▪ Abstract Individual-based models (IBMs) allow the explicit inclusion of individual variation in greater detail than do classical differential-equation and difference-equation models. Inclusion of such variation is important for continued progress in ecological and evolutionary theory. We provide a conceptual basis for IBMs by describing five major types of individual variation in IBMs: spatial, ontogenetic, phenotypic, cognitive, and genetic. IBMs are now used in almost all subfields of ecology and evolutionary biology. We map those subfields and look more closely at selected key papers on fish recruitment, forest dynamics, sympatric speciation, metapopulation dynamics, maintenance of diversity, and species conservation. Theorists are currently divided on whether IBMs represent only a practical tool for extending classical theory to more complex situations, or whether individual-based theory represents a radically new research program. We feel that the tension between these two poles of thinking can be ...

Individual-based modeling of ecological and evolutionary processes

Poaching is a widespread and well-appreciated problem for the conservation of many threatened species. Because poaching is illegal, there is strong incentive for poachers to conceal their activities, and consequently, little data on the effects of poaching on population dynamics are available. Quantifying poaching mortality should be a required knowledge when developing conservation plans for endangered species but is hampered by methodological challenges. We show that rigorous estimates of the effects of poaching relative to other sources of mortality can be obtained with a hierarchical state–space model combined with multiple sources of data. Using the Scandinavian wolf (Canis lupus) population as an illustrative example, we show that poaching accounted for approximately half of total mortality and more than two-thirds of total poaching remained undetected by conventional methods, a source of mortality we term as ‘cryptic poaching’. Our simulations suggest that without poaching during the past decade, the population would have been almost four times as large in 2009. Such a severe impact of poaching on population recovery may be widespread among large carnivores. We believe that conservation strategies for large carnivores considering only observed data may not be adequate and should be revised by including and quantifying cryptic poaching.

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2011.1275

Shoot, shovel and shut up: cryptic poaching slows restoration of a large carnivore in Europe

The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is no longer Endangered on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) storied Red List. The decision to downlist the panda to Vulnerable has its foundation in a systematic assessment of population parameters as determined by China State Forestry Administration's circa decadal national survey and other scientific outputs, compared to standardized criteria used by IUCN to determine the status of all species. This decision has not been without controversy and disagreement, perhaps reflecting disparities between how people view the term “Endangered” and the criteria established by the IUCN. Here, we explore the architecture of recovery of this iconic “Endangered” species, make transparent the process of the IUCN downlisting decision, evaluate emerging threats to pandas on the horizon, and contemplate the meaning of this milestone for endangered species conservation. Through this revelation, we find profound reasons for hope for species conservation everywhere, and a useful example of success in the making. However, this positive message comes with measured caution. The Chinese government and conservation community must maintain its focus and investment on panda conservation, and contend with strategies to address new threats. If they do not, the panda will return to “Endangered” status once again.

Panda Downlisted but not Out of the Woods

The giant panda is a global symbol of wildlife conservation that is threatened by historic and current habitat loss. Despite a great deal of research on the physiology, reproductive biology, and diet of pandas in the wild and in captivity, there is little information on wild panda mortality. Here we integrate previously unavailable data on the mortality of wild pandas. We report on three recent phases of panda mortality: deaths due to bamboo flowering in the 1970s and 1980s, surprisingly extensive poaching in the 1980s and 1990s, and a parasitic infection over the past few years. Our analyses suggest that the current most significant threat to wild panda survival is disease due to extraintestinal migration (visceral larval migrans) by an ascarid nematode. We demonstrate that the probability of death of wild pandas being caused by this disease increased significantly between 1971 and 2005 and discuss the possible factors leading to the emergence of this disease.

Parasite threat to panda conservation.

Phenotypic and genotypic characterisation of antimicrobial resistance in faecal bacteria from 30 Giant pandas

https://helda.helsinki.fi/bitstream/handle/1975/233/2003-The_implications_of_pouching.pdf?sequence=1

The implications of poaching for giant panda conservation

Plague reservoirs and their classification in natural foci of China

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The implications of poaching for giant panda conservation

Plague reservoirs and their classification in natural foci of China