In March and early April 2009, a new swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) emerged in Mexico and the United States. During the first few weeks of surveillance, the virus spread worldwide to 30 countries (as of May 11) by human-to-human transmission, causing the World Health Organization to raise its pandemic alert to level 5 of 6. This virus has the potential to develop into the first influenza pandemic of the twenty-first century. Here we use evolutionary analysis to estimate the timescale of the origins and the early development of the S-OIV epidemic. We show that it was derived from several viruses circulating in swine, and that the initial transmission to humans occurred several months before recognition of the outbreak. A phylogenetic estimate of the gaps in genetic surveillance indicates a long period of unsampled ancestry before the S-OIV outbreak, suggesting that the reassortment of swine lineages may have occurred years before emergence in humans, and that the multiple genetic ancestry of S-OIV is not indicative of an artificial origin. Furthermore, the unsampled history of the epidemic means that the nature and location of the genetically closest swine viruses reveal little about the immediate origin of the epidemic, despite the fact that we included a panel of closely related and previously unpublished swine influenza isolates. Our results highlight the need for systematic surveillance of influenza in swine, and provide evidence that the mixing of new genetic elements in swine can result in the emergence of viruses with pandemic potential in humans.

/pdf/origins-and-evolutionary-genomics-of-the-2009-swine-origin-45g31nrsi1.pdf

Origins and evolutionary genomics of the 2009 swine-origin H1N1 influenza A epidemic.

The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza of the H5N1 subtype in Asia, which has subsequently spread to Russia, the Middle East, Europe, and Africa, has put increased focus on the role of wild birds in the persistence of influenza viruses. The ecology, epidemiology, genetics, and evolution of pathogens cannot be fully understood without taking into account the ecology of their hosts. Here, we review our current knowledge on global patterns of influenza virus infections in wild birds, discuss these patterns in the context of host ecology and in particular birds' behavior, and identify some important gaps in our current knowledge.

/pdf/global-patterns-of-influenza-a-virus-in-wild-birds-45p3uenzex.pdf

Global patterns of influenza A virus in wild birds

Avian influenza A (H5N1) viruses cause severe disease in humans, but the basis for their virulence remains unclear. In vitro and animal studies indicate that high and disseminated viral replication is important for disease pathogenesis. Laboratory experiments suggest that virus-induced cytokine dysregulation may contribute to disease severity. To assess the relevance of these findings for human disease, we performed virological and immunological studies in 18 individuals with H5N1 and 8 individuals infected with human influenza virus subtypes. Influenza H5N1 infection in humans is characterized by high pharyngeal virus loads and frequent detection of viral RNA in rectum and blood. Viral RNA in blood was present only in fatal H5N1 cases and was associated with higher pharyngeal viral loads. We observed low peripheral blood T-lymphocyte counts and high chemokine and cytokine levels in H5N1-infected individuals, particularly in those who died, and these correlated with pharyngeal viral loads. Genetic characterization of H5N1 viruses revealed mutations in the viral polymerase complex associated with mammalian adaptation and virulence. Our observations indicate that high viral load, and the resulting intense inflammatory responses, are central to influenza H5N1 pathogenesis. The focus of clinical management should be on preventing this intense cytokine response, by early diagnosis and effective antiviral treatment.

/pdf/fatal-outcome-of-human-influenza-a-h5n1-is-associated-with-2li6tz2o9n.pdf

Fatal outcome of human influenza A (H5N1) is associated with high viral load and hypercytokinemia

Influenza viruses cause annual epidemics and occasional pandemics that have claimed the lives of millions. The emergence of new strains will continue to pose challenges to public health and the scientific communities. A prime example is the recent emergence of swine-origin H1N1 viruses that have transmitted to and spread among humans, resulting in outbreaks internationally. Efforts to control these outbreaks and real-time monitoring of the evolution of this virus should provide us with invaluable information to direct infectious disease control programmes and to improve understanding of the factors that determine viral pathogenicity and/or transmissibility.

/pdf/emergence-and-pandemic-potential-of-swine-origin-h1n1-3dy3x98p24.pdf

Emergence and pandemic potential of swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus.

Influenza viruses are significant human respiratory pathogens that cause both seasonal, endemic infections and periodic, unpredictable pandemics. The worst pandemic on record, in 1918, killed approximately 50 million people worldwide. Human infections caused by H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses have raised concern about the emergence of another pandemic. The histopathology of fatal influenza virus pneumonias as documented over the past 120 years is reviewed here. Strikingly, the spectrum of pathologic changes described in the 1918 influenza pandemic is not significantly different from the histopathology observed in other less lethal pandemics or even in deaths occurring during seasonal influenza outbreaks.

The Pathology of Influenza Virus Infections

Avian influenza viruses have adapted to human hosts, causing pandemics in humans. The key host-specific amino acid mutations required for an avian influenza virus to function in humans are unknown. Through multiple-sequence alignment and statistical testing of each aligned amino acid, we identified markers that discriminate human influenza viruses from avian influenza viruses. We applied strict thresholds to select only markers which are highly preserved in human influenza virus isolates over time. We found that a subset of these persistent host markers exist in all human pandemic influenza virus sequences from 1918, 1957, and 1968, while others are acquired as the virus becomes a seasonal influenza virus. We also show that human H5N1 influenza viruses are significantly more likely to contain the amino acid predominant in human strains for a few persistent host markers than avian H5N1 influenza viruses. This sporadic enrichment of amino acids present in human-hosted viruses may indicate that some H5N1 viruses have made modest adaptations to their new hosts in the recent past. The markers reported here should be useful in monitoring potential pandemic influenza viruses.

Persistent Host Markers in Pandemic and H5N1 Influenza Viruses

The spread of H5N1 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) from China to Europe has raised global concern about their potential to infect humans and cause a pandemic. In spite of their substantial threat to human health, remarkably little AIV whole-genome information is available. We report here a preliminary analysis of the first large-scale sequencing of AIVs, including 2196 AIV genes and 169 complete genomes. We combine this new information with public AIV data to identify new gene alleles, persistent genotypes, compensatory mutations, and a potential virulence determinant.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/311/5767/1576.full.pdf

Large-Scale Sequence Analysis of Avian Influenza Isolates

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Persistent Host Markers in Pandemic and H5N1 Influenza Viruses

Large-Scale Sequence Analysis of Avian Influenza Isolates