Objective To review and appraise the validity and usefulness of published and preprint reports of prediction models for diagnosing coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in patients with suspected infection, for prognosis of patients with covid-19, and for detecting people in the general population at increased risk of covid-19 infection or being admitted to hospital with the disease. Design Living systematic review and critical appraisal by the COVID-PRECISE (Precise Risk Estimation to optimise covid-19 Care for Infected or Suspected patients in diverse sEttings) group. Data sources PubMed and Embase through Ovid, up to 1 July 2020, supplemented with arXiv, medRxiv, and bioRxiv up to 5 May 2020. Study selection Studies that developed or validated a multivariable covid-19 related prediction model. Data extraction At least two authors independently extracted data using the CHARMS (critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies) checklist; risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST (prediction model risk of bias assessment tool). Results 37 421 titles were screened, and 169 studies describing 232 prediction models were included. The review identified seven models for identifying people at risk in the general population; 118 diagnostic models for detecting covid-19 (75 were based on medical imaging, 10 to diagnose disease severity); and 107 prognostic models for predicting mortality risk, progression to severe disease, intensive care unit admission, ventilation, intubation, or length of hospital stay. The most frequent types of predictors included in the covid-19 prediction models are vital signs, age, comorbidities, and image features. Flu-like symptoms are frequently predictive in diagnostic models, while sex, C reactive protein, and lymphocyte counts are frequent prognostic factors. Reported C index estimates from the strongest form of validation available per model ranged from 0.71 to 0.99 in prediction models for the general population, from 0.65 to more than 0.99 in diagnostic models, and from 0.54 to 0.99 in prognostic models. All models were rated at high or unclear risk of bias, mostly because of non-representative selection of control patients, exclusion of patients who had not experienced the event of interest by the end of the study, high risk of model overfitting, and unclear reporting. Many models did not include a description of the target population (n=27, 12%) or care setting (n=75, 32%), and only 11 (5%) were externally validated by a calibration plot. The Jehi diagnostic model and the 4C mortality score were identified as promising models. Conclusion Prediction models for covid-19 are quickly entering the academic literature to support medical decision making at a time when they are urgently needed. This review indicates that almost all pubished prediction models are poorly reported, and at high risk of bias such that their reported predictive performance is probably optimistic. However, we have identified two (one diagnostic and one prognostic) promising models that should soon be validated in multiple cohorts, preferably through collaborative efforts and data sharing to also allow an investigation of the stability and heterogeneity in their performance across populations and settings. Details on all reviewed models are publicly available at https://www.covprecise.org/. Methodological guidance as provided in this paper should be followed because unreliable predictions could cause more harm than benefit in guiding clinical decisions. Finally, prediction model authors should adhere to the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) reporting guideline. Systematic review registration Protocol https://osf.io/ehc47/, registration https://osf.io/wy245. Readers’ note This article is a living systematic review that will be updated to reflect emerging evidence. Updates may occur for up to two years from the date of original publication. This version is update 3 of the original article published on 7 April 2020 (BMJ 2020;369:m1328). Previous updates can be found as data supplements (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1328/related#datasupp). When citing this paper please consider adding the update number and date of access for clarity.

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/369/bmj.m1328.full.pdf

Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of covid-19: systematic review and critical appraisal

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread globally in early 2020, causing the world to face an existential health crisis. Automated detection of lung infections from computed tomography (CT) images offers a great potential to augment the traditional healthcare strategy for tackling COVID-19. However, segmenting infected regions from CT slices faces several challenges, including high variation in infection characteristics, and low intensity contrast between infections and normal tissues. Further, collecting a large amount of data is impractical within a short time period, inhibiting the training of a deep model. To address these challenges, a novel COVID-19 Lung Infection Segmentation Deep Network (Inf-Net) is proposed to automatically identify infected regions from chest CT slices. In our Inf-Net, a parallel partial decoder is used to aggregate the high-level features and generate a global map. Then, the implicit reverse attention and explicit edge-attention are utilized to model the boundaries and enhance the representations. Moreover, to alleviate the shortage of labeled data, we present a semi-supervised segmentation framework based on a randomly selected propagation strategy, which only requires a few labeled images and leverages primarily unlabeled data. Our semi-supervised framework can improve the learning ability and achieve a higher performance. Extensive experiments on our COVID-SemiSeg and real CT volumes demonstrate that the proposed Inf-Net outperforms most cutting-edge segmentation models and advances the state-of-the-art performance.

