driven models for landslide susceptibility prediction (LSP) can be mainly classified as heuristic, general statistical or machine learning models. This study plans to compare the prediction performance of these data-driven models on the landslide susceptibility mapping, thus further to explore the inherently features of these data-driven models. As a result, a more accurate and reliable LSP can be realized through choosing an optimal data-based model. A heuristic model represented by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a general statistical model represented by the general linear model (GLM) and information value (IV) model, and machine learning models represented by binary logistic regression (BLR), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), back-propagation neural network (BPNN), support vector machine (SVM) and C5.0 decision tree (C5.0 DT) are adopted in this study. Shicheng County in China is used as the study area. In total, 369 landslides identified through field investigation are classified as training (70%) and testing datasets (30%). Next, 13 landslide conditioning factors (elevation, slope, aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, relief amplitude, total surface radiation, population density, Normalized difference vegetation index, distance to river, topographic wetness index and rock types) are acquired from data sources of the free remote sensing images, Digital Elevation Model, field investigation and government reports. The correlations between these conditioning factors and the landslide locations are determined by frequency ratio analysis. Then, the landslide susceptibility indexes (LSIs) calculated by the eight trained models are imported into GIS software to produce landslide susceptibility maps of Shicheng County. Finally, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the calculated LSIs are applied to assess the LSP performance of the present eight models. The testing results show that these eight models generate reasonable LSP results as a whole, further showing that the C5.0 DT is of the highest prediction accuracy with an AUC value of 0.868, followed by the SVM (0.813), BPNN (0.803), MLP (0.792), BLR (0.784), GLM (0.779), IV (0.774) and AHP (0.773). It can be inferred that the machine learning models have higher LSP performance than general statistical and heuristic models due to its high AUC accuracy and reasonable LSIs distribution features, while general statistical model is limited by its linear analysis and heuristic model is limited by subjective weighting process.

Comparisons of heuristic, general statistical and machine learning models for landslide susceptibility prediction and mapping

Landslide susceptibility prediction (LSP) has been widely and effectively implemented by machine learning (ML) models based on remote sensing (RS) images and Geographic Information System (GIS). However, comparisons of the applications of ML models for LSP from the perspectives of supervised machine learning (SML) and unsupervised machine learning (USML) have not been explored. Hence, this study aims to compare the LSP performance of these SML and USML models, thus further to explore the advantages and disadvantages of these ML models and to realize a more accurate and reliable LSP result. Two representative SML models (support vector machine (SVM) and CHi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID)) and two representative USML models (K-means and Kohonen models) are respectively used to scientifically predict the landslide susceptibility indexes, and then these prediction results are discussed. Ningdu County with 446 recorded landslides obtained through field investigations is introduced as case study. A total of 12 conditioning factors are obtained through procession of Landsat TM 8 images and high-resolution aerial images, topographical and hydrological spatial analysis of Digital Elevation Modeling in GIS software, and government reports. The area value under the curve of receiver operating features (AUC) is applied for evaluating the prediction accuracy of SML models, and the frequency ratio (FR) accuracy is then introduced to compare the remarkable prediction performance differences between SML and USML models. Overall, the receiver operation curve (ROC) results show that the AUC of the SVM is 0.892 and is slightly greater than the AUC of the CHAID model (0.872). The FR accuracy results show that the SVM model has the highest accuracy for LSP (77.80%), followed by the CHAID model (74.50%), the Kohonen model (72.8%) and the K-means model (69.7%), which indicates that the SML models can reach considerably better prediction capability than the USML models. It can be concluded that selecting recorded landslides as prior knowledge to train and test the LSP models is the key reason for the higher prediction accuracy of the SML models, while the lack of a priori knowledge and target guidance is an important reason for the low LSP accuracy of the USML models. Nevertheless, the USML models can also be used to implement LSP due to their advantages of efficient modeling processes, dimensionality reduction and strong scalability.

