Direct physical evidence is presented for an unusual event at exactly the time of extinctions in the planktonic realm. Deep-sea limestones exposed in Italy, Denmark, and New Zealand indicate iridium increases of about 30, 160, and 20 times, respectively, above the background level at precisely the time of the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinctions, 65 million years ago. Reasons are given that this iridium is of extraterrestrial origin, but did not come from a nearby supernova. A hypothesis is set forth which accounts for the extinctions and the iridium observations. One prediction of this hypothesis is verified, that the chemical composition of the boundary clay, which is thought to come from the stratospheric dust, is markedly different from that of clay mixed with the chemically similar Cretaceous and Tertiary limestones.

/pdf/extraterrestrial-cause-for-the-cretaceous-tertiary-2yoc56x8wn.pdf

Extraterrestrial Cause for the Cretaceous-Tertiary Extinction

Applied Numerical Analysis. By C.F. Gerald. Pp. xii, 340. £3·60. 1970. (Addison-Wesley.)

Acknowledgements Foreword Introduction I BACKGROUND Long-term astrophysical processes Evolution theory and the future of humanity Millenial tendencies in responses to apocalyptic threats Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks Observation selection effects and global catastrophic risks Systems-based risk analysis Catastrophes and insurance Public policy towards catastrophe II RISKS FROM NATURE Super-volcanism and other geophysical processes of catastrophic import Hazards from comets and asteroids Influence of Supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, and cosmic rays on the terrestrial environment III RISKS FROM UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES Climate change and global risk Plagues and pandemics: past, present, and future Artificial Intelligence as a positive and negative factor in global risk Big troubles, imagined and real IV RISKS FROM HOSTILE ACTS Catastrophe, social collapse, and and human extinction The continuing threat of nuclear war Catastrophic nuclear terrorism: a preventable peril Biotechnology and biosecurity Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk The totalitarian threat Author's biographies Index

Global Catastrophic Risks

Closely spaced samples from an uninterrupted calcareous pelagic sequence across the Cretaceous–Tertiary boundary reveal that the extinction of planktonic Foraminifera and nannofossils was abrupt without any previous warning in the sedimentary record, and that the moment of extinction was coupled with anomalous trace element enrichments, especially of iridium and osmium. The rarity of these two elements in the crust of the Earth indicates that an extraterrestrial source, such as the impact of a large meteorite may have provided the required amounts of iridium and osmium.

An extraterrestrial event at the Cretaceous–Tertiary boundary

A chronology of the initiation dates of major continental flood basalt volcanism is established from published potassium-argon (K-Ar) and argon-argon (Ar-Ar) ages of basaltic rocks and related basic intrusions. The dating is therefore independent of the biostratigraphic and paleomagnetic time scales. Estimated errors of the initiation dates of the volcanic episodes determined from the distributions of the radiometric ages are, approximately, + or - 4 percent. There were 11 distinct episodes during the past 250 million years. Sometimes appearing in pairs, the episodes have occurred quasi-periodically with a mean cycle time of 32 + or - 1 (estimated error of the mean) million years. The initiation dates of the episodes are close to the estimated dates of mass extinctions of marine organisms. Showers of impacting comets may be the cause.

/pdf/flood-basalt-volcanism-during-the-past-250-million-years-2c22qn8t70.pdf

Flood Basalt Volcanism During the Past 250 Million Years

Intersection with the debris of a large (50–100 km) short-period comet during the Upper Palaeolithic provides a satisfactory explanation for the catastrophe of celestial origin which has been postulated to have occurred around 12 900 BP, and which presaged a return to ice age conditions of duration ∼1300 yr. The Taurid Complex appears to be the debris of this erstwhile comet; it includes at least 19 of the brightest near-Earth objects. Subkilometre bodies in meteor streams may present the greatest regional impact hazard on time-scales of human concern.

Palaeolithic extinctions and the Taurid Complex

Spiral Arms, Comets and Terrestrial Catastrophism

Dynamical balance arguments that involve the capture of long-period comets from the Oort cloud imply that there should be ∼ 1000 times more Halley-type objects than are actually observed. If the active comets rapidly become dormant, with albedos comparable to those of known cometary surfaces, hundreds of such bodies should by now have been detected whereas in fact only a few have been found. If, on the other hand, they disintegrate to dust, we show here that the debris would create a bright, near-spherical zodiacal cloud and ∼ 15‐30 strong annual meteor showers, also contrary to observation. Here we demonstrate that the surfaces of inactive comets, if composed of loose, fluffy organic material like cometary meteoroids, develop reflectivities that are vanishingly small in visible light. The near-Earth objects may therefore be dominated by a population of fast, multi-kilometre bodies too dark to be seen with current near-Earth object surveys. Deflection strategies that assume decades or centuries of warning before impact are inapplicable to this hazard.

/pdf/extreme-albedo-comets-and-the-impact-hazard-l2xs694gui.pdf

Extreme albedo comets and the impact hazard

Mechanisms of interstellar panspermia have recently been identified whereby life, wherever it has originated, will disperse throughout the habitable zone of the Galaxy within a few billion years. This re-opens the question of where life originated. The interiors of comets, during their aqueous phase, seem to provide environments no less favourable for the origin of life than that of the early Earth. Their combined mass throughout the Galaxy overwhelms that of suitable terrestrial environments by about 20 powers of ten, while the lifetimes of friendly prebiotic environments within them exceeds that of localized terrestrial regions by another four or five powers of ten. We propose that the totality of comets around G-dwarf Sun-like stars offers an incomparably more probable setting for the origin of life than any that was available on the early Earth.

The origin of life in comets

Comet disintegration proceeds both through sublimation and discrete splitting events. The cross-sectional area of material ejected by a comet may, within days, become many times greater than that of the Earth, making encounters with such debris much more likely than collisions with the nucleus itself. The hierarchic fragmentation and sublimation of a large comet in a short period orbit may yield many hundreds of such short-lived clusters. We model this evolution with a view to assessing the probability of an encounter which might have significant terrestrial effects, through atmospheric dusting or multiple impacts. Such an encounter may have contributed to the large animal extinctions and sudden climatic cooling of 12,900 years ago, and the near-simultaneous collapse of civilisations around 2350 BC.

The hazard from fragmenting comets

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