/pdf/inf-net-automatic-covid-19-lung-infection-segmentation-from-3835fr5tar.pdf

Inf-Net: Automatic COVID-19 Lung Infection Segmentation from CT Scans

The very first infected novel coronavirus case (COVID-19) was found in Hubei, China in Dec. 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic has spread over 214 countries and areas in the world, and has significantly affected every aspect of our daily lives. At the time of writing this article, the numbers of infected cases and deaths still increase significantly and have no sign of a well-controlled situation, e.g., as of 13 July 2020, from a total number of around 13.1 million positive cases, 571,527 deaths were reported in the world. Motivated by recent advances and applications of artificial intelligence (AI) and big data in various areas, this paper aims at emphasizing their importance in responding to the COVID-19 outbreak and preventing the severe effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. We firstly present an overview of AI and big data, then identify the applications aimed at fighting against COVID-19, next highlight challenges and issues associated with state-of-the-art solutions, and finally come up with recommendations for the communications to effectively control the COVID-19 situation. It is expected that this paper provides researchers and communities with new insights into the ways AI and big data improve the COVID-19 situation, and drives further studies in stopping the COVID-19 outbreak.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Big Data for Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic: A Survey on the State-of-the-Arts

Coronavirus, or COVID-19, is a hazardous disease that has endangered the health of many people around the world by directly affecting the lungs. COVID-19 is a medium-sized, coated virus with a single-stranded RNA. This virus has one of the largest RNA genomes and is approximately 120 nm. The X-Ray and computed tomography (CT) imaging modalities are widely used to obtain a fast and accurate medical diagnosis. Identifying COVID-19 from these medical images is extremely challenging as it is time-consuming, demanding, and prone to human errors. Hence, artificial intelligence (AI) methodologies can be used to obtain consistent high performance. Among the AI methodologies, deep learning (DL) networks have gained much popularity compared to traditional machine learning (ML) methods. Unlike ML techniques, all stages of feature extraction, feature selection, and classification are accomplished automatically in DL models. In this paper, a complete survey of studies on the application of DL techniques for COVID-19 diagnostic and automated segmentation of lungs is discussed, concentrating on works that used X-Ray and CT images. Additionally, a review of papers on the forecasting of coronavirus prevalence in different parts of the world with DL techniques is presented. Lastly, the challenges faced in the automated detection of COVID-19 using DL techniques and directions for future research are discussed.

Automated Detection and Forecasting of COVID-19 using Deep Learning Techniques: A Review

Colloquially known as coronavirus, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), that causes CoronaVirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), has become a matter of grave concern for every country around the world. The rapid growth of the pandemic has wreaked havoc and prompted the need for immediate reactions to curb the effects. To manage the problems, many research in a variety of area of science have started studying the issue. Artificial Intelligence is among the area of science that has found great applications in tackling the problem in many aspects. Here, we perform an overview on the applications of AI in a variety of fields including diagnosis of the disease via different types of tests and symptoms, monitoring patients, identifying severity of a patient, processing covid-19 related imaging tests, epidemiology, pharmaceutical studies, etc. The aim of this paper is to perform a comprehensive survey on the applications of AI in battling against the difficulties the outbreak has caused. Thus we cover every way that AI approaches have been employed and to cover all the research until the writing of this paper. We try organize the works in a way that overall picture is comprehensible. Such a picture, although full of details, is very helpful in understand where AI sits in current pandemonium. We also tried to conclude the paper with ideas on how the problems can be tackled in a better way and provide some suggestions for future works.

/pdf/applications-of-artificial-intelligence-in-battling-against-18cfgukc2t.pdf

Applications of artificial intelligence in battling against covid-19: A literature review.

Automated quantification of abnormalities associated with COVID-19 from chest CT could help clinicians evaluate the disease and assess its severity and progression. This study proposes measures of ...

https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/pdf/10.1148/ryai.2020200048

Automated quantification of CT patterns associated with COVID-19 from chest CT

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Automated quantification of CT patterns associated with COVID-19 from chest CT