/pdf/landslide-susceptibility-prediction-based-on-remote-sensing-tbrsqi4p05.pdf

Landslide Susceptibility Prediction Based on Remote Sensing Images and GIS: Comparisons of Supervised and Unsupervised Machine Learning Models

In some studies on landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM), landslide boundary and spatial shape characteristics have been expressed in the form of points or circles in the landslide inventory instead of the accurate polygon form. Different expressions of landslide boundaries and spatial shapes may lead to substantial differences in the distribution of predicted landslide susceptibility indexes (LSIs); moreover, the presence of irregular landslide boundaries and spatial shapes introduces uncertainties into the LSM. To address this issue by accurately drawing polygonal boundaries based on LSM, the uncertainty patterns of LSM modelling under two different landslide boundaries and spatial shapes, such as landslide points and circles, are compared. Within the research area of Ruijin City in China, a total of 370 landslides with accurate boundary information are obtained, and 10 environmental factors, such as slope and lithology, are selected. Then, correlation analyses between the landslide boundary shapes and selected environmental factors are performed via the frequency ratio (FR) method. Next, a support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) based on landslide points, circles and accurate landslide polygons are constructed as point-, circle- and polygon-based SVM and RF models, respectively, to address LSM. Finally, the prediction capabilities of the above models are compared by computing their statistical accuracy using receiver operating characteristic analysis, and the uncertainties of the predicted LSIs under the above models are discussed. The results show that using polygonal surfaces with a higher reliability and accuracy to express the landslide boundary and spatial shape can provide a markedly improved LSM accuracy, compared to those based on the points and circles. Moreover, a higher degree of uncertainty of LSM modelling is present in the expression of points because there are too few grid units acting as model input variables. Additionally, the expression of the landslide boundary as circles introduces errors in measurement and is not as accurate as the polygonal boundary in most LSM modelling cases. In addition, the results under different conditions show that the polygon-based models have a higher LSM accuracy, with lower mean values and larger standard deviations compared with the point- and circle-based models. Finally, the overall LSM accuracy of the RF is superior to that of the SVM, and similar patterns of landslide boundary and spatial shape affecting the LSM modelling are reflected in the SVM and RF models. 

Uncertainty pattern in landslide susceptibility prediction modelling: Effects of different landslide boundaries and spatial shape expressions

Prediction model oriented for landslide displacement with step-like curve by applying ensemble empirical mode decomposition and the PSO-ELM method

Landslide susceptibility prediction (LSP) modeling is an important and challenging problem. Landslide features are generally uncorrelated or nonlinearly correlated, resulting in limited LSP performance when leveraging conventional machine learning models. In this study, a deep-learning-based model using the long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network and conditional random field (CRF) in cascade-parallel form was proposed for making LSPs based on remote sensing (RS) images and a geographic information system (GIS). The RS images are the main data sources of landslide-related environmental factors, and a GIS is used to analyze, store, and display spatial big data. The cascade-parallel LSTM-CRF consists of frequency ratio values of environmental factors in the input layers, cascade-parallel LSTM for feature extraction in the hidden layers, and cascade-parallel full connection for classification and CRF for landslide/non-landslide state modeling in the output layers. The cascade-parallel form of LSTM can extract features from different layers and merge them into concrete features. The CRF is used to calculate the energy relationship between two grid points, and the extracted features are further smoothed and optimized. As a case study, the cascade-parallel LSTM-CRF was applied to Shicheng County of Jiangxi Province in China. A total of 2709 landslide grid cells were recorded and 2709 non-landslide grid cells were randomly selected from the study area. The results show that, compared with existing main traditional machine learning algorithms, such as multilayer perception, logistic regression, and decision tree, the proposed cascade-parallel LSTM-CRF had a higher landslide prediction rate (positive predictive rate: 72.44%, negative predictive rate: 80%, total predictive rate: 75.67%). In conclusion, the proposed cascade-parallel LSTM-CRF is a novel data-driven deep learning model that overcomes the limitations of traditional machine learning algorithms and achieves promising results for making LSPs.

