Initialized Earth System predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction model in a state as consistent as possible to observations and running it forward in time for up to 10 years. Skilful predictions at time slices from subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), seasonal to interannual (S2I) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) offer information useful for various stakeholders, ranging from agriculture to water resource management to human and infrastructure safety. In this Review, we examine the processes influencing predictability, and discuss estimates of skill across S2S, S2I and S2D timescales. There are encouraging signs that skilful predictions can be made: on S2S timescales, there has been some skill in predicting the Madden–Julian Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation; on S2I, in predicting the El Nino–Southern Oscillation; and on S2D, in predicting ocean and atmosphere variability in the North Atlantic region. However, challenges remain, and future work must prioritize reducing model error, more effectively communicating forecasts to users, and increasing process and mechanistic understanding that could enhance predictive skill and, in turn, confidence. As numerical models progress towards Earth System models, initialized predictions are expanding to include prediction of sea ice, air pollution, and terrestrial and ocean biochemistry that can bring clear benefit to society and various stakeholders. Initialized climate predictions offer distinct benefits for multiple stakeholders. This Review discusses initialized prediction on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), seasonal to interannual (S2I) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) timescales, highlighting potential for skilful predictions in the years to come.

/pdf/initialized-earth-system-prediction-from-subseasonal-to-7fvc8c48qe.pdf

Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are strong natural hazards that are important for local and global air–sea interactions. This manuscript briefly reviews the knowledge about the upper ocean responses to TCs, including the current, surface wave, temperature, salinity and biological responses. TCs usually cause upper ocean near-inertial currents, increase strong surface waves, cool the surface ocean, warm subsurface ocean, increase sea surface salinity and decrease subsurface salinity, causing plankton blooms. The upper ocean response to TCs is controlled by TC-induced mixing, advection and surface flux, which usually bias to the right (left) side of the TC track in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. The upper ocean response usually recovers in several days to several weeks. The characteristics of the upper ocean response mainly depend on the TC parameters (e.g. TC intensity, translation speed and size) and environmental parameters (e.g. ocean stratification and eddies). In recent decades, our knowledge of the upper ocean response to TCs has improved because of the development of observation methods and numerical models. More processes of the upper ocean response to TCs can be studied by researchers in the future.

/pdf/upper-ocean-response-to-tropical-cyclones-a-review-4wysg0mu70.pdf

Upper ocean response to tropical cyclones: a review

The current generation of climate models does not properly resolve oceanic mesoscale processes in tropical oceans, such as tropical instability waves. The associated deficit in explicit vertical and lateral heat exchange can further contribute to large-scale equatorial temperature biases, which in turn impact the representation of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its sensitivity to greenhouse warming. Here, using a mesoscale-resolving global climate model with an improved representation of tropical climate, we show that a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 causes a robust weakening of future simulated ENSO sea surface temperature variability. This sensitivity is caused mainly by stronger latent heat flux damping and weaker advective feedbacks. Stratification-induced weakening of tropical instability wave activity and the corresponding growth of ENSO instability partly offset the effect of other negative dynamical feedbacks. Our results demonstrate that previous lower-resolution greenhouse warming projections did not adequately simulate important ENSO-relevant ocean mesoscale processes. High-resolution climate models exhibit reduced tropical Pacific mean-state biases due to better representation of ocean mesoscale processes, like tropical instability waves. With climate warming, these improved dynamics project weaker El Nino/Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature variability.

Future high-resolution El Niño/Southern Oscillation dynamics

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is produced by basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific, with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide. In the past, extensive and intensive international efforts have been devoted to coupled model developments for ENSO studies. A hierarchy of coupled ocean-atmosphere models has been formulated; in terms of their complexity, they can be categorized into intermediate coupled models (ICMs), hybrid coupled models (HCMs), and fully coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). ENSO modeling has made signifiscant progress over the past decades, reaching a stage where coupled models can now be used to successfully predict ENSO events 6 months to one year in advance. Meanwhile, ENSO exhibits great diversity and complexity as observed in nature, which still cannot be adequately captured by current state-of-the-art coupled models, presenting a challenge to ENSO modeling. We primarily reviewed the long-term efforts in ENSO modeling continually and steadily made at different institutions in China; some selected representative examples are presented here to review the current status of ENSO model developments and applications, which have been actively pursued with noticeable progress being made recently. As ENSO simulations are very sensitive to model formulations and process representations etc., dedicated efforts have been devoted to ENSO model developments and improvements. Now, different ocean-atmosphere coupled models have been available in China, which exhibit good model performances and have already had a variety of applications to climate modeling, including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Nevertheless, large biases and uncertainties still exist in ENSO simulations and predictions, and there are clear rooms for their improvements, which are still an active area of researches and applications. Here, model performances of ENSO simulations are assessed in terms of advantages and disadvantages with these differently formulated coupled models, pinpointing to the areas where they need to be further improved for ENSO studies. These analyses provide valuable guidance for future improvements in ENSO simulations and predictions.

