The enduring challenges posed by the supply sustainability of critical metals have long served as a barrier to the low carbon energy transition and the regulation of global climate issues. This study aims to determine whether the supply of essential minerals can keep pace with the global demand associated with the shift towards low-carbon energy sources. In this study, critical metal minerals required by clean energy technology are taken as the research object, the supply and demand background of critical minerals are sorted and compared. By utilizing the genetic algorithm support vector regression (GA-SVR) predictive model, the research scrutinized the supply trends and developed twelve different supply and demand schemes under various development scenarios. These facilitated the assessment of the future supply sustainability of critical metals for clean energy technology. Results demonstrate that under a basic scenario, the global supply of lithium, cobalt, and nickel is projected to reach 200,000 tons, 300,000 tons, and 4 million tons, respectively, by 2030. Under a high supply scenario, these figures rise to 350,000 tons, 500,000 tons, and 5 million tons. From a global supply trend perspective, lithium, cobalt, and nickel resources are projected to grow by 2–4, 1–3, and 1.6–2 times, respectively. Examining supply and demand, the highest risk of supply shortages lies with lithium resources, followed by cobalt. Meanwhile, nickel faces no imminent risk of supply shortage. By 2030, if the compound annual growth rate of global demand for lithium and cobalt hits 15%, supply sustainability will reach a critical juncture, leading to a supply deficit. Lithium resources may encounter this critical demand growth rate even earlier. Although the supply risks for cobalt and nickel currently appear minimal, questions around the long-term availability and sustainability of these resources persist. Ensuring the sustainable supply of these resources necessitates a well-structured and efficient system for recycling secondary resources, technological advancements in the mining industry, and improvements in material strength. 

Global supply sustainability assessment of critical metals for clean energy technology

Bubble behaviors in nickel price: What roles do geopolitical risk and speculation play?

Abstract Decarbonisation of the automotive sector will require increased amounts of raw materials such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earth elements. Consequently, it is crucial to assess whether supply will be able to meet forecast demand within the required timescale. The automotive sector relies on complex global supply chains comprising four tiers. We have developed an integrated timeline from tier 4 (supply of raw materials) through to tier 1, the production of electric vehicles (EVs). Numerous factors, mainly economic, political, social and environmental, influence the duration of tier 4 leading to considerable variation between projects. However, our analysis demonstrates that it commonly takes more than 30 years from initial exploration to EV production. Tier 4, which is often neglected by the automotive industry, may account for 20 years of that period. This suggests that raw material supply is unlikely to match the projected demand from electrification of the automotive sector up to 2030. Reducing the duration of tier 4 will be difficult, although governments and industry can mitigate supply risks in various ways. These include multi-disciplinary international research across the supply chain and the transformation of research findings into policy and best practice. Supply chain convergence, with businesses across the supply chain working to develop long-term plans for secure and sustainable supply, will also be beneficial. In addition, global stakeholders should work together to resolve ESG challenges to supply. All these measures depend on the availability of researchers and industry personnel with appropriate skills and knowledge. 

/pdf/decarbonising-the-automotive-sector-a-primary-raw-material-1jlj3ojz.pdf

Decarbonising the automotive sector: a primary raw material perspective on targets and timescales

With the energy transition, the future demand for many metals is expected to sharply increase. We systematically reviewed studies which assessed future environmental impacts of metal supply chains. We evaluated their results regarding future impact trends, and their methods, i.e., modelling approaches, scenario variables, and data sources. Our review yielded 40 publications covering 15 metals: copper, iron, aluminium, nickel, zinc, lead, cobalt, lithium, gold, manganese, neodymium, dysprosium, praseodymium, terbium, and titanium. Metals crucial for the energy transition, e.g., lithium or neodymium, are rarely addressed, unlike major metals. Results for future environmental impacts of metals strongly depend on scenario narratives and assumptions. We found that specific impacts (per kg) may decrease driven by, e.g., greener electricity, higher recycling shares, or novel technologies. Nevertheless, this is probably insufficient to compensate for surging demand. Thus, future demand-related impacts are still likely to increase. We identified 15 scenario variables. The most common variables are background electricity mix, ore grade, recycling shares, demand, and energy efficiency. It is crucial to better understand future impacts of more metals, considering also rising demand and impacts beyond GHG emissions. We recommend improving research practices towards open and collaborative research, to enable more harmonised, reusable and accurate scenario assessments. 

Future environmental impacts of metals: A systematic review of impact trends, modelling approaches, and challenges

During the solvent extraction of metal ions from an aqueous to an organic phase, organic-soluble extractants selectively target aqueous-soluble ions for transport into the organic phase. In the case of extractants that are also soluble in the aqueous phase, our recent studies of lanthanide ion-extractant complexes at the surface of aqueous solutions suggested that ion-extractant complexation in the aqueous phase can hinder the solvent extraction process. Here, we investigate a similar phenomenon relevant to the separation of Co(II), Ni(II), and Fe(III). X-ray fluorescence near total reflection and tensiometry are used to characterize ion adsorption behavior at the surface of aqueous solutions containing water-soluble extractants, either bis(2-ethylhexyl) phosphoric acid (HDEHP) or 2-ethylhexylphosphonic acid mono-2-ethylhexyl ester (HEHEHP), as well as adsorption to a monolayer of water-insoluble extractant dihexadecyl phosphoric acid (DHDP) at the aqueous-vapor interface. Competitive adsorption of Ni(II) and Fe(III) utilizing either HDEHP or DHDP illustrates the essential feature of the recent lanthanide studies that the ion, which is preferentially extracted in liquid-liquid extraction, Fe(III), is found preferentially adsorbed to the water-vapor interface only in the presence of the water-insoluble extractant DHDP. A more subtle competition produces comparable adsorption behavior of Co(II) and Ni(II) at the surfaces of both HDEHP- and HEHEHP-aqueous solutions in spite of the known preference for Co(II) under solvent extraction conditions. Comparison experiments with a monolayer of DHDP reveal that Co(II) is preferentially adsorbed to the surface. This preference for Co(II) is also supported by molecular dynamics simulations of the potential of mean force of ions interacting with the soluble extractants in water. These results highlight the possibility that complexation of extractants and ions in the aqueous phase can alter selectivity in the solvent extraction of critical elements.

Relevance of Surface Adsorption and Aqueous Complexation for the Separation of Co(II), Ni(II), and Fe(III).

Assessing the adequacy of the global land-based mine development pipeline in the light of future high-demand scenarios: The case of the battery-metals nickel (Ni) and cobalt (Co).

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Assessing the adequacy of the global land-based mine development pipeline in the light of future high-demand scenarios: The case of the battery-metals nickel (Ni) and cobalt (Co).