Landslide Susceptibility Prediction Modeling Based on Remote Sensing and a Novel Deep Learning Algorithm of a Cascade-Parallel Recurrent Neural Network

It is significant to study the variations in the stability coefficients of hydrodynamic pressure landslides with different permeability coefficients affected by reservoir water level fluctuations and rainstorms. The Sifangbei landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir area is used as case study. Its stability coefficients are simulated based on saturated-unsaturated seepage theory and finite element analysis. The operating conditions of stability coefficients calculation are reservoir water level variations between 175 m and 145 m, different rates of reservoir water level fluctuations, and a three-day continuous rainstorm. Results show that the stability coefficient of the hydrodynamic pressure landslide decreases with the drawdown of the reservoir water level, and a rapid drawdown rate leads to a small stability coefficient when the permeability coefficient ranges from 1.16 × 10−6 m/s to 4.64 × 10−5 m/s. Additionally, the landslide stability coefficient increases as the reservoir water level increases, and a rapid increase in the water level leads to a high stability coefficient when the permeability coefficient ranges from 1.16 × 10−6 m/s to 4.64 × 10−5 m/s. The landslide stability coefficient initially decreases and then increases as the reservoir water level declines when the permeability coefficient is greater than 4.64 × 10−5 m/s. Moreover, for structures with the same landslide, the landslide stability coefficient is most sensitive to the change in the rate of reservoir water level drawdown when the permeability coefficient increases from 1.16 × 10−6 m/s to 1.16 × 10−4 m/s. Additionally, the rate of decrease in the stability coefficient increases as the permeability coefficient increases. Finally, the three-day rainstorm leads to a significant reduction in landslide stability, and the rate of decrease in the stability coefficient initially increases and then decreases as the permeability coefficient increases.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/7/450/pdf

Stability Analysis of Hydrodynamic Pressure Landslides with Different Permeability Coefficients Affected by Reservoir Water Level Fluctuations and Rainstorms

It is important to determine the soil–water characteristic curve (SWCC) for analyzing slope seepage and stability under the conditions of rainfall. However, SWCCs exhibit high uncertainty because of complex influencing factors, which has not been previously considered in slope seepage and stability analysis under conditions of rainfall. This study aimed to evaluate the uncertainty of the SWCC and its effects on the seepage and stability analysis of an unsaturated soil slope under conditions of rainfall. The SWCC model parameters were treated as random variables. An uncertainty evaluation of the parameters was conducted based on the Bayesian approach and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Observed data from granite residual soil were used to test the uncertainty of the SWCC. Then, different confidence intervals for the model parameters of the SWCC were constructed. The slope seepage and stability analysis under conditions of rainfall with the SWCC of different confidence intervals was investigated using finite element software (SEEP/W and SLOPE/W). The results demonstrated that SWCC uncertainty had significant effects on slope seepage and stability. In general, the larger the percentile value, the greater the reduction of negative pore-water pressure in the soil layer and the lower the safety factor of the slope. Uncertainties in the model parameters of the SWCC can lead to obvious errors in predicted pore-water pressure profiles and the estimated safety factor of the slope under conditions of rainfall.

Uncertainty of the Soil–Water Characteristic Curve and Its Effects on Slope Seepage and Stability Analysis under Conditions of Rainfall Using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

In order to determine the effect of internal cracks on the tensile failure of materials, a hybrid finite–discrete element method was used to analyze the Brazilian disc test with cracks of different angles. When the pre-crack angle is between 0° and 60°, the wing crack is initiated from the pre-crack end. When the pre-crack is 90°, the crack initiated from the pre-crack center. When the pre-crack angle is between 0° and 60°, the maximum principal stress and plastic strain are concentrated at the pre-crack end. When the pre-crack angle is 90°, the maximum principal stress and plastic strain are concentrated in the pre-crack center. As the crack angle increased from 0° to 90°, the failure mode of Brazilian discs with cracks transits from splitting into two parts to splitting into four parts. The influence of crack length is further studied. When the crack length is less than 5 mm, the crack angle has little influence on the disc failure mode; Brazilian discs with cracks of different angles undergoes splitting failure along the loading axis. When the crack length is larger than 5 mm, the crack angle has a great effect on the disc failure mode.

/pdf/fracture-process-and-failure-mode-of-brazilian-discs-with-1ute0feq.pdf

Fracture Process and Failure Mode of Brazilian Discs with Cracks of Different Angles: A Numerical Study

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Stability Analysis of Hydrodynamic Pressure Landslides with Different Permeability Coefficients Affected by Reservoir Water Level Fluctuations and Rainstorms

Uncertainty of the Soil–Water Characteristic Curve and Its Effects on Slope Seepage and Stability Analysis under Conditions of Rainfall Using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

Fracture Process and Failure Mode of Brazilian Discs with Cracks of Different Angles: A Numerical Study