This paper synthesizes what is known about the physical and biophysical impacts of climate change and their consequences for societies and development under different levels of global warming in Central Asia. Projections show mean temperatures increasing by up to 6.5 °C compared to pre-industrial by the end of this century across the region. Associated physical impacts include altered precipitation regimes, more frequent heat extremes and increasing aridity. Increasing rates of glacial and snow melt could lead to greater river runoff, but also to greater seasonality of runoff in the short term and to decreasing water availability in the medium term to long term. These changes have negative implications for the water availability in the region and for conflicting water demands between agriculture and hydropower. Climate change could mostly decrease crop yields, challenging food security, but in more northern regions there could also be positive effects. Studies on climate change impacts on energy systems are scarce and yield conflicting results, but the more regional study shows decreasing prospects for hydropower. The health of the population is already sensitive to heat extremes and is projected to be exposed to more frequent and prolonged heat waves in the future, among other potential health impacts. While the evidence for a link between climate and migration is weak, the rural-to-urban migration can be especially expected to intensify. The paper concludes that Central Asia will be severely affected by climate change even if the global mean temperature increase is limited to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, due to the potential for impacts to occur simultaneously and compound one another as well as interactions with wider development challenges, while risks will be strongly amplified if this threshold is crossed.

Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development

Key messages: Climate change has an impact on European agriculture in a number of ways. Climate change has already negatively affected the agriculture sector in Europe, and this will continue in the future. Future climate change might also have some positive effects on the sector due to longer growing seasons and more suitable crop conditions. However, the number of climate extreme events negatively affecting agriculture in Europe is projected to increase. A cascade of impacts from climate change outside Europe may affect the price, quantity and quality of products, and consequently trade patterns, which in turn may affect agricultural income in Europe. Although fodder and food security in the EU will probably not be an issue, the increase in food demand could exert pressure on food prices in the coming decades. The EU strategy on adaptation to climate change and the common agricultural policy have enabled adaptation actions in the agriculture sector. The new proposed common agricultural policy for 2021-2027 has adaptation as a clear objective, which could lead to EU Member States having to increase their financing of adaptation measures in the sector. The EU Member States have defined the agriculture sector as a priority in their national adaptation strategies or national adaptation plans. Measures at national or regional levels include awareness raising, practical measures to decrease the impacts and risks of extreme weather events, or risk-sharing strategies, and developing and implementing infrastructure for irrigation and flood protection. There are opportunities for implementing a wide variety of existing measures at farm level that aim to improve the management of soils and water, which can provide benefits for adaptation, mitigation, the environment and the economy. However, adaptation at the farm level, in many cases, does not take place because of a lack of, among other things, resources for investment, policy initiatives to adapt, institutional capacity and access to adaptation knowledge.

Climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector in Europe

Production potential in the “bread baskets” of Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Smallholder farms’ adaptation to the impacts of climate change: Evidence from China’s Loess Plateau

Maize is an important staple crop in Mexico, and the recent intensification of climate variability, in combination with non-climatic forces, has hindered increases in production, especially for smallholder farmers. This article demonstrates the influence of these drivers on maize production trends in the three states of the Yucatan Peninsula using a mixed methods approach of climatic analysis and semi-structured interviews. Climate trend analysis and generalized additive models (GAMs) demonstrate relationships between production and climatic variability, using 1980-2010 precipitation and temperature data. Data from forty interviews with government officials and representatives of farmers' associations (gathered in 2015 and 2016) highlight the influence of agricultural policy on maize production in the region. The climate trend analysis yielded mixed results, with a statistically significant negative rainfall trend for Quintana Roo and variability in maximum temperature changes across the region, with an increase in Yucatan State and Quintana Roo and a decrease in Campeche. Climate and production GAMs indicate a strong significant relationship between production and climate fluctuations for Campeche (79%) and Quintana Roo (72%) and a weaker significant relationship for the Yucatan State (31%). Informants identified precipitation variability and ineffective public policies for smallholder agricultural development as primary obstacles for maize production, including inadequate design of agricultural programs, inconsistent agricultural support, and ineffective farmers' organizations. Quantifying the influence of climate change on maize production, and the amplifying influence of national and regional agricultural policy for smallholder farmers, will inform more appropriate policy design and implementation.

