Techno-economic analysis and Monte Carlo simulation of green hydrogen production technology through various water electrolysis technologies

Abstract. Given the urgency to decarbonize global energy systems,
governments and industry are moving ahead with efforts to increase
deployment of hydrogen technologies, infrastructure, and applications at an
unprecedented pace, including USD billions in national incentives and direct
investments. While zero- and low-carbon hydrogen hold great promise to help
solve some of the world's most pressing energy challenges, hydrogen is also
an indirect greenhouse gas whose warming impact is both widely overlooked
and underestimated. This is largely because hydrogen's atmospheric warming
effects are short-lived – lasting only a couple decades – but standard
methods for characterizing climate impacts of gases consider only the
long-term effect from a one-time pulse of emissions. For gases whose impacts
are short-lived, like hydrogen, this long-term framing masks a much stronger
warming potency in the near to medium term. This is of concern because
hydrogen is a small molecule known to easily leak into the atmosphere, and
the total amount of emissions (e.g., leakage, venting, and purging) from existing
hydrogen systems is unknown. Therefore, the effectiveness of hydrogen as a
decarbonization strategy, especially over timescales of several decades,
remains unclear. This paper evaluates the climate consequences of hydrogen
emissions over all timescales by employing already published data to assess
its potency as a climate forcer, evaluate the net warming impacts from
replacing fossil fuel technologies with their clean hydrogen alternatives,
and estimate temperature responses to projected levels of hydrogen demand.
We use the standard global warming potential metric, given its acceptance to
stakeholders, and incorporate newly published equations that more fully
capture hydrogen's several indirect effects, but we consider the effects of
constant rather than pulse emissions over multiple time horizons. We account
for a plausible range of hydrogen emission rates and include methane
emissions when hydrogen is produced via natural gas with carbon capture, usage, and storage (CCUS) (“blue”
hydrogen) as opposed to renewables and water (“green” hydrogen). For the
first time, we show the strong timescale dependence when evaluating the
climate change mitigation potential of clean hydrogen alternatives, with the
emission rate determining the scale of climate benefits or disbenefits. For
example, green hydrogen applications with higher-end emission rates (10 %)
may only cut climate impacts from fossil fuel technologies in half over the
first 2 decades, which is far from the common perception that green
hydrogen energy systems are climate neutral. However, over a 100-year
period, climate impacts could be reduced by around 80 %. On the other
hand, lower-end emissions (1 %) could yield limited impacts on the climate
over all timescales. For blue hydrogen, associated methane emissions can
make hydrogen applications worse for the climate than fossil fuel
technologies for several decades if emissions are high for both gases; however, blue hydrogen yields climate benefits over a 100-year period. While more work is needed to
evaluate the warming impact of hydrogen emissions for specific end-use cases
and value-chain pathways, it is clear that hydrogen emissions matter for the
climate and warrant further attention from scientists, industry, and
governments. This is critical to informing where and how to deploy hydrogen
effectively in the emerging decarbonized global economy.


/pdf/climate-consequences-of-hydrogen-emissions-3sjrgi6a.pdf

Climate consequences of hydrogen emissions

Global warming consequences of replacing natural gas with hydrogen in the domestic energy sectors of future low-carbon economies in the United Kingdom and the United States of America

Abstract With increasing global interest in molecular hydrogen to replace fossil fuels, more attention is being paid to potential leakages of hydrogen into the atmosphere and its environmental consequences. Hydrogen is not directly a greenhouse gas, but its chemical reactions change the abundances of the greenhouse gases methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapor, as well as aerosols. Here, we use a model ensemble of five global atmospheric chemistry models to estimate the 100-year time-horizon Global Warming Potential (GWP100) of hydrogen. We estimate a hydrogen GWP100 of 11.6 ± 2.8 (one standard deviation). The uncertainty range covers soil uptake, photochemical production of hydrogen, the lifetimes of hydrogen and methane, and the hydroxyl radical feedback on methane and hydrogen. The hydrogen-induced changes are robust across the different models. It will be important to keep hydrogen leakages at a minimum to accomplish the benefits of switching to a hydrogen economy. 

https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00857-8

A multi-model assessment of the Global Warming Potential of hydrogen

Global modeling of hydrogen using GFDL-AM4.1: Sensitivity of soil removal and radiative forcing

. The prospective future adoption of molecular hydrogen (H2) to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question of whether the adoption would have adverse effects on the stratospheric ozone. The possibility of undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on the stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART (Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers) model. Since future growth is highly uncertain, we evaluate the impact of two world evolution scenarios, one based on an IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) high-emitting scenario (A1FI) and the other on an IPCC low-emitting scenario (B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the evolution growth scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall between the above two boundary scenarios. However, the magnitude of these changes is much smaller than the increases in 2050 stratospheric ozone projected, as stratospheric ozone is expected to recover due to the limits in ozone depleting substance emissions imposed in the Montreal Protocol.

/pdf/impact-of-a-future-h-2-based-road-transportation-sector-on-186u33c202.pdf

Impact of a future H 2 -based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere – Part 2: Stratospheric ozone

. Vehicles burning fossil fuel emit a number of substances that change the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere, and contribute to global air and water pollution and climate change. For example, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted as byproducts of fossil fuel combustion are key precursors to ground-level ozone and aerosol formation. In addition, on-road vehicles are major CO 2 emitters. In order to tackle these problems, molecular hydrogen (H 2 ) has been proposed as an energy carrier to substitute for fossil fuels in the future. However, before implementing any such strategy it is crucial to evaluate its potential impacts on air quality and climate. Here, we evaluate the impact of a future (2050) H 2 -based road transportation sector on tropospheric chemistry and air quality for several possible growth and technology adoption scenarios. The growth scenarios are based on the high and low emissions Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, A1FI and B1, respectively. The technological adoption scenarios include H 2 fuel cell and H 2 internal combustion engine options. The impacts are evaluated with the Community Atmospheric Model Chemistry global chemistry transport model (CAM-Chem). Higher resolution simulations focusing on the contiguous United States are also carried out with the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ) regional chemistry transport model. For all scenarios future air quality improves with the adoption of a H 2 -based road transportation sector; however, the magnitude and type of improvement depend on the scenario. Model results show that the adoption of H 2 fuel cells would decrease tropospheric burdens of ozone (7%), CO (14%), NO x (16%), soot (17%), sulfate aerosol (4%), and ammonium nitrate aerosol (12%) in the A1FI scenario, and would decrease those of ozone (5%), CO (4%), NO x (11%), soot (7%), sulfate aerosol (4%), and ammonium nitrate aerosol (9%) in the B1 scenario. The adoption of H 2 internal combustion engines would decrease tropospheric burdens of ozone (1%), CO (18%), soot (17%), and sulfate aerosol (3%) in the A1FI scenario, and would decrease those of ozone (1%), CO (7%), soot (7%), and sulfate aerosol (3%) in the B1 scenario. In the future, people residing in the contiguous United States could expect to experience significantly fewer days of elevated levels of pollution if a H 2 fuel cell road transportation sector were to be adopted. Health benefits of transitioning to a H 2 economy for citizens in developing nations, like China and India, will be much more dramatic, particularly in megacities with severe, intensifying air-quality problems.

/pdf/impact-of-a-future-h-2-based-road-transportation-sector-on-6jc6y5ufer.pdf

Impact of a future H 2 -based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere – Part 1: Tropospheric composition and air quality

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Impact of a future H 2 -based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere – Part 2: Stratospheric ozone

Impact of a future H 2 -based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere – Part 1: Tropospheric composition and air quality