http://www.thelancet.com/article/S2589750022001546/pdf

Leveraging electronic health records for data science: common pitfalls and how to avoid them.

Objective This study aims to evaluate the accuracy of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score on different days in predicting the mortality of critically ill patients to identify the best time point for the APACHE II score. Methods The demographic and clinical data are retrieved from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV dataset. APACHE II scores on days 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 14, and 28 of hospitalization are calculated, and their performance is evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) analysis. The cut-off for defining the high risk of mortality is determined using Youden's index. The APACHE II score on day 3 is the best time point to predict hospital mortality of ICU patients. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test is then applied to evaluate the calibration of the day 3 APACHE II score. Results We recruited 6,374 eligible subjects from the MIMIC-IV database. Day 3 is the optimal time point for obtaining the APACHE II score to predict the hospital mortality of patients. The best cut-off for day 3 APACHE II score is 17. When APACHE II score ≥17, the sensitivity for the non-survivors and survivors is 92.8 and 82.2%, respectively, and the positive predictive value (PPV) is 23.1%. When APACHE II socre <17, the specificity for non-survivors and survivors is 90.1 and 80.2%, respectively, and the negative predictive value (NPV) is 87.8%. When day-3 APACHE II is used to predict the hospital mortality, the AUROC is 0.743 (P <0.001). In the ≥17 group, the sensitivity of non-survivors and survivors is 92.2 and 81.3%, respectively, and the PPV is 30.3%. In the <17 group, the specificity of non-survivors and survivors is 100.0 and 80.2%, respectively, and the NPV is 81.6%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated day-3 APACHE II has a high predicting the hospital mortality (X2 = 6.198, P = 0.625, consistency = 79.4%). However, the day-1 APACHE II has a poor calibration in predicting the hospital mortality rate (X 2 = 294.898, P <0.001). Conclusion Day-3 APACHE II score is an optimal biomarker to predict the outcomes of ICU patients; 17 is the best cut-off for defining patients at high risk of mortality.

/pdf/dynamic-apache-ii-score-to-predict-the-outcome-of-intensive-2i1nz9eb.pdf

Dynamic APACHE II Score to Predict the Outcome of Intensive Care Unit Patients

Background Research has previously been done into the risk factors for mortality in septic shock patients. However, there has been no epidemiological study investigating the effect of the blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio (BCR) on the prognosis of critically ill septic shock patients. This study is aimed at determining the relationship between BCR and all-cause mortality in adult septic shock patients. Methods Data were extracted from the MIMIC-III database. The clinical endpoints were 28-, 90-, and 365-day all-cause mortality rates in critically ill septic shock patients. Cox proportional hazards models and subgroup analyses were used to analyze the relationship between BCR quartiles and all-cause mortality in septic shock patients. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) were calculated to evaluate how accurately BCR predicts the mortality of septic shock patients. Results Among the 2484 septic shock patients extracted from the database, 619, 563, 677, and 625 fell into the first (<14.4 mg/dL), second (≥14.4 mg/dL and <20.0 mg/dL), third (≥20.0 mg/dL and <27.3 mg/dL), and fourth (≥27.3 mg/dL) quartiles of BCR, respectively. Male and white patients accounted for 53.8% (1336 patients) and 74.8% (1857 patients) of the population, respectively. The mean age of the population was 67.7 ± 15.8 years. An inverse M-shaped relationship between BCR and mortality in septic shock patients was identified, with a value of ≥27.3 mg/dL providing the highest risk (HR = 1.596, 95% CI: 1.396-1.824, P < 0.001). In the Cox regression model adjusted for different confounding variables, BCR values in the fourth quartiles were significantly associated with increased mortality, using the first quartiles as a reference. The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) for BCR plus the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and BCR plus Acute Physiology Score III (APSIII) were 0.694 (95% CI: 0.673-0.716) and 0.724 (95% CI: 0.703-0.744), respectively. Conclusion An inverse M-shaped curve was determined between BCR and the mortality of septic shock patients. BCR was identified as a readily available and independent prognostic biomarker for septic shock patients, and higher BCRs were associated with increased mortality in these patients.

/pdf/prognostic-value-of-blood-urea-nitrogen-creatinine-ratio-for-5771rc5qhv.pdf

Prognostic Value of Blood Urea Nitrogen/Creatinine Ratio for Septic Shock: An Analysis of the MIMIC-III Clinical Database.

