AHP-GIS and MaxEnt for delineation of potential distribution of Arabica coffee plantation under future climate in Yunnan, China

Prediction of potentially suitable areas for the introduction of Magnolia wufengensis under climate change

Modelling the potential distribution and shifts of three varieties of Stipa tianschanica in the eastern Eurasian steppe under multiple climate change scenarios.

Almond resources are widely distributed in Central Asia; its distribution has not been studied in detail. Based on the first-hand data of field investigation, climate variables and chloroplast genome data, climatic characteristics of six almond species in China were analyzed, and the global distribution and evolutionary relationship were predicted. The six almond species are concentrated between 27.99°N and 60.47°N. Different almond species have different climatic characteristics. The climate of the almond species distribution has its characteristics, and the distribution of almond species was consistent with the fatty acid cluster analysis. All the test AUC (area under curve) values of MaxEnt model were larger than 0.92. The seven continents except for Antarctica contain suitable areas for the six almond species, and such areas account for approximately 8.08% of the total area of these six continents. Based on the analysis of chloroplast DNA and the distribution characteristics, the evolutionary relationship of the six almond species was proposed, which indicated that China was not the origin of almond. In this study, the construction of a phylogenetic tree based on the chloroplast genome and the characteristics of geographical distribution were constructed. The six almond species in China may have evolved from "Unknown almond species" through two routes. The MaxEnt model for each almond species provided satisfactory results. The prediction results can provide the important reference for Prunus dulcis cultivation, wild almond species development and protection.

/pdf/current-situation-global-potential-distribution-and-21spwn7a4g.pdf

Current Situation, Global Potential Distribution and Evolution of Six Almond Species in China.

Background Seabuckthorn carpenter moth, Eogystia hippophaecolus (Hua, Chou, Fang, & Chen, 1990), is the most important boring pest of sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides L.) in the northwest of China. It is responsible for the death of large areas of H. rhamnoides forest, seriously affecting the ecological environment and economic development in north-western China. To clarify the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus in China, the present study used the CLIMEX 4.0.0 model to project the potential distribution of the pest using historical climate data (1981-2010) and simulated future climate data (2011-2100) for China. Results Under historical climate condition, E. hippophaecolus would be found to be distributed mainly between 27° N-51° N and 74° E-134° E, with favorable and highly favorable habitats accounting for 35.2% of the total potential distribution. Under future climate conditions, E. hippophaecolus would be distributed mainly between 27° N-53° N and 74° E-134° E, with the possibility of moving in a northwest direction. Under these conditions, the proportion of the total area providing a favorable and highly favorable habitat may decrease to about 33%. Conclusion These results will help to identify the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus, thereby providing a theoretical basis for monitoring and early forecasting of pest outbreaks. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.

Climate change impacts on the potential distribution of Eogystia hippophaecolus in China.

Athetis lepigone (Moschler) is a new agronomic pest which has caused serious damages to summer maize in China. In order to effectively monitor it, it is necessary to carry-out a worldwide investigation on its potential geographical distribution. In this study, we give two ecological niche models, Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), to predict the potential geographical distribution of A. lepigone. The results indicate that the suitable areas for A. lepigone are mainly in China (Beijing, Tianjin, central and southern Hebei, northern Jiangsu, Shandong, most of Henan, northern Anhui, central and southern Shanxi, central and southern Shaanxi, small parts of north-west in Hubei, eastern Gansu, parts of Ningxia, western of Xinjiang and Dandong, and Liaoning) and other Asian countries (South Korea, North Korea and Japan). Parts of Europe (south-western Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovenia, and Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, parts of Austria, western Poland, the Czech Republic, Germany, northern Italy, Denmark, western Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, southern Finland and Sweden) are also highly suitable for A. lepigone. In addition, in the states of the USA including Michigan, New York, Chicago, Missouri, Ohio, Illinois and Indiana are also favourable for its occurrence although till now no reports about of this species has been recorded. A jackknife test in MaxEnt showed that the mean temperature of the driest quarter was the most important environmental variable affecting the distribution of this pest.

The distribution of Athetis lepigone and prediction of its potential distribution based on GARP and MaxEnt

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The distribution of Athetis lepigone and prediction of its potential distribution based on GARP and MaxEnt