In 1997, the Journal of the American Planning Association published a pair of point–counterpoint articles now listed by the American Planning Association as “classics” in the urban planning literat...

Compactness versus Sprawl: A Review of Recent Evidence from the United States

An increasing research effort has been made on spatially disaggregated safety analysis models to meet the needs of region-level safety inspection and recently emerging transportation safety planning techniques. However, without explicitly differentiating exposure variables and risk factors, most existing studies alternate the use of crash frequency, crash rate, and crash risk to interpret model coefficients. This procedure may have resulted in the inconsistent findings in relevant studies. This study proposes a Bayesian spatial model to account for county-level variations of crash risk in Florida by explicitly controlling for exposure variables of daily vehicle miles traveled and population. A conditional autoregressive prior is specified to accommodate for the spatial autocorrelations of adjacent counties. The results show no significant difference in safety effects of risk factors on all crashes and severe crashes. Counties with higher traffic intensity and population density and a higher level of urban...

County-Level Crash Risk Analysis in Florida: Bayesian Spatial Modeling

Automated vehicles and pedestrian safety: exploring the promise and limits of pedestrian detection.

Exposure measurement in bicycle safety analysis: a review of the literature

The promotion of space sharing in order to raise the quality of community living and safety of street surroundings is increasingly accepted feature of modern urban design. In this context, the development of a shared space simulation tool is essential in helping determine whether particular shared space schemes are suitable alternatives to traditional street layouts. A simulation tool that enables urban designers to visualise pedestrians and cars trajectories, extract flow and density relation in a new shared space design, achieve solutions for optimal design features before implementation, and help getting the design closer to the system optimal. This paper presents a three-layered microscopic mathematical model which is capable of representing the behaviour of pedestrians and vehicles in shared space layouts and it is implemented in a traffic simulation tool. The top layer calculates route maps based on static obstacles in the environment. It plans the shortest path towards agents’ respective destinations by generating one or more intermediate targets. In the second layer, the Social Force Model (SFM) is modified and extended for mixed traffic to produce feasible trajectories. Since car movements are not as flexible as pedestrian movements, velocity angle constraints are included for cars. The conflicts described in the third layer are resolved by rule-based constraints for shared space users. An optimisation algorithm is applied to determine the interaction parameters of the force-based model for shared space users using empirical data. This new three-layer microscopic model can be used to simulate shared space environments and assess, for example, new street designs.

/pdf/modelling-shared-space-users-via-rule-based-social-force-12zv3pz7q9.pdf

Modelling shared space users via rule-based social force model

Problem: While design solutions aimed at enhancing the safety of pedestrians are viewed as being incompatible with those intended to improve the safety of motorists, there has been little meaningful evaluation of the issue. Instead, this disagreement is based largely on the theoretical assertion that traffic crashes are the result of random driver error, and that the only certain means for addressing safety is to design roadways to be forgiving of these errors when they occur. This perspective overlooks the possibility that crashes may instead be the product of systematic patterns of behavior associated with the characteristics of the built environment. Purpose: This study sought to discover whether urban crash incidence is the product of random error, or whether it may be influenced by characteristics of the built environment. Methods: We used negative binomial regression models to examine the relationship between several aspects of the built environment and the incidence of crashes involving motorists, ...

http://urbanhs.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/DumbaughLi_2011_Design-for-Peds-Bikes-and-Motorists.pdf

Designing for the Safety of Pedestrians, Cyclists, and Motorists in Urban Environments

This study applied negative binomial regressions to understand how the characteristics of the built environment may affect the incidence of crashes involving pedestrians and cyclists. Arterial thoroughfares, big box stores and strip commercial uses were all associated with increased risk for pedestrians and cyclists alike. Unlike earlier studies on pedestrian and cyclist crash risk, however, this study hypothesized that it was the configuration of commercial and retail uses that mattered, rather than the uses themselves. To test this, this study included a variable indicating the number of pedestrian-scaled retail uses in a community in the models. Indeed, while strip commercial uses and big box stores were a safety problem, this variable had a negative, though statistically insignificant, effect on crash incidence, suggesting that road users were modifying their behavior in these environments in a manner that prevented these crashes from occurring. Further, although earlier studies have asserted that population density was a risk factor for pedestrians and cyclists, this study found it to have a positive but weak effect on total pedestrian crashes, and no statistically meaningful effect on pedestrian killed or severely injured (KSI) crashes, nor on total or KSI crashes involving cyclists. Finally, this study found that whereas four-leg intersections were associated with increased numbers of pedestrian and cyclist crashes, three-leg intersections had no effect, or even a negative effect on crash incidence involving pedestrians and cyclists. This finding suggests that three-leg intersections may be a desirable means for increasing local street connectivity for pedestrians and cyclists without simultaneously increasing their exposure to traffic related crashes, injuries or deaths.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057%2Fudi.2013.2.pdf

The built environment and the incidence of pedestrian and cyclist crashes

This report study examines how urban form-related variables affect the incidence of crashes involving pedestrians, bicyclists, and motorists.

/pdf/examining-the-design-and-developmental-factors-associated-145opmxbv8.pdf

Examining the Design and Developmental Factors Associated with Crashes Involving Pedestrians, Cyclists, and Motorists in Urban Environments

This study applied negative binomial regressions to understand how the characteristics of the built environment may affect the incidence of crashes involving pedestrians and cyclists. Arterial thoroughfares, big box stores, and strip commercial uses were all associated with increased risk for pedestrians and cyclists alike. Unlike earlier studies on pedestrian and cyclist crash risk, however, this study hypothesized that it was the configuration of commercial and retail uses that mattered, rather than the uses themselves. To test this, this study included a variable indicating the number of pedestrian-scaled retail uses in a community in the models. And indeed, while strip commercial uses and big box stores were a safety problem, this variable had a negative, though statistically-insignificant effect on crash incidence, suggesting that road users were modifying their behavior in these environments in a manner that prevented these crashes from occurring. Further, while earlier studies have asserted that population density was a risk factor for pedestrians and cyclists, this study found it to have a positive but weak effect on total pedestrian crashes, and no statistically-meaningful effect on pedestrian killed-or-severely-injured (KSI) crashes, nor on total or KSI crashes involving cyclists. Finally, this study found that while four-leg intersections were associated with increased numbers of pedestrian and cyclist crashes, 3-leg intersections had no effect, or even a negative effect, on crash incidence involving pedestrians and cyclists. This finding suggests that 3-leg intersections may be a desirable means for increasing local street connectivity for pedestrians and cyclists without simultaneously increasing their exposure to traffic related crashes, injuries, or deaths.

The Built Environment and the Incidence of Pedestrian and Cyclist Crashes

Contemporary community design practice has focused on strategies intended to make communities safe for families with children. Comparatively little attention has been given to its effects on older adults. This study employs a series of negative binomial regression models to understand how urban form may affect the incidence of total and killed-or-severely-injured (KSI) crashes involving older drivers and pedestrians. Intersections, strip commercial uses, big-box stores, and arterial thoroughfares pose crash hazards for older motorists, while big-box stores and arterials are problematic for older pedestrians. A network of lower-speed streets was found to be associated with reductions in crashes involving older motorists and pedestrians.

Community Design and the Incidence of Crashes Involving Pedestrians and Motorists Aged 75 and Older

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