A review of progress in coupled ocean-atmosphere model developments for ENSO studies in China

Remarkable progress has been made in observations, theories, and simulations of the ocean-atmosphere system, laying a solid foundation for the improvement of short-term climate prediction, among which Chinese scientists have made important contributions. This paper reviews Chinese research on tropical air-sea interaction, ENSO dynamics, and ENSO prediction in the past 70 years. Review of the tropical air-sea interaction mainly focuses on four aspects: characteristics of the tropical Pacific climate system and ENSO; main modes of tropical Indian Ocean SSTs and their interactions with the tropical Pacific; main modes of tropical Atlantic SSTs and inter-basin interactions; and influences of the mid-high-latitude air-sea system on ENSO. Review of the ENSO dynamics involves seven aspects: fundamental theories of ENSO; diagnosis and simulation of ENSO; the two types of ENSO; mechanisms of ENSO initiation; the interactions between ENSO and other phenomena; external forcings and teleconnections; and climate change and the ENSO response. The ENSO prediction part briefly summarizes the dynamical-statistical methods used in ENSO prediction, as well as the operational ENSO prediction systems and their applications. Lastly, we discuss some of the issues in these areas that are in need of further study.

A Review of Research on Tropical Air-Sea Interaction, ENSO Dynamics, and ENSO Prediction in China

Numerous works have indicated that westerly wind bursts (WWBs) have a significant contribution to the development of El Nino events. However, the simulation of WWBs commonly suffers from large biases in the current generation of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), limiting our ability to predict El Nino events. In this study, we introduce a WWBs parameterization scheme into the global coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) to improve the representation of WWBs and to study the impacts of WWBs on El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics. It is found that CESM with the WWBs parameterization scheme can generate more realistic characteristics of WWBs, in particular their location and seasonal variation of occurrence. With the parameterized WWBs, the skewness of the Nino 3 index is increased, in better agreement with observation. Eastern Pacific El Nino and central Pacific El Nino events could be successfully reproduced in the model run with WWBs parameterization. Further diagnoses show that the enhanced horizontal advection in the central Pacific and vertical advection in the eastern Pacific, both of which are triggered by WWBs, are crucial factors responsible for the improvements in ENSO simulation. Clearly, WWBs have important effects on ENSO asymmetry and ENSO diversity.

/pdf/a-study-of-the-effects-of-westerly-wind-bursts-on-enso-based-38o628tekk.pdf

A study of the effects of westerly wind bursts on ENSO based on CESM

Numerous studies have investigated the role of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in modulating the activity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western Pacific on interannual time scales, b...

/pdf/effects-of-tropical-cyclones-on-enso-3yoomtwxdw.pdf

Effects of Tropical Cyclones on ENSO

Effects of Semistochastic Westerly Wind Bursts on ENSO Predictability

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a severe cerebrovascular disease, which impairs patients' white matter even after timely clinical interventions. Indicated by studies in the past decade, ICH-induced white matter injury (WMI) is closely related to neurological deficits; however, its underlying mechanism and pertinent treatment are yet insufficient. We gathered two datasets (GSE24265 and GSE125512), and by taking an intersection among interesting genes identified by weighted gene co-expression networks analysis, we determined target genes after differentially expressing genes in two datasets. Additional single-cell RNA-seq analysis (GSE167593) helped locate the gene in cell types. Furthermore, we established ICH mice models induced by autologous blood or collagenase. Basic medical experiments and diffusion tensor imaging were applied to verify the function of target genes in WMI after ICH. Through intersection and enrichment analysis, gene SLC45A3 was identified as the target one, which plays a key role in the regulation of oligodendrocyte differentiation involving in fatty acid metabolic process, etc. after ICH, and single-cell RNA-seq analysis also shows that it mainly locates in oligodendrocytes. Further experiments verified overexpression of SLC45A3 ameliorated brain injury after ICH. Therefore, SLC45A3 might serve as a candidate therapeutic biomarker for ICH-induced WMI, and overexpression of it may be a potential approach for injury attenuation. 

