Since Shi et al. proposed that the climate in the drylands of Northwest China experienced a significant transition from a “warming and drying” trend to a “warming and wetting” trend in the 1980s, researchers have conducted numerous studies on the variations in precipitation and humidity in the region and even in arid Central Asia. In particular, the process of the “warming and wetting” trend by using obtained measurement data received much attention. However, there remain uncertainties about whether the “warming and wetting” trend has paused and what its future variations may be. In this study, we examined the spatiotemporal variations in temperature, precipitation, the aridity index (AI), vegetation, and runoff during 1950–2019. The results showed that the climate in the drylands of Northwest China and the northern Tibetan Plateau is persistently warming and wetting since the 1980s, with an acceleration since the 1990s. The precipitation/humidity variations in North China, which are mainly influenced by summer monsoon, are generally opposite to those in the drylands of Northwest China. This reverse change is mainly controlled by an anomalous anticyclone over Mongolia, which leads to an anomalous easterly wind, reduced water vapor output, and increased precipitation in the drylands of Northwest China. While it also causes an anomalous descending motion, increased water vapor divergence, and decreased precipitation in North China. Precipitation is the primary controlling factor of humidity, which ultimately forms the spatiotemporal pattern of the “westerlies-dominated climatic regime” of antiphase precipitation/humidity variations between the drylands of Northwest China and monsoonal region of North China. The primary reasons behind the debate of the “warming and wetting” trend in Northwest China were due to the use of different time series lengths, regional ranges, and humidity indices in previous analyses. Since the EC-Earth3 has a good performance for simulating precipitation and humidity in Northwest and North China. By using its simulated results, we found a wetting trend in the drylands of Northwest China under low emission scenarios, but the climate will gradually transition to a “warming and drying” trend as emissions increase. This study suggests that moderate warming can be beneficial for improving the ecological environment in the drylands of Northwest China, while precipitation and humidity in monsoon-dominated North China will persistently increase under scenarios of increased emissions. 

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11430-022-1098-x.pdf

Discussion of the “warming and wetting” trend and its future variation in the drylands of Northwest China under global warming

西北地区是全球特殊的自然地理环境区，气候变化比较独特、形成机理比较复杂、对社会和自然环境的影响比较突出。尤其，自本世纪初有研究提出气候从暖干向暖湿转型的科学认识之后，西北地区气候变化问题引起了学术界乃至社会各界的普遍关注，也兴起了对西北地区气候变化趋势、驱动机制及影响特征的广泛研究，三十多年来已积累了大量的研究成果。然而，由于以往不同研究所用资料的类型、序列长度和时空分辨率不同，所关注的时段和区域不同，认识问题的视角和维度不同，使得对西北地区气候变化存在一些分歧认识或者相悖结论，导致社会和媒体上出现一些五花八门的论调，甚至认为西北地区可能会变成“江南”或重回“汉唐”等等。鉴于此，本研究通过系统梳理西北地区气候变化研究的历史经纬，总结归纳已有的研究成果，综合考虑不同视角和不同维度，划分了西北地区增暖与干湿变化特征科学认识的六个阶段；从人类活动和大气环流两方面对西北暖湿化的驱动机制进行了概括；同时从暖湿化对生态、农业及水资源等方面的影响进行了评估；对未来的暖湿变化趋势及其可能的风险进行了预估；最后针对当前西北暖湿化研究中存在的不足和问题，提出未来研究需要从大气、水文及生态等多学科相互作用角度探讨气候暖湿化的驱动机制、暖湿化背景下极端天气气候事件的变化特征、地表水分循环对暖湿化的响应特征、暖湿化与水文和生态的耦合机制、暖湿化对水安全、生态安全及粮食安全带来的机遇和风险以及“双碳”目标下西北地区未来气候变化趋势与适应等重点科学问题上取得突破。 

西北地区气候暖湿化的研究进展与展望

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The eastward expansion of the climate humidification trend in northwest China and the synergistic influences on the circulation mechanism

The mass concentration and optical properties of black carbon aerosols over a semi–arid region in the northwest of China