/pdf/the-uneven-influence-of-climate-trends-and-agricultural-111ctntrb4.pdf

The Uneven Influence of Climate Trends and Agricultural Policies on Maize Production in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

Within any economy, agriculture is the sector that is most sensitive to climate change. In Armenia, however, the risks are even more pronounced because the majority of the rural population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods. This publication outlines the policy options available to Armenia, based on a rigorous evaluation of the impacts of climate change on agricultural systems. It provides a solid foundation for taking strategic and, in many cases, immediate action to implement climate-smart agriculture in the country. Specifically, this report provides a menu of options for climate change adaptation in the agricultural and water resources sectors, along with specific recommended actions that are tailored to distinct agricultural regions within Armenia. These recommendations reflect the results of three inter-related activities, conducted jointly by the expert team and local partners: (1) quantitative economic modeling of baseline conditions and the effects of certain adaptation options; (2) qualitative analysis conducted by the expert team of agronomists, crop modelers, and water resource experts; and (3) input from a series of participatory workshops for farmers in each of the agricultural regions. This report provides a summary of the methods, data, results, and recommendations for each of these activities, which were reviewed by local counterparts at the October 11, 2012, National Dissemination and Consensus Building Conference. This study is part of the World Banks Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Regional Analytical and Advisory Activities (AAA) Program on Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in ECA Agricultural Systems. Armenia is one of three countries participating in the program, with the other country participants being Azerbaijan and Georgia. The study underlines the importance and urgency of capacity-building to empower Armenia to initiate control of its own climate resilience, while also providing specific guidance to finance opportunities in the rapidly emerging climate adaptation sector. The World Bank is partnering with the Government through ongoing projects in this important area, and looks forward to continuing its engagement and support going forward.

Reducing the Vulnerability of Albania's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options

To ensure the viability and competitiveness of agriculture and forestry and sustain rural livelihoods, it is critical to take stock of the impacts of climate change on rural sectors in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) countries and implement appropriate adaptive measures. The interactions between the weather-sensitive agriculture and forestry sectors, climate change, and the natural resource base are highly complex and deserve special attention. Globally, the increased frequency of heat stress, droughts and flooding events caused by climate change threaten to reduce crop yields and livestock productivity in many areas, while increased risks of fires and pest outbreaks will have negative consequences for forests. In this paper, the authors examine the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of ECA agriculture to climate change, and provide recommendations for addressing the challenges of climate through adaptation. We have made use of the best available climate change projections to categorize countries in the region by likely agricultural sector impacts. We have also attempted to synthesize information from the literature on climate change adaptation in agriculture in order to identify the most relevant points for ECA countries, including options for technical, institutional and policy measures. Based on this initial assessment, there are plans to support World Bank clients in carrying out assessments and developing strategies at the country level in the near future.

/pdf/adaptation-to-climate-change-in-europe-and-central-asia-5d19x969sj.pdf

Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia Agriculture

This country note for Uzbekistan is part of a series of country briefs that summarize information relevant to climate change and agriculture for four pilot countries in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Region, with a particular focus on climate and crop projections, adaptation options, policy development and institutional involvement. The note series has been developed to provide a baseline of knowledge on climate change and agriculture for the pilot countries participating in the regional program on reducing vulnerability to climate change in ECA agricultural systems. For Uzbekistan, this note was shared with the Government and other agricultural sector stakeholders and used as an engagement tool for the National Awareness Raising and Consultation Workshop on reducing vulnerability to climate change in Uzbekistans agricultural systems, held in Tashkent in May 2010. Feedback and comments on the note from this consultation process have been incorporated into this updated version in collaboration with the Uzbekistan Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources (MAWR).

Uzbekistan - Climate change and agriculture country note

In recent years there has been an increased interest in investigating how technology can be used to aid the millions of people living in low-income countries [2]. Mobile phones are emerging as powerful, affordable and pervasive computing devices that can serve the needs of widely deployed applications in resource-constrained environments. Previous work has emphasized the importance of working closely with local partners and maintaining fidelity with existing paperbased processes [3, 4]. While we agree with these principles, computing technologies can provide fundamentally new capabilities that argue for changing processes to benefit from these advantages. We base this reasoning on experience in designing, developing and evaluating a mobile system to aid health workers in Tanzania in classifying and treating child illnesses. The question we face is how to introduce these new processes and improve outcomes while taking into account the effects they may have on the workforce.

Striking a Balance

This country note for Moldova is part of a series of country briefs that summarize information relevant to climate change and agriculture for four pilot countries in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Region, with a particular focus on climate and crop projections, adaptation options, policy development and institutional involvement. The note series has been developed to provide a baseline of knowledge on climate change and agriculture for the pilot countries participating in the regional program on reducing vulnerability to climate change in ECA agricultural systems. This note for Moldova was shared with the Government and other agricultural sector stakeholders and used as an engagement tool for a National Awareness Raising and Consultation Workshop, held in Chisinau in October 2009. Feedback and comments on the note from this consultation process have been incorporated into this updated version in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry (MAFI).

Moldova - Climate change and agriculture country note

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