/pdf/slc45a3-serves-as-a-potential-therapeutic-biomarker-to-3eo14yw1.pdf

SLC45A3 Serves as a Potential Therapeutic Biomarker to Attenuate White Matter Injury After Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Polarization of microglia/macrophages toward the pro-inflammatory phenotype is a crucial contributor to neuroinflammation after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Mer belongs to the TAM receptor tyrosine kinases family, which is known to play a significant role in the resolution of inflammation. However, the effect and mechanism of Mer after SAH remain unclear. In this study, we explored the effect of Mer on modulating the microglia/macrophage phenotype and neuroinflammation and possible potential mechanism after SAH.Endovascular perforation model of SAH was performed. There are 3 parts in this study. Firstly, the time course of Mer expression was determined within 72 hours after SAH. Secondly, the effect of Mer downregulation on brain water content, neurological function, and microglial polarization was evaluated at 24 h after SAH. Thirdly, the neuroprotective effects of pharmacological Mer agonist were assessed.The expression of Mer increased after SAH, and was prominently localized in microglia/macrophages. Treatment with Mer siRNA increased pro-inflammatory phenotype and decreased anti-inflammatory phenotype of microglia/macrophage, thus resulted in exacerbation of neurological deficits and brain edema after SAH. Mechanistically, the downregulation of Mer inhibited the downstream anti-inflammatory signals, SOCS1/SOCS3, by decreasing phosphorylated STATs.Mer is involved in the microglia/macrophage polarization and inflammation resolution after SAH, and that mechanism, at least in part, may contribute to the involvement of the STATs/SOCSs pathway. 

Inhibition of Mer exacerbates early brain injury by regulating microglia/macrophage phenotype after subarachnoid hemorrhage in mice.

Handle everyday research tasks with reliable, citation-backed results

Your personal Research Agent to handle research tasks with citation-backed results

Popular Tasks used by Researchers

How can I help with your research?

Meet SciSpace

Get more enhanced response by uploading the PDFs you want me to reference.

No relevant PDFs in your library

SciSpace is the AI research assistant for academics. Run systematic literature reviews on 280M+ papers, and write papers with cited sources. Trusted by 1M+ students, PhDs & researchers.

SciSpace | AI for Research

Analyze PDFs

Code & Manuscripts

Funding & Grants

Literature & Patents

Medical & Clinical Data

Systematic Review

Visualize & Present

Web & Data

Build a Google Scholar-like website for your research.

Build a website

Create charts and images for your research

Create a Chart

Write a paper for submission to a journal

Draft a manuscript

Patent Search

Design eye-catching scientific posters in minutes.

Scientific Poster Generation

Systematic Literature Review

One task is running at the moment. Your messages will be shown right after.

Drag and drop or click here to browse

Loved by <highlight>1 million+</highlight> researchers

Extract a list of specific topics and their sources from unstructured text

Topics

Compare and analyze relevant papers that matches with your search

Papers

Get insights from PDFs and bookmarked papers from your library

My library

Recent searches

Try searching for:

Catch AI-generated content in scholarly and non-scholarly content

{ai} Detector

Ai Writer

Get PDF Summaries, highlighted text explanations 

Chat with PDF

Effortlessly create in-text citations and bibliographies in APA and 2,500 other formats

Citation generator

Get explanations, summaries, and answers on academic papers

Ease up your research workflow with {scispace}'s cohort of exciting AI tools

Elevate your academic writing skills and convey your ideas the way you want

Paraphraser

Explore our range of reading and writing tools

Your file is being prepared and should be ready in a few minutes. If it's a large file, it might take a bit longer. You can close this window, and we'll email you the file when it's done.

You have reached a maximum limit of <strong>{limit}</strong> columns in the table. Remove at least <strong>1</strong> column to add or create another one.

Xiaoxiao Tan

Author Tools

Chat about Author