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a commonly used biomarker for acute inflammation that often rises during sepsis, making it a valuable diagnostic indicator for clinical practice. However, no consensus has been reached on the prognostic value of NLR for predicting the prognosis and mortality risk in adult sepsis patients. In light of this controversy, we conducted a meta-analysis to clarify the prognostic significance of NLR in adult sepsis patients. The meta-analysis was registered in the PROSPERO database (registration number CRD42023433143).We performed a comprehensive literature search in PubMed, Cochrane Library, Ovid, and Springer databases, using retrieval terms “sepsis” or “septic shock” and “prognosis” or “mortality” for studies published between January 1, 2000, and May 31, 2023. Children and neonates with sepsis were excluded from our research. Two independent researchers conducted the literature search and data extraction. Consensus was reached when discrepancies occurred, and in case of persistent discrepancies, the final decision was made by the research supervisor. The hazard ratio (HR) and its corresponding 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were extracted from each study included in the analysis. A random-effects model was used to synthesize all HRs and their 95% CIs. Sensitivity analysis was performed to investigate heterogeneity. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify studies that had a significant impact on the overall results of the meta-analysis. Subgroup analysis and meta-regression were performed to explore sources of heterogeneity. Egger’s test was also used to investigate publication bias in this meta-analysis.After a comprehensive literature search and screening, we included 12 studies comprising 10,811 patients for the meta-analysis. The pooled results indicated that patients with a higher NLR level were associated with a poor prognosis (Random-effects model, HR: 1.6273, 95% CI: 1.3951-1.8981). Heterogeneity testing showed significant heterogeneity (I2 = 87.2%, 95% CI: 79.5-92, p<0.0001). Sensitivity analysis was performed to investigate the sources of heterogeneity, which revealed that the omission of one highly sensitive study significantly reduced the I2 value. After removing this study, a strong association was found between a higher NLR level and poor prognosis and risk of death in adult sepsis patients (Random-effects model, HR: 1.6884, 95% CI: 1.4338-1.9882). Both subgroup analysis and meta-regression indicated that the study design and testing time of NLR were sources of heterogeneity. Egger’s test showed no obvious publication bias in this meta-analysis.NLR is a reliable and valuable biomarker for predicting prognosis and the risk of death in adult sepsis patients.[https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42023433143] PROSPERO, identifier [CRD42023433143].

Predictive value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in the prognosis and risk of death for adult sepsis patients: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES Identifying high-risk patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) is important given the high mortality rate. However, existing scoring systems lack easily accessible, low-cost and effective inflammatory markers. We aimed to identify inflammatory markers in routine blood tests to predict mortality in ICU patients and evaluate their predictive power. DESIGN Retrospective case-control study. SETTING Single secondary care centre. PARTICIPANTS We analysed data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database. A total of 21 822 ICU patients were enrolled and divided into survival and death groups based on in-hospital mortality. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES The predictive values of potential inflammatory markers were evaluated and compared using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. After identifying the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as having the best predictive ability, patients were redivided into low (≤1), medium (1-6) and high (>6) NLR groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the association between the NLR and mortality. The area under the curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to assess whether incorporating the NLR could improve the predictive power of existing scoring systems. RESULTS The NLR had the best predictive ability (AUC: 0.609; p<0.001). In-hospital mortality rates were significantly higher in the low (OR (OR): 2.09; 95% CI 1.64 to 2.66) and high (OR 1.64; 95% CI 1.50 to 1.80) NLR groups than in the medium NLR group. Adding the NLR to the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II improved the AUC from 0.789 to 0.798, with an NRI and IDI of 16.64% and 0.27%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The NLR predicted mortality in ICU patients well. Both low and high NLRs were associated with elevated mortality rates, including the NLR may improve the predictive power of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II.

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/11/11/e053548.full.pdf

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as a predictor of mortality in intensive care unit patients: a retrospective analysis of the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III Database.

Background Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte count ratio (NLCR) has been shown as a feasible parameter associated with outcomes of tumor patients and an accessible predictor of bacteremia. However, only a handful of research shed the light on the association between NLCR and outcomes of septic patients. This study is aimed to evaluate the association between NLCR and all-cause mortality in a population of adult septic patients. Methods We extracted clinical data from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-III V1.4, a free, large-scale, single-center database. NLCR was computed individually. Patients were categorized by quartiles of NLCR. The associations between NLCR quartiles and 28-day all-cause mortality in septic patients were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models and subgroup analyzes. To evaluate the accuracy of NLCR in predicting 28-day mortality of sepsis, receiver operator characteristic curves (ROC), areas under the curve (AUC), and the Youden's J Index were calculated. Other outcomes included 7-day all-cause mortality, mortality in the intensive care units (ICU), in-hospital mortality and length of ICU stay. Results A total of 3,043 eligible patients were included in the study, of which, 760, 759, 766 and 758 patients were fallen in the first quartile (≤5.89), the second quartile (>5.89, ≤10.69), the third quartile (>10.69, ≤20.25) and the fourth quartile (>20.25) of NLCR, respectively. The 7-day mortality (13.4%, 9.9%, 13.6% and 14.2%; P=0.064) showed no difference in the four quartiles. In multivariate analysis, after adjusting for confounding factors, the highest NLCR quartile (>20.25) was associated with increased 28-day all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1.22, 95% Cl: 1.01-1.49; P=0.046]. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for NLCR was 0.553 (95% CI: 0.529-0.576) for 28-day mortality. Conclusions High NLCR (>20.25) is independently related to increased 28-day all-cause mortality in adult septic patients of a limited sensibility and specificity. Further large multi-center prospective studies are needed to confirm such relationship and to validate whose clinical significance.

/pdf/the-association-between-neutrophil-to-lymphocyte-count-ratio-l1c3zuswnk.pdf

The association between neutrophil-to-lymphocyte count ratio and mortality in septic patients: a retrospective analysis of the MIMIC-III database

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The association between neutrophil-to-lymphocyte count ratio and mortality in septic patients: a retrospective analysis of the MIMIC-III database